Report Overview - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a public consultation announcement on platinum, palladium futures and options contracts and related rules on July 31, 2025, indicating the upcoming official listing of these products, which further improves the precious metal derivatives system and provides new risk management tools and investment opportunities for investors [1] - This report focuses on the metallic properties of platinum group metals and analyzes the historical price trends of palladium [1] Palladium Spot Price Trends Long - term Trends - From 2006 to 2015, palladium prices moved in sync with gold and silver, benefiting from global liquidity expansion and increased risk - aversion demand. After the 2008 financial crisis, all three metals rebounded strongly [5] - After 2015, palladium developed an independent trend. Driven by the explosion in automotive catalyst demand and supply shortages in South Africa, its price reached a historical peak of $3,433.00 per ounce around 2021, outperforming gold and silver [5] - Since 2022, palladium prices have declined due to the acceleration of the new - energy transition and the slowdown of the global economy, while gold and silver prices have remained relatively stable supported by central bank gold purchases and risk - aversion demand [5] Recent Trends - From 2023 - 2025, the palladium market showed unique characteristics, with more volatile price movements compared to other precious metals, influenced by both industrial and financial attributes [10] - In early 2025, the market was in a volatile pattern. In May, the expected copper tariff in the US led to preventive purchases of palladium due to its co - application with copper in the automotive and industrial sectors, and geopolitical uncertainties also redirected some funds to palladium [10] - The supply side has been tight, with production in Russia and South Africa constrained by geopolitical factors and infrastructure issues. The demand side has seen a structural change, with traditional automotive catalyst demand under long - term pressure from new - energy substitution, but emerging applications in the electronics and hydrogen industries providing new growth points [10][12] - As policy expectations changed, the palladium price corrected. In the long run, the market remains in a tight balance, with the development of the hydrogen industry providing support, and the market is in a transition period from traditional to emerging demand, characterized by high volatility and unique allocation value [12] Introduction to Platinum Group Metals - Platinum group metals (PGMs) include platinum (Pt), palladium (Pd), rhodium (Rh), iridium (Ir), osmium (Os), and ruthenium (Ru). They are important among precious metals and have irreplaceable industrial value in fields such as catalysis, electronics, aerospace, and hydrogen energy [14] - PGMs have unique physical and chemical properties: high melting and boiling points, electrical and thermal stability, chemical inertness, corrosion resistance, oxidation resistance, and excellent catalytic performance [16] - Due to these properties, PGMs and their alloys are indispensable catalyst materials in modern industries, playing a key role in automotive exhaust purification, petrochemical hydrocracking, and fine - chemical organic synthesis [17] Palladium Industry Chain Structure Upstream - The upstream of the palladium industry includes exploration, mining, and rough refining. Global palladium resources are highly concentrated in Russia and South Africa, which together contribute over 80% of global production. The main task is to extract palladium concentrates from copper - nickel symbiotic ores. China is at a disadvantage in this segment and mostly relies on imports [20] Mid - stream - The mid - stream focuses on purification and standardized product production. Palladium is purified to ≥99.95% purity through techniques such as solvent extraction and ion exchange, and is converted into palladium ingots (used for investment reserves) and sponge palladium (the core raw material for automotive catalysts). Chinese companies like Zijin Mining and Yunnan Precious Metals Group participate in global competition through overseas resource deployment and technological upgrades [20] Downstream - The downstream is mainly dominated by automotive catalysts, especially in gasoline vehicle exhaust purification. Other applications include electronics, chemical manufacturing, medical consumption, and the investment market. Recycling is a key supplementary link, with over 70% of recycled palladium coming from scrapped automotive catalysts, and the global recycling supply accounting for 32.5%. China is upgrading its recycling system through the "trade - in" policy [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts in China's futures market is a key step in diversification and internationalization, offering new risk - management tools and investment opportunities. The report focuses on platinum's consumption demand [1]. - Platinum demand has shown significant cyclical fluctuations in the past decade. In 2025, total demand is expected to decline by 5% year - on - year, with structural pressure from the automotive and industrial sectors. The market faces a high - level supply - demand gap and price volatility risks [4][5][7]. - Different sectors have different impacts on platinum demand. The automotive sector is under pressure from electrification; the industrial sector is affected by the end of the glass industry's capacity cycle; the jewelry sector is expected to grow moderately; the investment sector may recover due to increased risk - aversion demand; and the hydrogen energy sector is expected to be the core driver of long - term platinum demand growth [12][13][22][27][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Platinum Demand - Platinum has a wide range of applications, and its industry demand structure is relatively dispersed, with automotive demand accounting for 37%, jewelry demand 24%, industrial demand about 30%, and investment demand 8.5% [3]. - In the past decade, global platinum demand has shown cyclical fluctuations. From 2016 - 2019, demand contracted with a CAGR of - 1%. In 2020, total demand dropped by 7%. From 2023 - 2024, the market entered a recovery cycle with a CAGR of 6%. In 2025, total demand is expected to decline by 5% to 7840000 ounces, and the market faces a high - level supply - demand gap [4][5]. 2. Automotive Field - The automotive industry is the largest demand end for platinum, contributing 29% - 42% of global total demand in the past five years. In 2024, automotive platinum demand decreased by 2% year - on - year, and in 2025, it is expected to contract marginally to 3080000 ounces due to factors such as the increase in pure - electric vehicle production and import tariffs [12]. 3. Industrial Field - The industrial field is the second - largest demand end for platinum, accounting for 27% - 36% in the past five years. In 2024, global demand was stable at 2470000 ounces, and in 2025, it is expected to drop by 14% to 2120000 ounces, mainly due to the decline in the glass industry and chemical consumption [13]. - **Chemical Industry**: Platinum is mainly used as a catalyst in the chemical industry. In 2024, demand was 940000 ounces, and in 2025, it is expected to decline by 14% to 810000 ounces [14][17]. - **Petroleum Industry**: Platinum is used as a catalyst in the petroleum refining process. In 2024, the demand was about 707300 ounces, and the growth rate slowed down to 1.5% [17]. - **Electrical and Electronic Industry**: Platinum is used in core components such as HDDs and MLCCs. With the recovery of AI and other demands, the demand for platinum is showing a restorative growth [17]. - **Glass Industry**: Platinum is an irreplaceable material in the glass - making industry. In 2024, demand decreased by 42.97% year - on - year, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 13.45% [18]. - **Medical Industry**: Platinum is widely used in cancer treatment, implantable devices, and diagnostic equipment. The global demand for platinum in the medical field is expected to expand due to the aging population and the development of precision medicine [19]. 4. Industrial Hydrogen Production - Platinum is a core catalyst material in the hydrogen - energy industry, covering the entire "hydrogen production - storage - utilization" chain. In 2024, demand increased by 92% year - on - year, and in 2025, it is expected to grow by 35%. By 2030, it is expected to become the core incremental engine of global platinum demand [21][22]. 5. Jewelry - Jewelry is an important elastic contribution sector for platinum demand, accounting for about 24% of the total demand. In 2024, global platinum jewelry demand increased by 8% year - on - year, and in 2025, it is expected to grow moderately by 1% - 3% [26][27]. 6. Investment - The investment sector is the most volatile part of the platinum demand structure, with the net investment volume accounting for 8% - 21% of the total demand. In 2024, it showed a pattern of "low physical investment and growing ETF investment", and in 2025, investment demand is expected to continue to recover due to increased risk - aversion demand [31][32][34].