Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the text. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The commodity market oscillated last week, closing down 0.27% overall, with only the black sector rising 1.96%, while non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy and chemicals declined by 0.36%, 0.61%, 0.62%, and 0.97% respectively [1]. - The Fed cut interest rates and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1st, but Powell's stance was hawkish, and geopolitical uncertainties, along with a rebound in the US dollar index, may lead to short - term oscillations in the commodity market [1]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may oscillate at high levels; non - ferrous metals may operate stably; the black sector may face pressure; energy prices may oscillate in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term; the chemical industry may oscillate; and in the agricultural products sector, meal is expected to be stronger than oil in the short term [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Summary - **Overall Market**: The commodity market oscillated last week, closing down 0.27%. The black sector was the only one to rise, up 1.96%, while other sectors declined [1]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were apples, iron ore, and coking coal, with increases of 4.38%, 3.76%, and 3% respectively. The top - losing varieties were methanol, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, with declines of 4.05%, 3.92%, and 3.47% respectively [1]. - **Volatility and Capital**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with most varieties in precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black, and chemical sectors seeing an increase in volatility. The overall market capital scale decreased, with only the black sector seeing an increase in capital, and outflows mainly concentrated in the precious metals sector [1]. 2. Sector - by - Sector Outlook - **Precious Metals**: After a short - term oversell, the sector rebounded last week. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and ended balance - sheet reduction, but Powell's hawkish stance and policy disagreements among officials, along with the US government shutdown in a game stage, may lead to high - level oscillations in the sector [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Sino - US economic and trade relations have eased, but Powell's hawkish stance led to a rebound in the US dollar index, and China's PMI unexpectedly declined. The supply side remains tight, but the terminal is weak, and inventories have slightly increased. The sector may operate stably in the short term due to expected incremental stimulus policies and a suspension of trade frictions [2]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar continued to improve last week, production increased, and inventories continued to decline. Hot metal production decreased significantly, and the steel mill profitability rate reached a new low this year. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be relieved. Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, and there are expectations for safety production assessments in the coking coal main production areas, but steel mills have a strong desire to lower raw material prices. The sector may face pressure in the short term [2]. - **Energy**: US EIA data showed that crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories declined more than expected, supporting oil prices. However, the Fed's negative guidance on a December interest - rate cut, the easing of Sino - US relations, and OPEC +'s decision to increase production in December limit the rebound height of oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken in the medium term. With a lack of more positive factors, it may oscillate in the short term. For building materials, the weak reality persists, with rising costs and decreasing inventories, and it may fluctuate with macro - sentiment in the short term [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: US soybeans are supported by optimistic trade expectations, and meal performance is strong. Palm oil in Malaysia has not shown seasonal production cuts, and with weak export demand, the risk of a decline in oils has increased. Meal is expected to be stronger than oil in the short term [3]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the total scale of gold ETFs decreasing by 2.91% and the total trading volume decreasing by 4.22% [33]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy and chemical ETF had a weekly return of - 0.83%, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a 2.22% return, the non - ferrous metals futures ETF had a 0.20% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a - 0.12% return. The total scale of commodity ETFs decreased by 1.83%, and the total trading volume decreased by 6.43% [33]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market adjustments were primarily driven by expectations of secondary tariffs due to U.S. sanctions on Russia, alongside a strong performance in major A-share stocks, particularly in the banking and resource sectors [1][5]. Market Performance - On August 4, the A50 index experienced a sharp rise, with significant contributions from major banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, which rose over 2%, and other banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Qingdao Bank also showing gains [1][3]. - The performance of the bond market was notably strong, influenced by a new tax policy on bond interest income announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, which led to a wave of buying in existing bonds [1][5]. Economic Factors - The market's previous adjustments were linked to ongoing tariff issues and the U.S. sanctions on Russia, which have created uncertainty in trade relations [4][5]. - The U.S. dollar index saw fluctuations, with a significant drop following disappointing U.S. employment data, which positively impacted cyclical assets [4][5]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market may experience a period of volatility in early August due to earnings disclosures, with potential adjustments in stocks that have seen significant gains [7][8]. - There is an expectation that the market will transition from a phase of profit-taking to a focus on growth potential, with the possibility of new highs later in August as earnings reports confirm improvements in free cash flow for listed companies [8].