Group 1 - The US dollar index has declined by 9.4% this year, with a 5.54% drop in the last two months, raising concerns about the US government's policy confidence and the dollar's status as a global safe-haven currency [2] - In contrast, the offshore RMB has appreciated by 1.63% against the US dollar this year, with a 0.57% increase in the last two months, demonstrating stability compared to other currencies [2] - The South Korean won has also shown strength, rising 7.85% against the US dollar this year, with a 7.13% increase in the last two months, indicating a similar trend to the RMB [2] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea has reported a strong correlation between the won and the RMB, with an average correlation coefficient of approximately 0.6 since 2018, suggesting that the won's value may be influenced by RMB fluctuations [3] - The correlation between the two currencies is asymmetric; it strengthens when the won depreciates and weakens during periods of won appreciation [3][4] - The deep trade relationship between South Korea and China, along with shared exposure to the US dollar, is identified as a core reason for the increased linkage between the two currencies [4] Group 3 - South Korea has become China's second-largest trading partner after the US, with trade volume projected to reach 2.33 trillion yuan in 2024, significantly impacting currency values [5] - China has consistently been South Korea's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 21% of South Korea's total trade in 2023 [5] - A currency swap agreement worth 400 billion yuan between South Korea and China has been established, enhancing the stability of the RMB and won exchange rate [5][6] Group 4 - The direct trading of the won against the RMB will reduce reliance on third-party currencies like the US dollar, lowering transaction costs and exchange rate risks for South Korean companies [6] - The trend towards currency integration among Asian countries is expected to deepen, facilitated by the internationalization of the RMB and evolving international monetary systems [6]

Core Insights - The linkage between the Korean won and the Chinese yuan is becoming increasingly tight, with fluctuations in the yuan likely to impact the won, especially during periods of global uncertainty caused by trade wars [1][2] - Since 2018, the correlation between the won and yuan has averaged around 0.6, with notable periods of increased correlation during the U.S.-China trade tensions and the aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [1] - The sensitivity of the won to the yuan may increase if former President Trump implements stricter trade protection policies during a potential second term, complicating Korea's monetary policy and foreign exchange risk management [1] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The research indicates an asymmetric relationship in the exchange rate linkage, where the correlation strengthens during periods of won depreciation and weakens during won appreciation [2] - Factors contributing to this imbalance include joint depreciation against the U.S. dollar and competition in export markets between China and South Korea [2] - On the day of the report, the won appreciated over 1% against the U.S. dollar, while the offshore yuan saw a slight increase of 0.15% [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent appreciation of Asian currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, and New Taiwan dollar, amid a currency war initiated by the U.S. [1][5] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, who has a history of currency speculation, is seen as a key player in this currency conflict, having previously targeted the British pound and Japanese yen [5][9] - The offshore yuan appreciated significantly, rising over 900 points in two days, while the New Taiwan dollar saw an unprecedented increase of over 9% [5][15] Group 2 - The article contrasts the strategies of hedge funds, which aim to devalue currencies for profit, with national strategies that typically seek to maintain or devalue their own currencies to support export-driven economies [6][7] - For export-oriented economies like Taiwan, a weaker currency is beneficial as it increases the profitability of exports, while a strong currency can harm competitiveness [8][14] - The article highlights the risks faced by Taiwanese financial institutions due to their heavy reliance on U.S. dollar assets and the lack of hedging against currency fluctuations, leading to significant losses amid the recent appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar [17][19] Group 3 - The Hong Kong dollar's situation is unique, as it is pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the recent appreciation has led to concerns about maintaining this peg [20][21] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened by selling over 100 billion Hong Kong dollars to stabilize the currency, resulting in increased U.S. dollar reserves [21][22] - The article warns of potential asset bubbles in Hong Kong due to the influx of capital, which could pose risks if the market experiences a sudden withdrawal of funds [23] Group 4 - The Chinese yuan's stability is emphasized, with the article noting that it has only appreciated by less than 2% despite a 9% depreciation of the U.S. dollar since January [23][24] - Regulatory interventions are expected if the yuan's exchange rate fluctuates significantly, with historical patterns indicating intervention at certain thresholds [25][26] - The article concludes that while a stronger yuan could attract capital inflows, it is also a bargaining chip for the U.S. in trade negotiations, suggesting that the yuan's appreciation is not straightforward [27][28]