（央视财经《天下财经》）韩国的能源和食品等高度依赖进口，近期韩元对美元汇率大幅下跌，不仅导 致韩国国内油价明显走高，进口物价也创9个月来最大涨幅。 财经频道特约记者 朱鸿钰：在韩国交易所，受隔夜美股下跌、外资持续出逃等因素影响，今天（21 日）首尔外汇市场上，韩元对美元汇率开盘报1472.4韩元兑换1美元，为7个月来的最低值。近期韩元对 美元汇率持续走弱，截至昨天（20日）收盘，韩元对美元汇率在一个月内下跌约3.43%。 编辑：令文芳 韩国开发研究院（KDI）分析指出，韩元对美元汇率每下跌1个百分点，消费者物价就会上升0.04个百 分点。 受韩元贬值影响，韩国进口物价指数自7月以来连续数月走高。韩国央行本月公布的最新数据显 示，10月进口物价指数较前一个月上涨1.9%，创下自今年1月以来的最大单月涨幅。通常情况下，进口 物价会在1-3个月对消费者物价产生影响，这意味着岁末年初，韩国物价面临的上行压力正进一步加 大。 转载请注明央视财经 分析指出，一方面是美联储短期内降息的可能性降低，导致美元走强；同时，近期外资大规模抛售韩 股，统计显示，截至20日的一个月里，外资在韩国主板市场上净卖出近10万亿韩元、约合人民 ...

日元的疲软在其与欧元走势的对比中尤为凸显——欧元兑日元在周三一路升破180大关后，周四进一步 触及181.44的高位，这是自1999年欧元诞生以来的最高纪录水平。从反映日元兑多种货币实力的名义有 效汇率的日元指数来看，日元9月底以来的跌幅已达到3%，在G10货币中跌幅最大。 随着日元兑美元汇率跌至10个月低点，日本财务大臣片山皋月周三进一步加强了对日元贬值的警告力 度。她已向日本央行行长植田和男及增长战略大臣城内实确认了监测市场走势的必要性。 随着全球股市波动加剧，美元自9月以来持续上涨，导致非美货币尤其是部分亚洲货币普遍走弱，这令 部分亚洲央行是否会干预汇市，再度成为了全球市场上的一大焦点。 在这轮非美货币的贬值浪潮中，日韩货币颇为显眼地被"卷上了潮头"。其中，美元兑日元汇率隔夜已一 路升破了157关口，刷新了今年1月以来的新高。在高市早苗政府提出推行激进财政支出政策的背景下， 市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。 亚币保卫战的"好消息"：8万亿美元外储弹药充足 可以说，这一轮亚洲货币面临的贬值压力，与美元反弹和全球货币政策格局的变化有着直接关系。智通 财经本月早些时候在美元指数升破100关口时就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant depreciation of Asian currencies, particularly the Japanese yen and South Korean won, against the backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and increasing market volatility, raising concerns about potential interventions by Asian central banks [1][4][6]. Group 1: Currency Depreciation - The Japanese yen has notably weakened, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 157, marking a new high since January [1]. - The euro has also strengthened against the yen, breaking the 180 and reaching 181.44, the highest level since the euro's inception in 1999 [3]. - The nominal effective exchange rate index for the yen shows a 3% decline since the end of September, the largest drop among G10 currencies [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Responses - Japanese Finance Minister has emphasized the need to monitor market trends closely due to the yen's depreciation [3]. - South Korean officials have expressed concerns over the won's decline, which has fallen approximately 3% in the past month, and are considering measures to defend the currency [4][5]. - The Indian rupee and Philippine peso have also faced depreciation pressures, with the rupee falling over 3% this year due to external factors [5]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - Asian economies currently hold substantial foreign exchange reserves, totaling nearly $8 trillion, providing a buffer against currency depreciation [6][7]. - Major central banks in the region have increased reserves by over $400 billion this year, with China and Japan leading in reserve growth [7]. - The import coverage ratio in the region remains robust, indicating a strong capacity to manage currency fluctuations [7].

澳大利亚国民银行经济学家泰勒·纽金特在评论中称，这些官员仍对美联储在12月降息的可能性持怀疑 态度。他指出，达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，除非出现令人信服的证据显示通胀加速下行或劳动力市场降 温幅度超过预期，否则适度的限制性政策是合适的。 纽金特补充称，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德也指出，进一步降息可能更倾向于助推通胀顽固而非支撑劳动 力市场。 LSEG数据显示，美元兑韩元上涨0.6%至1456.60，澳元兑美元下跌0.2%至0.6524。 来源：环球市场播报 亚洲货币周一早盘多数兑美元下跌，上周五美联储官员的鹰派言论持续施压。 ...

对冲基金巨头Point72资产管理公司策略师兼经济学家Sophia Drossos表示，随着美元走弱，与人工智能 (AI)热潮密切相关的亚洲经济体货币，有望在明年成为最大受益者。 Drossos指出，美元贬值趋势将持续至2026年，尽管跌幅将较今年迄今7.1%的回落幅度有所收窄。她认 为此轮美元走弱的最大受益者，可能来自那些货币表现未能跟上AI相关股票大涨势头的亚洲国家。 在经历连续四年下跌后，韩元在2025年迄今仅微升约1%。受中美贸易紧张局势缓和影响，离岸人民币 同期涨幅虽然超过3%，但仅位列今年亚洲货币涨幅第五位。 Drossos表示，随着美国联邦政府结束停摆，新公布的经济数据很可能显示经济增长正在放缓。这将为 美联储12月降息铺平道路，进而导致美元走弱。 受贸易紧张局势和经济前景担忧影响，今年十国集团所有货币兑美元均实现升值。尽管美国股指创下历 史新高，但美元指数正朝着2017年以来最差年度表现迈进。 "尽管美国经济表现不俗，但其他国家的表现更为亮眼，"Drossos表示，"全球投资者已纷纷把握其他经 济体的估值优势。" "随着AI主题在全球范围拓展，我会重点关注中国和韩国，"她在纽约接受采访时表示， ...

随着韩元于本周一度跌至十六年低点附近水平，韩国当局承诺将与国有的国民年金基金(NPS)协同采取行动稳定韩元汇率。韩国财政部在周五表示，政府将 与包括国民年金基金和出口商在内的主要市场参与者进行密切讨论，以准备相关措施。此前，韩国财政部长Koo Yun-cheol会见了韩国央行行长Rhee Chang Yong和其他金融监管机构。 韩国政府官员们对外汇市场的日益增加的不确定性表示担忧，并称居民海外投资的持续失衡可能强化对韩元走弱的预期。他们一致认为有必要积极运用所有 可用工具来应对。 作为韩国最大的机构投资者，国民年金基金经常通过对冲和外汇操作帮助缓解韩元压力，例如今年1至5月期间曾抛售美元买入韩元。纽约梅隆投资管理高级 市场策略师Wee Khoon Chong表示："国民年金基金的回归将支撑韩元，并帮助修正其当前相对于其他亚洲货币的错位走势。" 数据显示，全球基金已抛售约46亿美元韩国股票。随着股市资金外流和居民海外投资增加，本季度韩元暴跌近4%，成为仅次于日元的亚洲表现最差货币， 这使韩国政府干预压力持续加剧。财政部周五的声明推动韩元走高，使其成为当日亚洲涨幅最大的货币。此外，韩国基准股指周五开盘下跌2.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won has been depreciating against the US dollar, nearing its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, following the announcement of 24-hour trading for the won starting next year, increasing pressure on the Bank of Korea to intervene in the foreign exchange market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The won has declined by 6% over the past three months, the largest drop among major currencies in the Asia-Pacific region, influenced by ongoing capital outflows from the stock market and increased overseas investments by residents [2]. - The won's exchange rate against the dollar recently approached 1487.45, just 1% shy of its historical high, marking the lowest level since March 2009 [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the 24-hour trading initiative, the Korean stock index fell by 2.3%, and the won also depreciated, reaching its lowest level since mid-May [3]. - Despite the potential for increased global liquidity for the won with the upcoming market liberalization, immediate foreign capital inflows are not expected [3]. Group 3: Central Bank's Position - The Bank of Korea is under scrutiny regarding potential foreign exchange interventions, with the governor indicating a willingness to act if excessive volatility is observed, while downplaying the current depreciation trend [4]. - The economic environment is complex for the Bank of Korea, as the IMF forecasts a mere 0.9% growth for the South Korean economy this year, the lowest among major Asian economies, complicating the decision to lower interest rates to support economic recovery [4]. Group 4: Bond Market Pressure - South Korean bonds are also facing pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to a 16-month high, as the market increasingly bets that the current monetary easing cycle is coming to an end [5]. - There are expectations that the Bank of Korea may require national pension institutions to sell dollars as a strategy to support the won, a tactic previously employed in late 2022 and early 2023 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, raising concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Korea [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The South Korean won has fallen 6% over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. - The USD/KRW exchange rate is nearing the historical high of 1487.45, with the won recently trading at 1468.77 [1][3]. - The recent announcement of 24-hour trading for the won starting next year has added pressure to its value [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors have sold a net $5.2 billion worth of South Korean stocks this month, despite the KOSPI index reaching historical highs [3]. - The announcement of the 24-hour trading policy did not generate positive market sentiment, as the KOSPI index fell by 2.3% on the day of the announcement [3]. Group 3: Central Bank's Position - The Bank of Korea is under pressure to intervene in the foreign exchange market, with its governor indicating a willingness to act if excessive volatility is observed [4]. - The central bank's cautious stance contrasts with other Asian economies that have recently cut interest rates to support their currencies [5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected South Korea's economic growth at only 0.9% this year, the lowest among major Asian economies [5]. - The yield on 10-year South Korean government bonds has risen to a 16-month high, indicating market expectations of an end to the current monetary easing cycle [5]. Group 5: Potential Strategies - Market participants speculate that one feasible strategy for the Bank of Korea to support the won could involve the national pension fund selling US dollars, a tactic previously employed [6]. - The National Pension Service of Korea has engaged in significant transactions to rebalance its portfolio, including selling dollars to purchase domestic stocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won is approaching its lowest point since 2009, creating pressure on the Bank of Korea to protect the currency as it nears a critical exchange rate level against the US dollar [1][3] Group 1: Currency Performance - The won is approximately 1% away from breaking the level of 1487.45 per US dollar, which would mark the lowest point since March 2009 [1] - The won has depreciated by 6% over the past three months, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia [3] Group 2: Central Bank Response - Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong indicated a willingness to intervene if excessive volatility occurs, but downplayed the current weakness, suggesting that the market is overly sensitive to global uncertainties [1] - Unlike Japan's authorities, who have only issued verbal warnings regarding yen depreciation, the Bank of Korea has taken a more cautious and traditional approach [3] Group 3: Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects South Korea's economic growth rate at 0.9% for this year, the slowest among Asian countries [3] - The Bank of Korea has maintained interest rates since a cut in May, contrasting with other regional countries [3] Group 4: Capital Flows - One potential strategy for supporting the won is for national pension institutions to sell US dollars, a tactic previously employed by the South Korean government [3] - Foreign investors have net sold $5.2 billion in local stocks this month, contributing to capital outflows and increased overseas investments by residents [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Bank of Korea have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion RMB / 70 trillion KRW, effective for five years, which can be extended by mutual consent [1] - The renewal of the agreement aims to deepen monetary and financial cooperation between the two countries, facilitate bilateral trade, and maintain financial market stability [1] Bilateral Currency Cooperation - As of June 30, 2025, the PBOC has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 43 countries and regions, with 32 effective agreements totaling over 4.5 trillion RMB [2] - The actual utilization of RMB by foreign central banks reached 80.67 billion RMB, while the PBOC's utilization of foreign currency swap funds was approximately 3.8 billion RMB [2] - The internationalization of the RMB has accelerated, showing progress in cross-border trade settlement, financial market opening, and reserve currency status [2] Offshore RMB Market Development - The offshore RMB market is steadily developing, with the PBOC collaborating with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to facilitate RMB transactions and support a new 100 billion RMB trade financing arrangement [3] - As of the first quarter of 2025, offshore RMB deposits reached approximately 1.6 trillion RMB, a historical high, and offshore RMB bond issuance amounted to 1.2 trillion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 27% year-on-year increase [3] Policy and Framework Enhancements - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes advancing RMB internationalization and enhancing capital account openness, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous plans [4] - The PBOC aims to eliminate policy bottlenecks and integrate cross-border and offshore RMB financial services, promoting RMB settlement for overseas project loans and encouraging more entities to issue RMB-denominated securities [4] Financial Market Opening - The report outlines a gradual opening of the financial services sector, allowing qualified foreign institutions to participate in financial business trials and optimizing channels for domestic institutions to invest abroad [5] - It also proposes the development of RMB foreign exchange derivatives and the promotion of RMB trading with neighboring countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [5] Cross-Border Payment System - The report highlights the construction of a self-controlled cross-border payment system for RMB, expanding the coverage of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and enhancing cross-border RMB clearing services [6] - It emphasizes the need for a robust regulatory framework for cross-border RMB business to ensure risk prevention while promoting internationalization [6]