孙少睡 楼市成交量会在这个时间点后提升 最近外资的一些研报有点嘲讽的意味。瑞银的报告说我们的房价至少再跌两年。 报告里有个细节，说现在的买房人越来越专业，开始大量出现投资名词，更看重实际能获取的利益。 其实也正常，这样一个楼市环境，只有更专业的人才能稳住身形。 过去买房主要靠概念，看规划，听故事。什么这里要做世界级的文旅城啦，那里要规划某某国际部啦之 类的。 买房人都信。不过也正是因为都信，才搞得恒大之流最后留下了这么多问题。 这种事情多了，买房人也只能让自己越来越聪明，越来越专业。 用瑞银的话说，就是买房人的预期从"短期企稳"转向了"长期调整共识"。 翻译成大白话就是，市场不再幻想楼市再度起飞，房价还会继续下行很长一段时间的共识基本形成。 这种共识形成之后，反而会让楼市成交再度有一些起色。其实并不会影响大家买房。 因为预期变了，大家反而安心。下跌确定性带来的成交量是优于信心缺失的。 因为确定性摆在这里，能接受下跌的人就会买，不能接受下跌的人就不买。 瑞银的数据是，现在一线城市的平均租售比只有1.8%，而按揭利率平均是3.1%。 说明房子的租金甚至不够房屋利息。要想让租金和月供持平，首付得至少付到60%。 而 ...

曾经被视作财富增长引擎的房地产，如今光环褪去，赚钱效应大不如前。这种转变，如同多米诺骨牌，引发了一系列连锁反应。往昔，房价的上涨如同磁 石，吸引着投资客蜂拥而至，推波助澜。而今，下跌的趋势却让他们望而却步，纷纷选择退出或持币观望，市场热度骤降。 具体来看，根据相关数据，2022年11月，在全国70个大中城市中，新建商品住宅售价环比下降的城市多达51个，二手住宅售价下降的城市更是高达62个。这 意味着，超过七成的新房市场和接近九成的二手房市场都面临着价格下行的压力。与此同时，头部房企的销售额也大幅缩水。2022年1月至11月，TOP100房 企的销售总额为67268.1亿元，同比大幅下降42.1%，市场寒意可见一斑。 导致楼市"量价齐跌"的原因，除了投资炒房需求的退潮，更与宏观经济环境息息相关。疫情反复冲击着实体经济，企业经营困难，裁员降薪的消息屡见不 鲜。这直接影响了居民的收入预期，许多原本计划购房的家庭不得不暂时搁置计划，市场需求端受到严重抑制。 国内房地产市场正经历一场深刻的变革。首先，让我们回顾一下刚刚过去的2022年，楼市所呈现的景象：寒意渐浓，颓势显现。 面对当前楼市的调整，网络上流传着一种颇为激进 ...

李伟站在售楼处的沙盘前，手指无意识地摩挲着户型图折角。这个位于北京南五环的楼盘，去年开盘时 单价6.2万，如今已跌至4.8万。 "首付只要百分之二十，现在买房还能享受车位优惠。"售楼小姐的声音甜美依旧，却带着一丝不易察觉 的急切。 按常理，这正是李伟期待已久的时刻。在北京打拼八年，他一直盼着房价下跌。可当真站在这里，手里 攥着这些年省吃俭用存下的六十万，他却犹豫了。 一、越等越不敢买的心态 回到租住的房子里，李伟打开笔记本电脑，加入每周五晚上的"购房观望群"线上讨论。这个五百人的微 信群，聚集了全国各地的无房族。 "我看中的那个小区，已经从峰值跌了百分之二十五，可我还是下不了手。"群主小王在石家庄叹 气，"总感觉还会再跌。" 数据显示，2023年全国商品房销售面积比2021年峰值下降约百分之三十，销售额下降约百分之三十五。 价格确实在跌，但成交量萎缩得更厉害。 李伟想起上周末回家，父亲在饭桌上说："邻居老张的儿子上个月买了婚房，这才过四周，同一个楼盘 又降了五百一平。老张气得吃不下饭。" 这就是问题的核心—— 。 二、预期改变：从"永远涨"到"可能跌" 就在两年前，李伟的大学同学刘伟坚信"京房永远涨"，借钱凑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a prolonged adjustment period, with a continuous decline in housing prices expected to persist into 2025, leading to a potential regret for those who choose to buy now rather than wait [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - National second-hand housing prices have been declining for over 30 months, with an average year-on-year drop of 7.34% in August alone, and an overall decline exceeding 30% [1][3]. - In certain areas like Zhuozhou and Yanjiao, housing prices have plummeted nearly 60%, indicating severe market distress [1][3]. - Various stimulus policies have been introduced, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in most cities, increased housing provident fund loan limits, and a reduction in first-home loan interest rates to a historic low of 3.2% [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There are approximately 600 million residential buildings in China, sufficient to accommodate a population of 6 billion if each building houses 10 people, with millions of new properties expected to enter the market annually [4][6]. - A staggering 96% of households already own at least one property, with 41.5% owning two or more, indicating a saturation of demand for new housing [6][7]. - The aging population is expected to further diminish the demand for new housing, as many elderly individuals already own homes and younger generations face challenges such as inheritance and declining birth rates [7][10]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - The real estate market is entering a long-term deep adjustment phase after over 20 years of rapid growth, with persistent price bubbles remaining in major cities [9][12]. - In cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, the price-to-income ratio is as high as 40 times, meaning residents would need to save for 40 years without spending to afford a home [9][12]. - Future housing prices are expected to align more closely with residents' income levels, suggesting that those who wait to purchase may benefit from more favorable pricing in the future [12].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's recent survey indicates a growing urgency among residents to sell their properties, while the desire to purchase homes continues to decline [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Expectations - The survey reveals that 33% of respondents expect home prices to decline over the next 12 months, a slight decrease from 36% in April [5][7]. - In first-tier cities, the expectation of price declines is even higher, with 50% of respondents anticipating a drop [5][7]. - The divergence in opinions regarding future price movements suggests that the market has not yet reached its bottom, as consensus is lacking [3][4]. Group 2: Buyer and Seller Intentions - The willingness to purchase homes remains low, with only 51% of respondents considering buying in the future, and just 16% indicating they are "very likely" to buy [12][15]. - Among potential sellers, 44% plan to sell within the next six months, and 66% intend to sell within a year [16][17]. - A significant shift in sentiment is noted, with 56% of homeowners now willing to accept losses on their sales, up from 43% in April [19][21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current market dynamics show a decrease in demand and an increase in supply, leading to a bearish sentiment [27]. - Without substantial policy support, the downward pressure on home prices, particularly in first-tier cities, is expected to persist [10][27]. - The emotional aspect of the market, driven by expectations and sentiment, plays a crucial role in short-term price fluctuations [25][26].