股市赚钱效应较好 对于此轮上涨行情，方正富邦基金首席投资官汤戈认为，低利率环境下流动性充裕，长期资金稳步入 市，投资者风险偏好回升，市场上涨赚钱效应进一步提升风险偏好，带动增量资金入场，形成正反馈。 近期科技主线行情持续活跃，光模块、AI算力、半导体等科技板块在一系列政策与市场需求提振下表 现较好。 展望后市，汤戈认为，即便指数创了阶段新高，但大多数行业拥挤度仍在中等区间，市场没有整体性过 热，最多只是局部过热，并且仍有一些板块处在拥挤度较低的位置。这些低位板块可在局部过热的板块 冷却时承接起市场的资金与热度。 □本报记者 王宇露 上周市场大幅上涨，中证新华社民族品牌工程指数上涨4.81%，报1865.89点。中兴通讯、兆易创新、上 海家化等成分股上周表现强势；下半年以来，中际旭创、科沃斯、达仁堂等成分股涨幅居前。展望后 市，机构认为，当前投资者情绪和流动性因素对股市的驱动仍处于偏强水平，短期市场强势表现有望持 续。从中期角度看，基本面因素有望逐渐接替流动性因素，进一步推动行情表现。 多只成分股表现强势 上周市场大幅上涨，上证指数上涨3.49%，深证成指上涨4.57%，创业板指上涨5.85%，沪深300指数上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to align with economic growth and price level expectations, while maintaining ample liquidity in the financial system [2][3]. Economic Outlook - Domestic economic conditions are improving, while uncertainties remain regarding overseas economic recovery. The growth in the second half of the year is expected to be supported by the acceleration of new growth drivers, continuous expansion of total demand, and more proactive macro policies [2][3]. Inflation Trends - The report indicates a moderate recovery in price levels, with positive factors increasing. It highlights the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy [3][6]. Monetary Policy Framework - The monetary policy remains focused on balancing multiple objectives, including short-term and long-term goals, growth stability and risk prevention, and internal and external equilibrium [3][4]. Credit Policy - The report calls for flexible measures to optimize the structure of credit, with a focus on maintaining ample liquidity and adjusting the pace of policy implementation based on economic conditions [4][5]. Liquidity Management - The report maintains the stance of ensuring ample liquidity but does not specify the use of certain monetary policy tools, indicating a potential shift towards a neutral loose policy orientation [5][6]. Structural Support - The report emphasizes the use of structural monetary policy tools to support technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade, with a particular focus on the housing market through guaranteed housing refinancing [6].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant increase on August 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 2024 high, reaching its highest point in over three years [1] - The market saw a total trading volume exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan, marking the highest level in over five months [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also reached new highs for 2024 [1] Sector Performance - Technology sectors, including optical chips, cultivated diamonds, and liquid-cooled servers, showed strong performance, with the telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics industries leading the gains [2] - The telecommunications sector rose by 4.91%, non-ferrous metals by 2.37%, and electronics by 2.01%, while banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors experienced declines [2] Capital Inflow - There was a notable influx of funds from margin trading, with the A-share margin trading balance reaching 20,261.98 billion yuan, the highest since July 2, 2015 [2] - Since May, the financing balance in A-shares has increased by 2,446.73 billion yuan, indicating a strong capital inflow into the market [2] Market Drivers - The rise in the Shanghai Composite Index is attributed to three main factors: ample liquidity driving market growth, effective policy implementation boosting investor confidence, and reduced external disturbances [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The upward trend of stock index futures is clear, and long positions should be held; commodity futures such as Shanghai Aluminum and polysilicon continue to show a strong trend [1] - The bond market may continue to operate at a high level, and the prices of precious metals are running strongly; the copper market has short - term upward pressure, and the aluminum market has a clear medium - term long position pattern; the nickel market has limited upward space [1][4] - The supply - demand structure of lithium carbonate shows signs of improvement; the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are supported; the prices of steel products are strongly supported; the prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile state [5][6][7] - The fundamentals of soda ash and float glass are bearish in the short term, and the glass price may turn around in the long term; crude oil is weakly operating in the short term; methanol and polyolefin are in a volatile pattern [7][8][9] - Cotton is weakly operating, and rubber is expected to rebound in the short term [9] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - The stock index continued to rise steadily on Wednesday, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The long - making sentiment in the market was strengthened, and the leverage funds accelerated to enter the market. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and the long positions of IF2509 in the CSI 300 Index should be held [1] Bond Futures - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the inflation pressure still exists, and the central bank's open - market operations have a net withdrawal, but the capital is still loose. The bond market is difficult to turn around, and there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to operate at a high level [1] Precious Metals - After Trump announced a series of important news, the short - term upward momentum of gold prices has increased. The gold - silver ratio still has room for repair, and the long - position pattern of silver is clear. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract of gold and silver, and patiently hold long positions in silver [4] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price continued to fluctuate within the range. The macro - situation has uncertainties, the supply side is tense due to the Chilean copper mine incident, and the demand side is cautious. The mine - end disturbances and the weakening of the US dollar index support the copper price, but the demand concerns still drag it down, and there is short - term upward pressure [4] Aluminum - The alumina price is slightly higher, and the market has an expectation of medium - term surplus, but the low warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price. The demand for Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be cautious in the off - season, but the supply constraint limits the inventory accumulation pressure. The long - position pattern of Shanghai Aluminum in the medium term remains unchanged, and the long positions of AL2510 should be held [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel is loose, the demand has no significant improvement, and the high inventory pressure of refined nickel remains unchanged. Although the nickel price has rebounded at a low level under the influence of the macro - situation, the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold short - position call options [4] Chemical Products Lithium Carbonate - Due to the influence of policies on the lithium resource end, the weekly output of lithium carbonate has decreased, the inventory accumulation pressure has been relieved, and the demand expectation has turned positive. The supply - demand structure shows signs of improvement, and the renewal result of the mining license of Jiuxiwo Mine needs to be closely watched this week [6] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, the supply is in a passive contraction state, and the fundamentals are supported. The spot price of polysilicon has risen significantly, with strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs to be concerned [6] Steel and Iron Ore Rebar - The spot price of rebar continued to rise, the trading volume decreased slightly, the supply - demand contradiction accumulated slowly, and the inventory was at a low level. The supply is restricted by environmental protection and anti - involution policies, and the cost is supported by the rise in coking coal and coke prices. It is recommended to hold short - position out - of - the - money put options on RB2510P3000 [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to rise, and the fundamentals are tough. The supply is restricted, the cost is supported, and the market sentiment is optimistic. It is recommended to lay out long positions on the 1 - contract on dips [6] Iron Ore - The iron ore shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection restrictions and weak basis, while the 1 - contract is supported by positive expectations. However, the upward space of the iron ore price is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection restriction expectations are fulfilled [6] Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The market has an expectation of supply tightening, but the full implementation probability of reducing coal mine production hours is low, and the influence of expected sentiment on coal prices is greater than the fundamentals. Be wary of the risk of over - rising prices [7] Coke - Five rounds of price increases for coke have been implemented, the coking profit has been repaired, the supply and demand are expected to increase, the spot market trading is active, and the futures price is stable and fluctuating strongly [7] Soda Ash and Float Glass Soda Ash - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish. The daily production is stable, the supply constraint is insufficient, the demand has no improvement, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 09 - contract [7] Float Glass - The downstream orders of glass deep - processing enterprises have not improved significantly, the replenishment willingness is limited, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The 9 - contract is approaching delivery, and the delivery game may be intense. In the long term, if the supply contraction expectation is fulfilled, the glass price may turn around. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions on the 9 - contract on dips and lay out long positions on the 01 - contract [7] Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors increase the probability of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the short - term risk premium decreases. Although the inventory data is positive, the market reaction is insufficient, and the crude oil is weakly operating [7] Methanol - The port inventory has increased, and the production enterprise inventory has decreased. The coastal supply is loose, and the inland supply is tight. It is recommended to sell an option straddle combination [9] Polyolefins - The production enterprise inventory and social inventory of polyolefins have increased, indicating a loose supply. The supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn to a volatile and slightly strong state [9] Cotton - The cotton growth in Xinjiang is good, with a high probability of increased production. The overseas cotton production area has good weather, but the Sino - US trade situation restricts cotton exports. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The cotton is weakly operating [9] Rubber - The sales of passenger cars are good, the tire enterprises' inventory is decreasing, and the demand expectation is turning warm. The raw material price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the rubber price is expected to stop falling and rebound in stages [9]

北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）据人民银行官网，8月1日，中国人民银行召开2025年下半年工作会议暨常 态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会。总结2025年以来工作，分析当前金融形势，部署下一阶段工作。 中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜出席会议并讲话，朱鹤新、曲吉山、宣昌能、陆磊、陶玲、邹澜出 席会议。 会议认为，2025年以来，中国人民银行认真落实中央经济工作会议、中央政治局会议和政府工作报告部 署，加强形势研判，做好政策储备，集中推出一揽子货币政策措施，稳妥处置重点领域风险，持续深化 金融改革开放，切实维护国家金融安全，纵深推进全面从严治党，各项工作有力有效推进。 会议要求，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，引导金融 机构保持信贷合理增长，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 抓好各项货币政策措施的执行，畅通货币政策传导，提升货币政策实施效果。盘活存量，用好增量，提 高资金使用效率。强化利率政策执行和监督。保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed weakness on July 11, with government bond futures mostly declining, while liquidity remained balanced but slightly contracted, indicating a mixed outlook for the market [1][4]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.05% at 120.610, while the 10-year main contract fell 0.02% to 108.830 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.1 basis points to 1.975%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.665% [2]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average bidding yields for 2-year and 3-year government bonds at 1.3582% and 1.3735%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.6 and 3.12 [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 847 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 507 billion yuan for the day [4]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 1.7 basis points to 1.333% [4]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the convertible bond market is experiencing high valuations, leading investors to prefer reducing positions in convertible bonds while increasing exposure to equity indices [5]. - Guosheng Fixed Income highlighted the continued growth of bond ETFs, with expectations for further expansion in the sci-tech bond ETF market due to policy support [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in May, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with new RMB loans nearing 620 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Data - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The nominal economic growth rate in recent years has entered a medium-to-high growth phase, with financial total indicators maintaining an increase of over 8%, exceeding the nominal economic growth rate by approximately 4 percentage points, which is at a historically high level and has persisted for a long time [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Measures - On May 7, the central bank announced a series of financial support measures, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and the optimization and creation of structural monetary policy tools [1] - Experts indicated that the measures taken are substantial, and the effects of monetary policy will take time to manifest, with policies gradually being implemented effectively [1] - The central bank will continue to utilize various monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable liquidity [1]

2025 年 06 月 09 日 | | 主力合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 振幅(%) | 成 交 | 持 仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2年期 | TS2509 | 102.470 | 102.508 | 102.442 | 102.452 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 34876 | 117087 | | 5年期 | TF2509 | 106.140 | 106.195 | 106.110 | 106.140 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 49178 | 145436 | | 10年期 | T2509 | 108.820 | 108.930 | 108.810 | 108.925 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 54263 | 177112 | | 30年期 | TL2509 | 119.500 | 119.820 | 119.500 | 119.780 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 70269 | 96837 | 资料来源：iFind，国泰君安期货研 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with government bond futures showing slight gains while interbank bond yields are mostly rising, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.04% to 119.600, the 10-year main contract up 0.04% to 108.850, the 5-year main contract up 0.07% to 106.050, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% to 102.408 [2]. - Interbank major bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.75 basis points to 1.6925%, and the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 1 basis point to 1.927% [2]. Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 360 billion yuan in the open market, with short-term funding rates turning upward [1][6]. - The PBOC is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy, with a net MLF injection of 3.75 trillion yuan anticipated for May, following a recent reserve requirement ratio cut [8] [6]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the MLF operations are expected to continue providing substantial liquidity, with the potential for MLF net injections to become a regular practice [8]. - Dongfang Jincheng highlighted that the ongoing unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments are aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system and enhancing credit availability for enterprises and residents [8]. - Huatai Securities pointed out that the significant rise in long-term bond yields in the US and Japan is primarily due to concerns over government bond auctions and sovereign rating downgrades, exacerbated by high debt levels in both countries [8].

微盘股能在今年再创新高，恐怕在很多人的意料之外。 参考中邮证券金工团队的统计，近一季万得微盘股指数上涨17.15%，在38个宽基指数当中排名第1；近一年万得微盘股指数上涨64.6%，在38个宽基 指数当中排名第2。不仅如此，万得微盘股指数还连续5个月出现月度级别的K线上涨。 那么，该如何理解当下再创新高的微盘股呢？ 有人觉得微盘股再创新高的背后，是 流动性充裕 的结构性行情。华创证券的报告中提到，小盘成长风格（科创50、北证50、国证2000、微盘股）有 望受益于更快落地的货币宽松。4月剩余流动性【M2同比-社融存量（剔除股权融资和政府债券）同比】从0.98%升至1.86%。叠加央行优化两项支持 资本市场的货币政策工具、支持中央汇金公司发挥好类"平准基金"两项政策支持股市流动性，当下的小盘成长行情得到进一步加强。 参与人多的地方，关注点就得聚焦到资金面上。事实上，这不是小编第一次涉足微盘股话题，在过去的内容中，我们曾和大家探讨过 （请戳这里） ，微盘股策略赚的不是基本面的钱，而是估值的提升。此前国海证券的报告中通过分解股票收益为PE（市盈率）乘以EPS（每股收益），发现小微 也有人将此归因为 资金属性 所致。 ...