楼市风云突变，曾经被视为"只涨不跌"的金字招牌，如今也显露出疲态。回溯过往，从1998年的平均房价每平方米2000 元，到2021年上半年跃升至1.1万元，全国房价涨幅惊人。尤其是在北上深等一线城市，房价更是从最初的3000元/平方米 飙升至6.5万元/平方米，涨幅超过20倍，造就了一批又一批的炒房神话，其投资回报率远超实业，且看似稳赚不赔。 高层住宅的弊端日益显现，使其未来或将面临出售困境。 公摊面积大：高层住宅的公摊面积通常高达20%至30%，部分甚至达到40%，这意味着购房者不仅要为这部分面积支付购 房款，还要承担高额的物业费用。 出行依赖电梯：高层住户出行严重依赖电梯，高峰时段拥堵不堪，出行效率大打折扣。 然而，自2021年下半年起，楼市的走向悄然生变，房价下行的城市数量日渐增多。截止到今年8月，在全国百座重点城市 中，新建商品房价格仍在上涨的仅剩29城，2城与上月持平，而高达69城的房价已然步入下跌通道。二手房市场的颓势更 为明显，百城之中仅有23城价格尚在攀升，3城与上月持平，而74城则呈现下跌之势。 面对全国房价的整体下行，开发商们纷纷推出降价促销策略，力求尽快将手中的房产变现。与此同时，各地的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future value of real estate, currently worth 2 million, is under debate, with opinions divided between potential recovery and a decline in value due to various trends [1] Group 1: Downward Trend in Housing Prices - The established trend of declining housing prices has been evident since 2022, with an average national price drop exceeding 30%. For instance, in Shanghai, prices have fallen from over 90,000 yuan per square meter in 2021 to around 60,000 yuan now, indicating significant risks for investors who entered at high prices [3] Group 2: Aging Population Impact - China is rapidly aging, with the population aged 60 and above expected to reach 310 million by the end of 2024 and surpass 400 million by 2035. In contrast, the younger population (those born in the 1990s and 2000s) is declining, leading to limited housing demand as most elderly individuals already own homes [4] Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalance - The real estate market is experiencing an oversupply, with 600 million completed housing units capable of accommodating 3 billion people if each unit houses five individuals. Additionally, over 10 million new homes are added to the market annually, while 96% of families already own homes, indicating a saturated demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shifted from a period of guaranteed profits to one where caution is essential, with predictions of a downward trend in housing prices over the next three years [2][4][10] Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices are expected to decline gradually until 2027, with a cumulative drop of around 10% anticipated [4][5] - The saturation of housing demand is evident, as many families have already purchased their first or improved homes, leading to a supply surplus [5][6] - The declining birth rate will further reduce the number of potential homebuyers, weakening the upward pressure on prices [5] Group 2: Second-Hand Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is likely to experience a "deep freeze," with a significant increase in listings and difficulty in finding buyers [6][7] - The core issue in the second-hand market is the oversupply compared to demand, with many sellers unable to find buyers even at reduced prices [6][7] - The aging of properties will further decrease their attractiveness, leading to potential long-term challenges for sellers [6][7] Group 3: Property Value Differentiation - A pronounced differentiation in property values is expected, with high-rise buildings facing significant depreciation risks, particularly those over 25 or 30 stories [7][8] - In contrast, high-quality properties, such as those in desirable school districts or well-equipped communities, are likely to maintain their value due to their inherent demand and scarcity [8][9] - Buyers are advised to prioritize properties with strong value retention, while owners of high-rise buildings should consider selling to avoid future depreciation [8][9] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - It is advised to refrain from purchasing property unless driven by essential needs, given the current market uncertainties [9][10] - Owners of high-rise properties should seek to sell as soon as possible to mitigate potential losses from declining values [9][10] - Individuals should focus on maintaining financial stability and prioritize essential living expenses over real estate investments [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with declining prices and sales, driven by demographic changes, oversupply, and economic pressures [1][4][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices have seen a drastic decline, with some properties in major cities dropping from peak prices of 90,000 yuan per square meter in 2019 to around 60,000 yuan [3]. - The national sales area of new residential properties is projected to decrease by 14.3% in 2024, equating to a loss of nearly 3 trillion yuan in sales revenue [4]. - The average price of second-hand homes across 100 cities has been falling for over 30 consecutive months, indicating a major shift in the real estate market [4]. Group 2: Demographic Factors - China's population has begun to decline, with a reduction of 850,000 in 2022 and an estimated 2.08 million in 2023, leading to decreased housing demand [6][7]. - The aging population is increasing, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above, which is expected to rise to around 400 million in the next five years, further reducing the demand for new housing [7][13]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a significant oversupply of housing, with over 75 million square meters of unsold properties expected by the end of 2024, and around 70 million vacant homes currently [9]. - The real estate market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, particularly in smaller cities where many properties remain unsold for extended periods [9]. Group 4: Economic Influences - The global economic slowdown post-pandemic, along with international conflicts and rising costs, has led to decreased consumer confidence and spending, negatively impacting the housing market [11]. - The financial struggles of developers are evident, with many large firms facing significant debt repayments, forcing them to lower prices to generate cash flow [14]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes, such as the implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations, may increase costs for property owners, potentially leading to more properties being sold in a saturated market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market showed initial signs of recovery in early 2025, but the momentum quickly faded, leading to a significant decline in transaction volumes and an increase in listings, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2][3]. Market Performance - In March 2025, Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume reached 21,300 units, surpassing the critical threshold of 20,000 units, but over 60% of these transactions involved sellers reducing prices by more than 15% or properties priced between 3 million to 5 million [1]. - By April 2025, transaction volumes dropped to 18,100 units, and further declined to 17,500 units in May, stabilizing around 16,000 units during the summer [2]. - As of early August 2025, the number of second-hand listings in Shanghai exceeded 200,000, a significant increase from less than 100,000 two years prior [3][4]. Price Trends - The average transaction period for second-hand homes extended from 180 days last year to 245 days this year, indicating a growing fear among sellers regarding the time it takes to sell properties [4]. - The average negotiation space for second-hand homes increased from 5.2% to 9.8%, yet buyers remain hesitant to make purchases [6]. - In the second quarter, housing prices outside the inner ring fell by 2.1%, while prices within the inner ring decreased by 0.6%, reflecting a downward trend in property values [6]. Luxury Market Dynamics - Despite the overall market decline, luxury properties priced above 30 million yuan saw a slight increase in transactions by 5% in the first half of 2025, indicating that high-end real estate remains a stable investment [4]. - Notable price reductions were observed in luxury properties, with some listings experiencing significant markdowns, such as a property that sold for 61 million yuan after being listed at 120 million yuan [4]. Rental Market Insights - The average rental price in Shanghai fell by 4.5% year-on-year in July 2025, with some long-term rental apartments offering incentives such as two months free rent for a one-year lease [7]. - The rental yield of 1.8% is not competitive compared to government bonds, raising questions about the viability of investing in rental properties [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant price declines across major cities, with many households facing challenges related to property ownership and liquidity as home values decrease. Group 1: Price Declines - Major cities have seen substantial price corrections, with Wenzhou experiencing the largest drop of -63.14%, while cities like Dongguan and Huizhou follow with declines of -58.82% and -49.01% respectively [1][2] - Current home prices in various cities are significantly lower than historical peaks, indicating a trend of decreasing property values [1][2] Group 2: Challenges for Homeowners - Approximately 45% of households own multiple properties, and many are struggling with the difficulty of liquidating these assets as market demand wanes [4][10] - Homeowners are facing three main challenges: wealth depreciation due to falling property values, increasing holding costs, and difficulties in renting out properties [10][12][14] - The cost of maintaining multiple properties is rising, with expenses such as property management, repairs, and potential future property taxes adding financial pressure [12][16] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The oversupply of housing options, particularly after significant government stimulus measures, has led to increased vacancy rates and reduced demand for traditional real estate investments [6][8] - A shift in demographic trends, including declining birth rates and slower urbanization, is contributing to a decrease in housing demand, making it less likely for prices to rebound [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant price drop in a new residential development in Guangzhou, highlighting the impact on existing homeowners and the overall real estate market in the area [1][2][6]. Price Changes - A new residential project in Guangzhou saw the price of a 73 square meter three-bedroom unit drop from over 3 million yuan to 145,000 yuan, representing a nearly 50% decrease in just one year [1][2]. - The current price for a 146 square meter five-bedroom unit is 290,000 yuan, indicating a substantial reduction in property values [1]. Market Reaction - Existing homeowners expressed frustration over the drastic price cuts, leading to protests at the sales office, but the developer maintained that the pricing was based on market conditions [2][6]. - The developer's response to the protests indicates a firm stance on pricing strategy despite homeowner dissatisfaction [2]. Property Features and Comparisons - The new development is positioned near high-quality educational institutions and offers modern amenities, with a total of six buildings and a starting price of 19,000 yuan per square meter [4]. - In contrast, older second-hand properties in the area are priced significantly higher, with some reaching 40,000 yuan per square meter [4]. Overall Market Trends - The overall real estate market in Guangzhou is experiencing a downward trend, with average prices declining by over 2,000 yuan in the past year [10]. - Despite some areas seeing price increases, the general sentiment is one of caution, with many potential buyers waiting for further price drops [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuous decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, highlighting the changing dynamics in the real estate market and the impact on both second-hand and new housing sales [2][3][4]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Market Trends - In July, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 30 key cities has declined for four consecutive months, with first-tier cities and certain second-tier cities experiencing the most significant drops [2]. - The average listing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou have decreased by approximately 17.6%, 17.1%, and 15% from their peak values, indicating a shift in seller mentality towards quicker sales [3]. - The transaction price stability contrasts with the declining listing prices, suggesting a widening gap between transaction prices and listing prices, with the discount rate increasing before a second decline [3]. Group 2: Changes in Transaction Structure - The share of low-priced, essential housing transactions has increased, while the demand for mid-to-high-end properties has weakened, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards affordability [4][6]. - In terms of area, small units (below 70 square meters) account for about 40% of transactions in Beijing and Shanghai, while in Hangzhou, this figure is around 21%, showing a concentration in smaller properties [6]. - Over 60% of transactions are now in the low total price segment (below 3 million), with significant increases in market share for this category, reflecting the dominance of first-time buyers in the current market [9]. Group 3: Impact on New Housing Market - The decline in second-hand housing transactions is affecting the "sell old to buy new" dynamic, putting pressure on the new housing market, particularly in mid-to-high-end segments [11]. - The primary price range for new housing transactions is between 1 million to 3 million, which contrasts with the low total price segment dominating second-hand sales, indicating a disconnect in market demand [11].

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent trends in the Hangzhou real estate market, particularly focusing on the experiences of a new resident, Zhou Li, who is looking to purchase a home after observing a decline in property prices since their peak in 2021 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since 2016, the Hangzhou real estate market has been on an upward trajectory, peaking in 2021 before experiencing a downturn [1]. - Zhou Li, who moved to Hangzhou four to five years ago, initially faced high property prices that forced them to rent instead of buying [1]. Group 2: Property Purchase Experience - Zhou Li discovered a property in Dongxin Garden, a 20-year-old residential area, which had seen a significant price drop, making it an attractive option for purchase [1][3]. - The property in question was listed at 2 million yuan, down from a previous high of 3 million yuan, reflecting the seller's attempts to adjust to market conditions [3]. - Ultimately, Zhou Li purchased the property for 1.72 million yuan, achieving a price per square meter of 21,000 yuan, which was below the tax valuation of 1.76 million yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Ganzhou is facing significant challenges, with declining property prices and a growing disconnect between buyers and sellers [3][4][6]. Market Conditions - Recent trends indicate a downward trajectory in property prices across the country, with Ganzhou experiencing similar declines, particularly in essential housing areas where minimum transaction prices are being repeatedly reset [4][8]. - As of June 5, 2025, there are 27,404 listings on a major second-hand housing platform, an increase from 23,656 listings in May of the previous year, indicating a growing supply of properties for sale [10]. Seller Sentiment - Homeowners are experiencing substantial financial pressure due to property devaluation, leading to a reluctance to accept significant price reductions [5][6]. - Many sellers still hold onto the belief that property values will stabilize or increase, reflecting a mindset shaped by years of market growth [5]. Buyer Behavior - Buyers are increasingly empowered in negotiations, leading to a widening gap in price expectations between buyers and sellers [10]. - A notable comment from a social media user suggests that a property currently valued at 200 million could drop to 70 million within three years, highlighting a pervasive pessimism about the market [2][12]. Market Outlook - The current market environment necessitates a reevaluation of price expectations from both buyers and sellers to facilitate smoother transactions [12]. - The ability to identify "value" in the current market conditions is crucial for potential buyers in Ganzhou [12].