Workflow
钯期货及期权合约
icon
Search documents
格林大华期货铂钯上市专题系列(三):铂金消费需求情况
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 08:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts in China's futures market is a key step in diversification and internationalization, offering new risk - management tools and investment opportunities. The report focuses on platinum's consumption demand [1]. - Platinum demand has shown significant cyclical fluctuations in the past decade. In 2025, total demand is expected to decline by 5% year - on - year, with structural pressure from the automotive and industrial sectors. The market faces a high - level supply - demand gap and price volatility risks [4][5][7]. - Different sectors have different impacts on platinum demand. The automotive sector is under pressure from electrification; the industrial sector is affected by the end of the glass industry's capacity cycle; the jewelry sector is expected to grow moderately; the investment sector may recover due to increased risk - aversion demand; and the hydrogen energy sector is expected to be the core driver of long - term platinum demand growth [12][13][22][27][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Platinum Demand - Platinum has a wide range of applications, and its industry demand structure is relatively dispersed, with automotive demand accounting for 37%, jewelry demand 24%, industrial demand about 30%, and investment demand 8.5% [3]. - In the past decade, global platinum demand has shown cyclical fluctuations. From 2016 - 2019, demand contracted with a CAGR of - 1%. In 2020, total demand dropped by 7%. From 2023 - 2024, the market entered a recovery cycle with a CAGR of 6%. In 2025, total demand is expected to decline by 5% to 7840000 ounces, and the market faces a high - level supply - demand gap [4][5]. 2. Automotive Field - The automotive industry is the largest demand end for platinum, contributing 29% - 42% of global total demand in the past five years. In 2024, automotive platinum demand decreased by 2% year - on - year, and in 2025, it is expected to contract marginally to 3080000 ounces due to factors such as the increase in pure - electric vehicle production and import tariffs [12]. 3. Industrial Field - The industrial field is the second - largest demand end for platinum, accounting for 27% - 36% in the past five years. In 2024, global demand was stable at 2470000 ounces, and in 2025, it is expected to drop by 14% to 2120000 ounces, mainly due to the decline in the glass industry and chemical consumption [13]. - **Chemical Industry**: Platinum is mainly used as a catalyst in the chemical industry. In 2024, demand was 940000 ounces, and in 2025, it is expected to decline by 14% to 810000 ounces [14][17]. - **Petroleum Industry**: Platinum is used as a catalyst in the petroleum refining process. In 2024, the demand was about 707300 ounces, and the growth rate slowed down to 1.5% [17]. - **Electrical and Electronic Industry**: Platinum is used in core components such as HDDs and MLCCs. With the recovery of AI and other demands, the demand for platinum is showing a restorative growth [17]. - **Glass Industry**: Platinum is an irreplaceable material in the glass - making industry. In 2024, demand decreased by 42.97% year - on - year, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 13.45% [18]. - **Medical Industry**: Platinum is widely used in cancer treatment, implantable devices, and diagnostic equipment. The global demand for platinum in the medical field is expected to expand due to the aging population and the development of precision medicine [19]. 4. Industrial Hydrogen Production - Platinum is a core catalyst material in the hydrogen - energy industry, covering the entire "hydrogen production - storage - utilization" chain. In 2024, demand increased by 92% year - on - year, and in 2025, it is expected to grow by 35%. By 2030, it is expected to become the core incremental engine of global platinum demand [21][22]. 5. Jewelry - Jewelry is an important elastic contribution sector for platinum demand, accounting for about 24% of the total demand. In 2024, global platinum jewelry demand increased by 8% year - on - year, and in 2025, it is expected to grow moderately by 1% - 3% [26][27]. 6. Investment - The investment sector is the most volatile part of the platinum demand structure, with the net investment volume accounting for 8% - 21% of the total demand. In 2024, it showed a pattern of "low physical investment and growing ETF investment", and in 2025, investment demand is expected to continue to recover due to increased risk - aversion demand [31][32][34].
铂钯上市专题系列(一):铂金价格走势及产业链介绍
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 10:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, Guangzhou Futures Exchange released a public consultation announcement on platinum and palladium futures and options contracts and related rules, indicating the upcoming official listing of these varieties, which is a significant step in the diversification and internationalization of China's futures market [1]. - The long - term price trend of platinum and gold was highly correlated before 2015, but they diverged after 2015. Gold entered a bull market due to factors like quantitative easing, central bank purchases, and geopolitical conflicts, while platinum was suppressed by weak demand and high inventory [4]. - In the short - term, platinum prices first rose due to the proposed copper tariff by the Trump administration, increased investment demand, and supply disruptions in South Africa, then回调 in July due to the removal of tariff risks and profit - taking [10][11]. - Despite short - term回调 pressure, the platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand gap until 2029, and its price center may gradually move up with the growth of the hydrogen energy sector [13]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Platinum Spot Price 1. Long - term Trend - Before 2015, platinum's price trend was highly correlated with gold. After 2015, gold entered a bull market due to factors such as quantitative easing, central bank purchases, and geopolitical conflicts, while platinum faced weak demand due to global economic slowdown and high ground inventory, and its price fluctuated around the cost [4]. 2. Recent Trend - In Q1 2025, the platinum market continued to fluctuate. In May, the news of a proposed 50% tariff on copper by the Trump administration led to a surge in short - term demand, increased investment demand as a substitute for gold, and supply disruptions in South Africa, pushing up the price. In July, after the US announced a tariff exemption for refined copper imports, the price回调 due to reduced hoarding and profit - taking [10][11]. II. Platinum Group Metals Introduction - Platinum group metals (PGMs) include platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, osmium, and ruthenium. They have unique physical and chemical properties such as high melting and boiling points, electro - thermal stability, chemical inertness, corrosion resistance, oxidation resistance, and excellent catalytic performance, and are widely used in modern industry as catalysts [17][18]. III. Platinum Industry Chain Structure - The upstream of the platinum industry involves exploration, mining, and preliminary processing of platinum mines, mainly located in South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe. The mid - stream focuses on refining and processing platinum into industrial and commercial products. The downstream includes end - use and consumer markets such as automotive, chemical, electronics, and investment [22][25].