2025年5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称《声明》）。资本市场反响热烈，恒 生指数大涨3%，人民币升破7.2关口。 一、双边关税：超预期大幅下行 结合双方信息，此次中美主要达成了三方面共识。 资料来源：招商银行研究院 二是双方同意设立中美经贸磋商机制， 定期在中、美或第三国开展对话，重点解决供应链安全、数字贸易规 则等议题。 三是达成部分产业共识， 美中双方已就五到六个具有战略意义的产业链供应链脆弱环节达成初步共识，如医 药和钢铁等行业，美国将在这些领域寻求供应链独立性，并优先从盟友国家获取稳定供应。 一是双边关税超预期大幅下行。美国方面，4月2日后对华加征的额外关税大幅降至10%， 还有24%的关税将 在"解放日"后的90天内暂停实施。如此一来，5月14日后，美国对华对等关税将由125%降至10%，此部分"基础 关税"或长期保留。叠加2-3月累计加征的20%"芬太尼"关税，特朗普2.0时期对华加征的关税将降至30%。特朗 普政府在对等关税的实施上对所有国家"一视同仁"，对中国也按下了暂停键。加上特朗普1.0时期所加征的关 税， 当前美国对华平均关税为42.7%。 结合各方信息研判 ...

Export Characteristics - China's exports to the US are highly concentrated in the eastern region, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu provinces accounting for nearly 60% of total exports to the US[2] - In 2024, the total export value to the US reached $524.66 billion, with a trade surplus of $361.03 billion, representing 36.4% of China's overall trade surplus[8] - The top three export categories to the US are electromechanical equipment, textiles and apparel, and furniture and toys, which together account for 77.3% of total exports[14] Import Characteristics - Major import regions include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Sichuan, each exceeding $10 billion in imports from the US, collectively accounting for over 70% of total imports[20] - In 2024, the total import value from the US was $163.62 billion, with electromechanical equipment, mineral products, and food and beverages being the top three categories[25] - Sichuan and Tianjin show high dependency on US imports, with import dependency rates of 18.5% and 14.9% respectively, primarily for advanced manufacturing components[24] Trade Balance - 27 provinces in China have a trade surplus with the US, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu provinces contributing to 70.8% of the total trade surplus of $361.03 billion[32] - Guangdong leads with a surplus of $115.42 billion, followed by Zhejiang at $73.35 billion and Jiangsu at $66.81 billion[32]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of a trade war initiated by former President Trump, who has imposed significant tariffs on imports, particularly targeting China, which has led to volatility in global trade and significant impacts on various provinces in China [2][3][5][6]. Group 1: Tariff Imposition and Market Impact - On April 2, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing a minimum 10% tariff on all imports, with additional tariffs on over 60 countries, including a 34% tariff on China [5][6]. - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing declines of 4.85% and 5.99%, respectively [2]. - By April 9, the tariffs on China escalated to 125%, indicating a rapidly changing trade environment [5][6]. Group 2: Export Dependency of Chinese Provinces - In 2024, China's total exports to the U.S. reached $524.7 billion, with significant contributions from provinces like Guangdong ($133.4 billion), Zhejiang ($88.8 billion), and Jiangsu ($83 billion), each holding a 16% share of their respective total exports [9][10][11]. - Zhejiang province has the highest dependency on U.S. exports at 7.0% of its GDP, followed closely by Guangdong at 6.7% [12][13]. - The article highlights that while Guangdong leads in total export volume, Zhejiang and Jiangsu have a similar share of exports to the U.S. [10][11]. Group 3: City-Level Analysis - At the city level, Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Shanghai are among the top exporters to the U.S., but cities like Jinhua and Xiamen have higher export dependency rates, indicating a need for closer monitoring [14]. - Jinhua's exports are heavily focused on light industrial goods, which are more susceptible to tariff impacts [14][26]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Impacts - The article identifies that machinery and electronics account for 40.4% of total exports to the U.S., followed by textiles and furniture, which are more vulnerable to tariff increases [22][23]. - The U.S. has targeted light industrial products for tariffs, suggesting that provinces with significant exports in these categories, like Zhejiang, will face greater challenges [24][26]. Group 5: Adaptation and Resilience - Despite the challenges posed by the trade war, provinces like Jiangsu and Zhejiang are actively implementing support policies for affected industries [15][16]. - The 137th Canton Fair, held in April 2025, reported a significant increase in international participation, indicating resilience in China's foreign trade sector [18]. Group 6: Long-term Economic Outlook - China's reliance on the U.S. market has decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, suggesting a shift towards diversifying trade partnerships [31]. - The trade war is expected to drive Chinese enterprises towards higher technological advancements and improvements in supply chain management [31].

一、 指数表现 三大股指集体收跌 ， 上证指数下跌 0. 24 %，深证成指跌 1.4 %，创业板指跌1.8 6 % 。 早盘市场情绪低迷，三大指数低开后一度反弹，午后 维持震荡 。全市场超 3 0 00只个股下 跌， 2000 只上涨。成交额 小幅 放量 ， 全天成交 1.13万亿，较昨日增加1631亿元。 二、板块及热点分析 2）机遇：由于特朗普对全球加高额关税，可能将欧盟、东盟推向我们，加大合作。 领涨板块 ： 大消费板块逆势走强 ， 美国将对所有贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对多个贸易 伙伴征收更高税率，据彭博报道，对华累计关税预计升至54%，且对我国企业重要的出海区 域，如东南亚，关税力度同样很大，但对加墨未进一步提升关税力度。关税超预期环境下，提 振内需对国内经济愈发重要，基建和国家重点产业战略（如煤化工等）投资建设有望获得政策 加码支持，而出海和制造业投资短期则面临一定的预期压制。 旅游、零售、白酒、养殖等细分 领域领涨，国芳集团、梦百合等多股涨停。贵州茅台年报业绩稳健（ 2024 年 营 收 增 长 15.66%），提振消费板块信心。 电力与地产股异动： 电力板块受电价改革政策推动 ...