投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 能源化工多数下跌，股指延续升势 ——中信期货晨报20251010 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 理价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | | 沪深300期货 | 4689.2 | 1.54% | 1.54% | 1.54% | 1.54% | 19.59% | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 3026 | 1.24% | 1.24% | 1.24% | 1.24% | 12.99% | | | 中证500期货 | 7415.8 | 1.72% | 1.72% | 1.72% | 1.72% | 30.26% | | | 中证1000期货 | 7449 6 | 0 59% | 0 59% | 0 ...

来源中国人民银行网站 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，10月9日，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月(91天)。 ...

9月29日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2886亿元7天期逆回购操作。因当日有2405亿 元7天期逆回购到期，实现净投放481亿元。 专家表示，面对国庆假期、跨季等因素扰动，近期央行综合运用多种货币政策工具，呵护流动性态度明 显。后续央行将继续把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，灵活运用货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。 对于14天期逆回购操作，华西证券（002926）宏观首席分析师肖金川表示，央行通常在春节和国庆前一 周左右开启类似操作。提前操作的优势在于能帮助央行更合理地安排节后投放到期规模，避免大额资金 集中到期引发市场资金面超预期波动，为假期前后流动性平稳过渡筑牢防线。 专家表示，央行在一周内两度开展14天期逆回购操作，体现了其呵护流动性平稳跨季的意图。"14天期 逆回购操作是季末流动性的重要补充，有利于跨季资金价格回落。"信达证券（601059）首席固收分析 师李一爽说。 资金利率中枢料下移 专家认为，为持续保持流动性处于充裕状态，后续央行或将灵活运用多种货币政策工具。 "展望10月，流动性缺口或和9月不相上下，但考虑到10月央行或重启国债买卖，以及四季度多数情况下 资金利率中枢低于三季度，因此， ...

Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses the ongoing trend of household deposits migrating to the equity market, highlighting the gradual process and current status of this migration [2][33]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Progress - The trend of deposit migration continues, with a notable increase in the M1 growth rate to 6.0% in August, up by 0.4 percentage points from July, while M2 growth remains stable at 8.8% [3][5]. - The decrease in growth rates for both household and corporate time deposits indicates a shift towards more liquid forms of deposits, driven by lower interest rates on maturing deposits and active capital market performance [3][12]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 550 billion yuan year-on-year in August, although this growth rate has slowed compared to July's 1.39 trillion yuan increase, suggesting that the migration to equity markets is a significant factor [12][19]. Group 2: Capital Market Activity - The capital market showed increased activity in August, with the average daily trading volume in A-shares reaching 2.3 trillion yuan, a 29% increase from July [19]. - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 35% to 2.65 million in August, indicating heightened investor interest and participation [19][24]. - The ratio of household deposits to total A-share market capitalization remains at a historically moderate level of around 157%, down from a high of approximately 210% earlier this year, reflecting the impact of the recent stock market rally [19][24]. Group 3: Liquidity and Economic Factors - The liquidity environment remains ample, with the central bank's liquidity injection in August increasing by 400 billion yuan year-on-year, keeping interbank market rates low at around 1.5% [24][28]. - However, the growth of real deposits in August was 1.7 trillion yuan, which is 600 billion yuan less than the previous year, primarily due to weakened credit demand and reduced government bond issuance [24][31]. - The pace of cross-border capital inflow has slowed, with the cumulative foreign exchange settlement surplus indicating a shift in capital flow dynamics, although the year-on-year increase in August was still significant at 14.5 billion USD [30][31]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that while the trend of deposit migration continues, the pace may slow due to several factors, including reduced deposit creation capacity from fiscal and credit measures, increased investor divergence post-stock market rally, and a slowdown in export growth affecting capital inflows [33]. - The estimated potential for deposit migration remains between 5 to 7 trillion yuan, indicating that this trend may continue to evolve in the medium term [33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and liquidity of the credit bond ETF fund (511200), which has seen a slight increase of 0.03% with a latest price of 100.798 yuan [1] - The trading volume of the credit bond ETF fund reached 8.071 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 39.35% during the session [1] - Tianfeng Securities' chief fixed income analyst indicates that while there are disturbances expected in late September, overall support for easing remains, with liquidity expected to stay ample due to increased fiscal spending and strong central bank support [1] Group 2 - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) consists of AAA-rated credit bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, primarily issued by high-quality central state-owned enterprises, with a total of 303 underlying bonds [1] - The remaining maturity of the component bonds ranges from 0 to 30 years, covering various durations including ultra-short, short, medium, long, and ultra-long, effectively achieving full coverage of the yield curve [1] - The overall characteristics of the fund lean towards medium to short duration credit bonds [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a V-shaped rebound in the afternoon, with the Sci-Tech 50 index surging by 7.23% [1][3] - Major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.14%, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index leading with a 3.82% increase [1][3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (up 7.14%), Electronics (up 5.53%), and Defense & Military (up 2.29%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Coal (-0.81%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (-0.73%), and Textiles and Apparel (-0.47%) lagged behind [2] Conceptual Indices - Conceptual indices that performed well included Copper Cable High-Speed Connection (up 5.61%), Co-packaged Optics (CPO) (up 5.13%), and F5G Concept (up 5.12%) [2] - Underperforming conceptual indices included Genetically Modified Organisms (-1.81%) and Alzheimer’s Concept (-1.07%) [2] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market's upward momentum is driven by industrial policy support and ample liquidity, with expectations of a fiscal stimulus window in the 3rd to 4th quarter [5] - It is suggested to focus on technology growth and financial sectors for investment opportunities, while cyclical industries and new energy may see performance improvements in the latter half of the year [5]

Market Overview - The Chinese stock market has recently shown exceptional performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high since 2015, and the CSI 300 Index surpassing a four-year peak [3] - The surge in the market reflects multiple macroeconomic factors, primarily driven by extremely ample domestic liquidity [3] Liquidity and Investment Trends - A significant influx of household savings into the stock market is observed as bank deposit rates and bond yields continue to decline, leading to daily trading volumes on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges exceeding 2 trillion yuan for nine consecutive days, marking a historical record [3] Policy and External Factors - There is an increasing expectation of policy stimulus, coupled with a thaw in China-US trade relations, which has injected optimism into the market [3] - The extension of the tariff truce agreement by Trump has alleviated external uncertainties, further supporting market sentiment [3] - Strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also enhanced the flow of capital from the US to China, creating a favorable external financial environment [3] Stock Flow Insights - On the Hong Kong Stock Connect, there was a net outflow of 1.37 billion HKD on Monday, with Alibaba (09988.HK) recording the highest net inflow of 590 million HKD, followed by Kuaishou (01024.HK) [3] - Conversely, the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) experienced the largest net outflow, amounting to 2.3 billion HKD, followed by Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) [3]

Group 1 - The brokerage sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the A-share leading brokerage ETF (512000) rising over 2% and achieving a transaction volume exceeding 1.9 billion yuan within half a day [1] - Major brokerage stocks are showing strong performance, with Xiangcai Securities hitting the daily limit, Changjiang Securities up over 7%, and Guosen Securities rising more than 5% [5] - The market is supported by ample liquidity, and historical factors such as domestic fundamentals and liquidity improvements are driving the market's strength [2][3] Group 2 - The brokerage sector's beta attribute is expected to continue, with the investment value of brokerage stocks being gradually confirmed as market sentiment improves [3] - The brokerage ETF (512000) tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages [3] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for several stocks in the sector [6]

Market Performance - The market experienced a significant increase last week, with the China Securities Index rising by 4.81% to 1865.89 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.57%, the ChiNext Index by 5.85%, and the CSI 300 Index by 4.18% [1] Strong Stock Performances - Notable strong performers included ZTE Corporation, which increased by 32.21%, and Zhaoyi Innovation, which rose by 22.77% [1] - Other significant gainers included Shanghai Jahwa, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Stone Technology, with increases of 18.13%, 17.16%, and 16.09% respectively [1] Mid-Year Performance Highlights - Since the beginning of the second half of the year, Zhongji Xuchuang has surged by 91.21%, leading the gains, followed by Ecovacs with a 56.26% increase [2] - Other stocks that have risen over 40% include Daren Tang, Sunshine Power, and ZTE Corporation [2] Market Sentiment and Liquidity - The current market sentiment and liquidity factors are driving the stock market, with a strong likelihood of continued short-term performance [3] - The low interest rate environment and ample liquidity have led to increased risk appetite among investors, enhancing the market's upward momentum [2] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain its strong performance in the short term, with basic factors likely to gradually replace liquidity factors in driving market performance [3] - There are still opportunities in lower congestion sectors, which may attract funds as overheated sectors cool down [2]