Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has shifted from a period of rapid price increases to a decline, with national housing prices experiencing a downward trend, marking the end of the era where buying property was seen as a guaranteed profit opportunity [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 2025, only 5 out of 70 major cities in China saw an increase in new home prices, while the second-hand housing market experienced a complete decline, indicating a nationwide drop in housing prices [1]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen second-hand home prices decrease by over 0.8%, with Shanghai leading at a 1.0% decline [1]. Group 2: Underlying Causes - The demand for housing has changed significantly due to urbanization reaching over 65%, limited future growth, and a declining population, leading to fewer potential homebuyers [3]. - Household debt levels have reached historical highs, limiting the purchasing power of families who are already heavily burdened by mortgage repayments, causing many to adopt a wait-and-see approach [3]. - Consumer confidence has been shaken by reports of real estate companies facing financial difficulties and declining property values, leading to a shift in perception regarding the profitability of real estate investments [3]. Group 3: Societal Changes - The younger generation is increasingly viewing homeownership as a non-essential goal, prioritizing quality of life and experiences over long-term financial commitments associated with mortgages [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to enter a new phase characterized by stability in total volume but differentiation in structure, with no return to widespread price increases [6]. - Core areas in first-tier and strong second-tier cities may see price stabilization or slow recovery due to ongoing population influx, while third and fourth-tier cities may face prolonged downward pressure on prices [6]. - The quality of housing will become a critical factor, with low-density, well-designed properties likely to be more desirable, while high-density developments may struggle with resale and value retention [6]. Group 5: Investment Perspective - The narrative around real estate has shifted from wealth creation to a focus on living quality, necessitating more rational and cautious decision-making regarding home purchases [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant shift in housing attitudes, with many individuals opting to rent rather than buy homes, reflecting a broader change in societal values and economic conditions [1][3][10] Group 1: Key Reasons for the Shift - **Housing Price to Income Ratio**: The disparity between housing prices and income has created excessive pressure on potential buyers, with first-tier cities showing a price-to-income ratio of 20:1, making homeownership increasingly unattainable [4][6] - **Market Adjustment**: The real estate market is undergoing a correction, with a decline in property values across many cities, leading to diminished expectations for asset appreciation [6][7] - **Mature Rental Market**: The rental market has become more sophisticated, offering better services and stability, which has made renting a more attractive option for many [8][10] Group 2: Changing Values and Lifestyle Choices - **Shift in Young People's Values**: Younger generations prioritize quality of life over property ownership, with a significant percentage preferring to invest in experiences rather than real estate [10][11] - **Increased Job Mobility**: Enhanced job mobility and the need for flexibility in living arrangements have made homeownership less appealing, as individuals seek opportunities that require relocation [11][12] - **Rethinking Housing Decisions**: The decision to buy or rent is becoming more complex, with individuals considering personal financial situations, career plans, and family needs rather than adhering to traditional norms [12]

Core Insights - Li Ka-shing's predictions about the real estate market have proven accurate, as he sold properties in 2018 anticipating a market downturn, which has since occurred with significant price declines in various regions [1][3][4] Market Trends - The real estate market has shifted dramatically, with prices in some areas dropping by over 40% from their peaks, leading to a stagnant secondary market where properties take longer to sell [3][6] - The previous "one house is hard to find" situation has changed to an oversupply of properties, altering consumer purchasing behavior towards a focus on cost-effectiveness and living conditions [3][6] Challenges for Homeowners - Families owning two properties face unprecedented challenges, including high inventory levels of 7.5 billion square meters of new homes and a surge in listings for second-hand homes, yet few buyers are interested [6][8] - Homeowners are burdened with high mortgage payments and ongoing property maintenance costs, leading to significant financial pressure, especially in a declining economic environment [8][9] - Rental income is no longer sufficient to cover expenses, as the rental market has also shifted, with many landlords struggling to find tenants and rental prices decreasing [11][9] Underlying Factors - Li Ka-shing's market foresight stems from his deep understanding of the real estate sector, allowing him to anticipate market changes effectively [13] - Demographic shifts, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, indicate a shrinking primary home-buying demographic, which will impact future demand [14] - Changing attitudes among younger generations towards homeownership, with a preference for quality of life and flexibility over buying property, are influencing market dynamics [15] Strategies for Homeowners - Homeowners should clarify the purpose of their properties, focusing on location and amenities if for personal use, or rationally analyzing investment properties to make informed decisions [17] - Diversifying investments beyond real estate, such as into gold or other financial instruments, can mitigate risks associated with the property market [18] - Staying informed about policy changes is crucial for homeowners to adapt their investment strategies proactively [19] Conclusion - The era of guaranteed profits from real estate investments has ended, but opportunities still exist for properties in prime locations with good amenities and management, which are likely to retain value [22]