投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 今日国债期货均震荡下跌。由于短期内政策利率下降的可能性不高，降 息预期消退，支撑国债期货向上的动能较为疲弱。不过中长期来看，目前国 内内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，海外美联储启动降息令人民币汇率端压 力大大减小，未来货币政策偏宽松的可能性较高。总的来说，预计短期内国 债期货以低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 国债期货低位震荡 核心观点 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 国债期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed weakness on July 11, with government bond futures mostly declining, while liquidity remained balanced but slightly contracted, indicating a mixed outlook for the market [1][4]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.05% at 120.610, while the 10-year main contract fell 0.02% to 108.830 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.1 basis points to 1.975%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.665% [2]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average bidding yields for 2-year and 3-year government bonds at 1.3582% and 1.3735%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.6 and 3.12 [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 847 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 507 billion yuan for the day [4]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 1.7 basis points to 1.333% [4]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the convertible bond market is experiencing high valuations, leading investors to prefer reducing positions in convertible bonds while increasing exposure to equity indices [5]. - Guosheng Fixed Income highlighted the continued growth of bond ETFs, with expectations for further expansion in the sci-tech bond ETF market due to policy support [5].