Core Insights - The article discusses the changing sentiment in the real estate market, particularly in Beijing, where property prices have significantly dropped, leading to a shift in buyer psychology from "prices will always rise" to "prices may continue to fall" [5][7][15]. Group 1: Market Trends - National housing sales area decreased by approximately 30% compared to the peak in 2021, with sales revenue down about 35% [5]. - Property prices in Beijing have dropped from 62,000 to 48,000 per square meter, reflecting a significant decline [1][3]. - The perception of real estate as a guaranteed investment has been disrupted, with many now fearing further price declines [7][15]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment - Many potential buyers are hesitant to purchase due to fears of further price drops, as evidenced by discussions in online groups where members express reluctance despite lower prices [3][10]. - The experience of individuals who bought properties at peak prices and are now facing losses has contributed to a more cautious approach among buyers [9][15]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - Job stability is a significant concern, with rising unemployment rates and layoffs in various sectors, leading to fears about long-term financial commitments like mortgages [9][10]. - The uncertainty in income has made potential buyers wary of taking on long-term debt, especially in a volatile job market [9][10]. Group 4: Investment Alternatives - The current interest rates for mortgages are around 4.5%, while many investment products offer higher returns, making renting and investing seem more attractive than buying property [12][14]. - The potential for significant returns from investing the difference between rent and mortgage payments is being considered by many [14]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The fear of becoming a "last buyer" in a declining market is prevalent, with many individuals recalling past experiences of significant losses after purchasing at high prices [15][18]. - The recent interest rate cuts have sparked discussions about whether it is the right time to buy, but many remain cautious, recognizing that lower rates do not address the fundamental issues of falling prices [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuous decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, highlighting the changing dynamics in the real estate market and the impact on both second-hand and new housing sales [2][3][4]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Market Trends - In July, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 key cities has declined for four consecutive months, with first-tier cities and certain second-tier cities experiencing the most significant drops [2]. - The average listing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou have decreased by approximately 17.6%, 17.1%, and 15% from their peak values, indicating a shift in seller mentality towards quicker sales [3]. - The transaction price stability contrasts with the declining listing prices, suggesting a widening gap between transaction prices and listing prices, with the discount rate increasing before a second decline [3]. Group 2: Changes in Transaction Structure - The share of low-priced, essential housing transactions has increased, while the demand for mid-to-high-end properties has weakened, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards affordability [4][6]. - In terms of area, small units (below 70 square meters) account for about 40% of transactions in Beijing and Shanghai, while in Hangzhou, this figure is around 21%, showing a concentration in smaller properties [6]. - Over 60% of transactions are now in the low total price segment (below 3 million), with significant increases in market share for this category, reflecting the dominance of first-time buyers in the current market [9]. Group 3: Impact on New Housing Market - The decline in second-hand housing transactions is affecting the "sell old to buy new" dynamic, putting pressure on the new housing market, particularly in mid-to-high-end segments [11]. - The primary price range for new housing transactions is between 1 million to 3 million, which contrasts with the low total price segment dominating second-hand sales, indicating a disconnect in market demand [11].