VanEck Australia跨资产投资策略师Anna Wu指出，美债下跌是因为投资者正在平仓"中美贸易关系恶化时盲目追逐避险资产"的叙事，不过，在双方进一步磋 商前收益率可能维持区间波动，任何重大变数仍可能再度引发条件反射式的避险买盘。 当前市场波动剧烈，交易员正密切关注美联储政策决议及中美元首会晤结果，而本轮抛售恰逢市场开盘时段。若谈判陷入僵局或央行利率决策出现意外，美 债抛售压力可能迅速逆转，加剧本周宏观交易波动。 智通财经APP获悉，受中美即将达成贸易协议的乐观预期推动，市场避险需求减弱，美国国债遭遇抛售压力。在两国谈判代表就关税与出口管制等问题达成 系列协议后，10年期基准美债收益率一度攀升4个基点至4.04%，创一周多来新高;5年期及2年期美债收益率同步上涨3个基点，风险情绪改善部分抵消了市场 对美联储本周降息的预期。 值得注意的是，美国政府关门已创史上第二长纪录，导致关键经济数据缺失，进一步放大了利率仓位风险。尽管如此，隔夜指数掉期交易显示，市场几乎已 定价美联储本周及12月将下调基准利率。 策略师加菲尔德·雷诺兹分析认为，在美联储准备降息并结束量化紧缩、叠加政府关门持续的背景下，美债跌幅可能 ...

智通财经APP获悉，尽管市场对全球贸易紧张局势缓解及美国政府即将重启的乐观预期升温，黄金价格仍维持历史高位震荡，显示避险需求持续强劲。周一 盘中，金价一度飙升3.1%至每盎司4381.52美元，刷新纪录高位。技术面指标如相对强弱指数(RSI)显示，8月以来的凶猛涨势或已过度，难以再出现这种狂 热涨势。 市场焦点集中于中美关系最新进展：美国总统特朗普表示，在双方重返谈判桌前将与中国"友好相处"，但重申若11月1日前未达成协议，将对中国商品加征 关税。值得注意的是，美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特暗示，美国政府关门状态或于本周内结束。 今年以来，贵金属市场持续飙升，黄金已连续第九周上涨，2025年迄今涨幅超65%，主要受央行持续购金、ETF资金流入以及地缘政治风险、财政债务攀 升、美联储独立性受质疑等多重避险因素驱动。 白银表现更为亮眼，年内涨幅超80%，除共享黄金的宏观避险逻辑外，伦敦市场历史性供应紧缺推动其价格走高——当前白银基准价仍高于纽约期货价，尽 管两大市场价差已从上周3美元收窄至约1美元，但跨市场套利机会仍存。 截至发稿，现货金小幅下跌0.11%至每盎司4351.70美元，美元指数微跌0.1%。白银价格跌 ...

Group 1 - Gold is trading around $3337.78 per ounce, with a brief dip to $3320 due to optimistic trade expectations following a trade agreement between the US and EU [1] - US crude oil is trading at approximately $65.18 per barrel, with geopolitical tensions from Houthi forces threatening maritime operations, which supports oil prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is under scrutiny as the White House pressures Chairman Powell to significantly lower interest rates, with current rates at 4.25%-4.5% [1] Group 2 - The last week of July is significant with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, non-farm payroll data, and PCE price index data to be released [2] - The gold market is currently under pressure from short positions after a significant drop, making the weekly close crucial [2] Group 3 - Gold has encountered resistance around $3438 and has retreated to a support level near $3320, indicating a potential for short-term upward movement despite bearish signals on daily charts [4] - The operational strategy for gold suggests buying near $3330 with a stop loss at $3320 and targeting $3342-48, while also considering short positions around $3345 [4] Group 4 - Crude oil continues to show a weak and volatile trend, with daily movements indicating a lack of strong upward momentum [5] - The operational strategy for crude oil suggests selling near $66.10 with a stop loss at $67.00 and targeting $64.50 [5]