贸易谈判乐观预期

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大越期货贵金属早报-20250523
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After Trump's tax bill was approved by the House of Representatives and submitted to the Senate, gold and silver prices declined. However, the logic has shifted to the US tax - cut bill, and although there is still pressure from the optimistic expectation of trade negotiations, the upward trend of gold prices has returned, and silver prices follow gold prices [4][6] - Due to Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices [11][14] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Trump's tax bill was approved by the House and submitted to the Senate, causing the gold price to decline slightly. US stocks had mixed performance, European stocks fell across the board, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 7.58 basis points to 4.529%, the offshore RMB fluctuated slightly at 7.2049, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.56% to $3295.10 per ounce [4] - **Silver**: After Trump's tax bill was approved by the House and submitted to the Senate, the silver price declined. US stocks had mixed performance, European stocks fell across the board, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 7.58 basis points to 4.529%, the offshore RMB fluctuated slightly at 7.2049, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.39% to $33.18 per ounce [6] 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.22, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price (bearish). The inventory of gold futures increased by 9 kilograms to 17,247 kilograms (bearish). The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (neutral). The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force decreased (bullish) [5] - **Silver**: The basis is - 31, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price (neutral). The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8,398 kilograms to 949,197 kilograms (neutral). The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force decreased (bullish) [7] 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's April CPI - 09:20 A - share pharmaceutical leader Hengrui Medicine is listed in Hong Kong - 14:00 Germany's final GDP for the first quarter - 16:30 ECB Chief Economist Lane speaks on "Eurozone inflation and inflation decline" - 20:30 Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a CNBC program - 21:35 Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and St. Louis Fed President Musalem participate in a fireside chat on the Fed and the US economy - 22:00 US April new home sales - 22:30 Bank of England Chief Economist Pill speaks - 00:00 the next day Fed Governor Lisa Cook talks about financial stability [17] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, high - risk aversion sentiment, rising US stagflation expectations and renewed interest - rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and the impact of tariff concerns. Bearish factors are not clearly stated. The logic is that due to Trump's inauguration, inflation expectations have shifted to economic recession expectations, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The new US government's policy expectations and actual verification will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise rather than fall [11][15] - **Silver**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, high - risk aversion sentiment, rising US stagflation expectations and renewed interest - rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and the support of non - ferrous metal tariffs on silver prices. Bearish factors include the end of interest - rate cuts, improved economic expectations, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, the US once again standing out, deteriorated risk preferences, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The logic is that due to Trump's inauguration, inflation expectations have shifted to economic recession expectations, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [14][15] 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: As of May 22, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 7,099 to 199,127, the short position decreased by 987 to 83,681, and the net position increased by 8,086 to 115,446 [33] - **Silver**: As of May 22, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 13,462 to 495,792, the short position increased by 7,156 to 331,014, and the net position increased by 6,306 to 164,778 [35]
新加坡银行:台湾出口商抛售美元和险资对冲操作助推新台币飙升
news flash· 2025-05-05 02:39
Core Viewpoint - The strong appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) against the US Dollar is driven by optimistic expectations in trade negotiations, increased dollar selling by Taiwanese exporters, and intensified foreign exchange hedging operations by life insurance companies [1] Group 1 - Taiwanese exporters are actively selling US Dollars, contributing to the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar [1] - Life insurance companies are increasing their foreign exchange hedging activities, further supporting the TWD's strength [1] - The intervention by the Central Bank of Taiwan in the foreign exchange market has decreased, which may also be a factor in the TWD's rise [1]