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行业透视 | 京沪杭房价二次下行后对哪些需求影响更明显
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-17 01:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuous decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, highlighting the changing dynamics in the real estate market and the impact on both second-hand and new housing sales [2][3][4]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Market Trends - In July, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 key cities has declined for four consecutive months, with first-tier cities and certain second-tier cities experiencing the most significant drops [2]. - The average listing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou have decreased by approximately 17.6%, 17.1%, and 15% from their peak values, indicating a shift in seller mentality towards quicker sales [3]. - The transaction price stability contrasts with the declining listing prices, suggesting a widening gap between transaction prices and listing prices, with the discount rate increasing before a second decline [3]. Group 2: Changes in Transaction Structure - The share of low-priced, essential housing transactions has increased, while the demand for mid-to-high-end properties has weakened, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards affordability [4][6]. - In terms of area, small units (below 70 square meters) account for about 40% of transactions in Beijing and Shanghai, while in Hangzhou, this figure is around 21%, showing a concentration in smaller properties [6]. - Over 60% of transactions are now in the low total price segment (below 3 million), with significant increases in market share for this category, reflecting the dominance of first-time buyers in the current market [9]. Group 3: Impact on New Housing Market - The decline in second-hand housing transactions is affecting the "sell old to buy new" dynamic, putting pressure on the new housing market, particularly in mid-to-high-end segments [11]. - The primary price range for new housing transactions is between 1 million to 3 million, which contrasts with the low total price segment dominating second-hand sales, indicating a disconnect in market demand [11].