Core Viewpoint - A legal storm regarding the trade powers of the U.S. President is escalating, with a recent appellate court ruling declaring most of President Trump's global tariff policies illegal, creating uncertainty in U.S. trade strategy [1] Legal Timeline - The legal battle's direction will become clearer in the coming weeks, with a critical date of October 14, when the appellate court's stay expires. If the Supreme Court does not intervene by then, the ruling will take effect, leading to the automatic expiration of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1][2] Alternative Tariff Strategies - Even if the IEEPA's use is limited, the Trump administration may still utilize other legal authorizations to maintain tariff pressure, potentially compensating for an expected revenue loss of approximately $150 billion through selective tariff increases [3] Potential Winners - If the Supreme Court restricts presidential tariff powers, large retailers like Amazon and Walmart could benefit from reduced import costs and more competitive pricing. Additionally, exporters from Vietnam, ASEAN countries, Brazil, and India may experience a reduction in trade barriers, creating a positive backdrop for U.S. and global stock markets [4] Potential Losers - The U.S. bond market may face challenges due to decreased tariff revenue exacerbating the already strained fiscal deficit. Furthermore, tariffs on strategic sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and steel may persist, leading to supply chain volatility. The global shipping and logistics industry could also encounter new compliance challenges and unpredictable costs due to fragmented trade policies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by President Trump were illegal, stating that he exceeded his authority in imposing these tariffs [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections - The Appeals Court upheld a previous ruling by the International Trade Court, which found that Trump improperly invoked an emergency powers law to implement these tariffs [3]. - The International Trade Court had previously blocked the tariff policy announced on April 2, citing that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate trade with other nations, and the emergency powers claimed by the President do not supersede this authority [3]. - The Appeals Court has agreed to stay the ruling until October 14, allowing the government time to appeal to the Supreme Court [3].