Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **U.S. Labor Market**: In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls were revised up to 144,000, primarily driven by state and local governments, as well as healthcare and social assistance projects. The leisure and hospitality sectors saw growth, while business services and manufacturing experienced job losses [1][2]. - **China's PMI Data**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was at 49, indicating contraction, while the services PMI was at 50, and the construction PMI was at 52, showing mixed performance across sectors. Manufacturing and construction showed signs of recovery, but services declined [1][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Employment Data**: The recent non-farm data exceeded market expectations with 147,000 new jobs added, compared to an expectation of 106,000. The unemployment rate (U3) fell to 4.1%, and U6 to 7.7%. Labor force participation dropped to 62.3%, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2][5]. - **Monetary Policy Divergence**: Federal Reserve officials are divided on future monetary policy, with some advocating for preemptive rate cuts to avoid labor market cooling, while others emphasize caution due to the current economic stability [5][17]. - **Impact of Tax Legislation**: The recent tax bill passed by the U.S. Congress is expected to increase the federal deficit significantly, with a projected increase of $4.1 trillion in the deficit and interest payments. The short-term impact on economic growth is expected to be limited, with long-term growth potentially falling below current expectations [3][12][15]. Additional Important Content - **Manufacturing Sector Challenges**: The manufacturing sector faces challenges such as low price indices, which compress future profit margins, and a growing proportion of companies reporting insufficient demand. The midstream equipment manufacturing sector is performing better than downstream consumer goods [8][11]. - **Service and Construction Sector Performance**: The service sector saw a slight decline in June, particularly in contact services, while the construction sector showed a month-on-month increase but remains at historically low levels due to insufficient real estate investment demand [9][10]. - **Long-term Economic Projections**: The tax bill is projected to have a limited short-term effect on economic growth, with estimates suggesting a peak increase of 0 to 0.06 percentage points by 2026, followed by a gradual decline [15][16]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted significant developments in both the U.S. and Chinese economies, with a focus on labor market trends, monetary policy divergence, and the implications of recent tax legislation. The manufacturing sector in China is showing signs of recovery, but challenges remain, particularly in pricing and demand. The U.S. economy is navigating a complex landscape influenced by fiscal policy changes and labor market dynamics.

Group 1 - Current US-China trade relations show significant signs of easing, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold, which is currently undergoing a phase of adjustment, although gold's safe-haven attributes will limit its downside potential [1] - Recent data indicates that the negative impact of tariff policies on the US economy is becoming evident, with the manufacturing PMI index remaining weak and the services PMI index experiencing its first contraction in a year [1][2] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 48.5, the lowest since November of the previous year, with new orders index at 47.6, highlighting the impact of tariff increases on demand [1] Group 2 - The ISM services PMI for May fell to 49.9, significantly below expectations, with the new orders index dropping to 46.4, marking the largest decline since June 2024 [2] - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, reflecting tightening labor supply rather than strong demand [3] Group 3 - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to nearly $3.3 trillion in May, with gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.83 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [4] - Since November 2022, China's central bank has cumulatively added 10.16 million ounces of gold, although the pace of accumulation has slowed in recent months [4] - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, saw a slight year-on-year increase of 1% in Q1 2025, with central banks remaining significant buyers despite a slight slowdown [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic impacts and risks associated with the recently passed OBBB Act, which extends tax cuts and modifies tax policies in the U.S. economy, highlighting three main risks: financing risk, economic risk, and trust risk [1][5]. Summary by Sections OBBB Act Overview - The OBBB Act, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on May 22, extends tax cuts from the 2017 TCJA Act, stabilizing tax policy expectations for individuals and businesses [2]. - The act is projected to increase the deficit by $2.3 trillion over the next 10 years, which is $900 billion less than earlier budget proposals, primarily due to significant cuts in welfare programs [2]. Deficit and Debt Implications - The act does not significantly alter the long-term trajectory of U.S. government debt, with a temporary increase in the deficit rate expected to exceed 7% before stabilizing around 6.5% [2]. - The arrangement of tax cuts preceding spending cuts may lead to uncertainties in actual deficit outcomes, as political motivations could affect the execution of spending cuts [3]. Risks Associated with the OBBB Act - **Financing Risk**: The act creates "untimely" pressure on U.S. debt supply, particularly before 2028, in a high inflation and high interest rate environment, potentially leading to mismatches in supply and demand for government bonds [5]. - **Economic Risk**: Certain tax reform provisions may exacerbate income inequality, as many tax cuts are extensions rather than new measures, which could lower expectations for economic stimulation [5]. - **Trust Risk**: New taxes on capital and labor entering the U.S. could undermine trust in the dollar system, potentially leading to a negative feedback loop affecting U.S. credit and economic recovery [5][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the easing of the EU - US trade war and the decline of the US dollar, the gold price is expected to rise. The premium of Shanghai gold remains at around 5 yuan/gram. Due to potential tariff issues and fluctuations in the US tax - cut bill, the gold price remains bullish [4]. - Silver: As the EU - US trade war eases and the US dollar falls, the silver price will oscillate upwards. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to around 520 yuan/kg. With optimistic trade negotiations, the silver price will fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: The EU - US trade war eased, the US stock market was closed, most European stock markets rose, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 98.98, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.7% to $3342.2 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The EU - US trade war eased, the US stock market was closed, most European stock markets rose, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 98.98, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.11% to $33.645 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold** - Basis: The gold futures price is 777.3, the spot price is 774.33, and the basis is - 2.97, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, a neutral signal [4]. - Inventory: The gold futures warehouse receipts are 17,247 kg, unchanged, a bearish signal [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, a neutral signal [4]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force is decreasing, a bullish signal [4]. - **Silver** - Basis: The silver futures price is 8280, the spot price is 8243, and the basis is - 37, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, a neutral signal [6]. - Inventory: The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 957,380 kg, a daily decrease of 3261 kg, a neutral signal [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish signal [6]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force is decreasing, a bullish signal [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Economic data: The preliminary value of US durable goods orders in April, the US housing price index in March [4]. - Speeches: Speeches by the Governor of the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve members [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold** - Bullish factors: Global turmoil leading to high - risk aversion, rising stagflation expectations in the US and renewed expectations of interest - rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to resurgent inflation, and tariff concerns [14]. - Bearish factors: Cessation of interest - rate cuts and improved economic expectations, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion with the US taking the lead again, deterioration of risk appetite, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [14]. - Logic: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation shifted to a recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government continued, and the gold price sentiment was high, remaining prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver** - Bullish factors: Similar to gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports the silver price [14]. - Bearish factors: Similar to gold [14]. - Logic: The silver price mainly follows the gold price. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold** - Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions: On May 26, 2025, the long - position volume was 202,103, an increase of 1.22% from May 25; the short - position volume was 81,225, a decrease of 1.55%; and the net position was 120,878, an increase of 3.17% [27]. - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF position is oscillating and decreasing [31]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts show a certain trend, and the COMEX gold warehouse receipts are slightly decreasing but still at a high level [35][36]. - **Silver** - Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions: On May 26, 2025, the long - position volume was 469,661, an increase of 1.13% from May 23; the short - position volume was 321,277, an increase of 2.00%; and the net position was 148,384, a decrease of 0.69% [29]. - Silver ETF: The ETF position continues to increase, higher than the same period last year [34]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts are slightly increasing, higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts are decreasing [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After Trump's tax bill was approved by the House of Representatives and submitted to the Senate, gold and silver prices declined. However, the logic has shifted to the US tax - cut bill, and although there is still pressure from the optimistic expectation of trade negotiations, the upward trend of gold prices has returned, and silver prices follow gold prices [4][6] - Due to Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices [11][14] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Trump's tax bill was approved by the House and submitted to the Senate, causing the gold price to decline slightly. US stocks had mixed performance, European stocks fell across the board, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 7.58 basis points to 4.529%, the offshore RMB fluctuated slightly at 7.2049, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.56% to $3295.10 per ounce [4] - **Silver**: After Trump's tax bill was approved by the House and submitted to the Senate, the silver price declined. US stocks had mixed performance, European stocks fell across the board, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 7.58 basis points to 4.529%, the offshore RMB fluctuated slightly at 7.2049, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.39% to $33.18 per ounce [6] 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.22, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price (bearish). The inventory of gold futures increased by 9 kilograms to 17,247 kilograms (bearish). The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (neutral). The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force decreased (bullish) [5] - **Silver**: The basis is - 31, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price (neutral). The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8,398 kilograms to 949,197 kilograms (neutral). The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force decreased (bullish) [7] 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's April CPI - 09:20 A - share pharmaceutical leader Hengrui Medicine is listed in Hong Kong - 14:00 Germany's final GDP for the first quarter - 16:30 ECB Chief Economist Lane speaks on "Eurozone inflation and inflation decline" - 20:30 Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a CNBC program - 21:35 Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and St. Louis Fed President Musalem participate in a fireside chat on the Fed and the US economy - 22:00 US April new home sales - 22:30 Bank of England Chief Economist Pill speaks - 00:00 the next day Fed Governor Lisa Cook talks about financial stability [17] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, high - risk aversion sentiment, rising US stagflation expectations and renewed interest - rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and the impact of tariff concerns. Bearish factors are not clearly stated. The logic is that due to Trump's inauguration, inflation expectations have shifted to economic recession expectations, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The new US government's policy expectations and actual verification will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise rather than fall [11][15] - **Silver**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, high - risk aversion sentiment, rising US stagflation expectations and renewed interest - rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and the support of non - ferrous metal tariffs on silver prices. Bearish factors include the end of interest - rate cuts, improved economic expectations, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, the US once again standing out, deteriorated risk preferences, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The logic is that due to Trump's inauguration, inflation expectations have shifted to economic recession expectations, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [14][15] 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: As of May 22, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 7,099 to 199,127, the short position decreased by 987 to 83,681, and the net position increased by 8,086 to 115,446 [33] - **Silver**: As of May 22, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 13,462 to 495,792, the short position increased by 7,156 to 331,014, and the net position increased by 6,306 to 164,778 [35]