中泰证券认为，往后看指数震荡偏强，春季行情可期。春季行情可期，且更可能围绕景气产业点状演 绎。当前宏观环境仍处边际修复阶段，金融环境中性偏松，而科技产业趋势持续强化。基于"弱经济、 强产业"的历史范式，我们认为本轮春季行情更倾向围绕具备高景气度的优势产业展开结构性机会。 港股科技ETF天弘（159128）紧密跟踪港股通科技指数，成分股均属于沪深港通标的，不受QDII额度的 限制，可T+0交易，该ETF还配备了场外基金联接A（024885）联接C（024886）。 消息面上，MiniMax港股IPO申购正式收官。根据券商数据，MiniMax此次IPO孖展金额最终录得超2533 亿港元，公开发售部分超额认购倍数高达1209倍，将于1月9日正式登陆港股资本市场。 昨日（1月6日），港股市场震荡上涨，截至收盘，国证港股通科技指数涨0.76%收获三连阳，成分股 中，商汤-W涨近6%，零跑汽车、京东健康、同程旅行、小鹏汽车-W等股领涨。 相关ETF中，截至昨日收盘，港股科技ETF天弘（159128）成交额近4300万元。资金流向上，Wind金 融终端数据显示，该ETF近期持续获资金布局，截至1月5日，近20日累计"吸金" ...

上周A股市场整体呈现震荡调整格局，主要宽基指数涨跌分化，市场结构性特征显著。其中，科技应用 有所走强，石油石化连续两周大涨，商业行业继续推升军工板块热度，但新能源行业回调。 行业方面，石油石化、军工（商业航天）、传媒计算机（AI应用与数字人民币）、机械设备（机器 人）行业等领涨，公用事业、电力设备等转跌。 宏观分析：国内12月PMI逆季节性回升，预期改善 国内方面，制造业PMI逆季节性回升，企业预期明显改善。统计数据显示，2025年12月份，制造业PMI 为50.1%，比11月上升0.9个百分点，自4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。在调查的21个行业中有16个行业 PMI较11月出现回升。 主要原因在于：一是贸易环境持续优化，外需订单回补成为主要驱动力；二是国内政策加大逆周期和跨 周期调节力度；三是能源保供和部分行业复产也推动了PMI的改善，服务业和建筑业景气度上升，供需 修复带动12月PMI反弹。我们认为，政策支持下，短期内内需有望持续改善，但需关注价格波动风险。 政策面来看，宏观政策更加积极有为，节奏有望靠前发力。具体来看，第一，财政部提前下达2026年新 增地方政府债务限额。第二，发改委组织下达2026年提前 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment last week, with significant divergence among major indices and notable structural characteristics in the market [1] - Technology applications strengthened, while the oil and petrochemical sectors saw consecutive weeks of gains; the commercial sector continued to boost the military industry, but the new energy sector faced a pullback [1] Macro Analysis - In December, the domestic manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal rebound, rising to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first time since April that it entered the expansion zone [2] - Among 21 surveyed industries, 16 reported a PMI increase compared to November, driven by improved trade conditions, increased external demand, and domestic policy adjustments [2] - Key macro policies include early issuance of local government debt limits for 2026 and a total of approximately 295 billion yuan allocated for early construction projects, aimed at accelerating fund disbursement [2] Overseas Economic Data - Recent U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, with pending home sales in November rising by 3.3%, significantly above the anticipated 0.9% [3] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 199,000, compared to the expected 218,000 [3] - The December FOMC meeting minutes indicated a hawkish tone, with most participants supporting potential rate cuts if inflation trends downward, while also acknowledging risks of rising inflation [3] Investment Strategy - The company is optimistic about technology growth, non-bank financials, and cyclical assets as the Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and surpass significant thresholds in 2026 [4] - Factors supporting this outlook include anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts, continued inflow of incremental capital, and policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4] - The focus is on sectors benefiting from AI and emerging market industrialization trends, as well as cyclical valuation opportunities under domestic demand expansion [4] Sector-Specific Insights - In the technology growth sector, there is potential in domestic internet, electronics, media, and computing, particularly with the ongoing chip technology breakthroughs and storage price increases [5] - Non-bank financials are expected to benefit from increased wealth management demand and capital market reforms, with a focus on insurance and brokerage sectors [5] - Cyclical sectors are showing marginal improvements in valuation and are likely to benefit from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, including tourism, hospitality, and commodities [6]

1月5日上午，A股三大指数集体上涨，其中沪指上涨0.93%。截止10:41，中证1000ETF（159845）上涨1.37%。其他宽基指数 中，上证50涨1.78%，沪深300涨1.50%，中证500涨2.01%。 | 3.165 量159万 换1.00% 振1.21% 额5.05亿 2025/07/31-2026/01/05(105日) | | | | +0.043 +1.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 0:41:51 交易中 融 △ ○ + | | 3.178-> | 3.170 | 净值走势 | | 华夏中证1000ETF | | | | 委比 | -13.67% 委差 | -34126 | | | | 卖五 | 3.180 | 10925 | | 3.080 | | 卖网 | 3.179 | 13823 | | | | 率三 | 3.178 | 39616 | | | | | 3.177 | 37596 | | 2.990 | | | 3.176 | 39912 | | | | | 3.175 | 7976 | | | | 二三三 | 3 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the impact of tariffs and market strategies for the fourth quarter of 2025 - Discussion on the strategic value of China's rare earth resources Core Points and Arguments Market Conditions and Strategies - Short-term market volatility is heavily influenced by sentiment, with technical support levels being more critical than fundamentals [1][2] - Investors who have reduced positions may consider selectively buying quality structural assets, while those who have not should avoid hasty adjustments based on emotional market fluctuations [1][2] - The U.S.-China tariff negotiations may see short-term progress, but long-term uncertainties are increasing, with high tariffs being detrimental to both sides [1][2][3] - The current market liquidity is abundant, leading to a pursuit of scarce returns, which has resulted in localized inflation [1][5] Asset Performance and Allocation - In Q4, the focus for asset allocation is on gold, dividends, and growth assets, which have all seen a rise this year, breaking traditional asset pricing logic [1][4] - The performance of these asset classes is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, global decoupling, and central bank gold purchases [1][4] - The U.S. market shows a disparity between strong growth in the tech sector and weakness in other areas, exacerbated by the acceleration of AI investments [1][6] Credit Cycle and Economic Outlook - The applicability of the Merrill Lynch clock framework in China is limited due to significant policy expectations and evident disparities in economic performance [2][7] - Future asset rotation can be analyzed through the intensity of credit expansion in both government and private sectors, with a focus on indirect financing [2][8] - The credit cycles in the U.S. and China may diverge, with the U.S. potentially moving towards recovery while China may experience stagnation or slight slowdown [2][9] Export Dynamics and Trade Relations - China's exports have exceeded expectations, with a year-to-date growth rate of 6.1% in dollar terms, despite a nearly 20% decline in exports to the U.S. [2][12][14] - The structure of China's exports is changing, with an increasing proportion of intermediate goods, which are essential for industrial production [2][12][13] - The strategic value of rare earth resources is highlighted, with China holding a dominant position in both reserves and the entire supply chain [2][21][22] Rare Earth Resources and Strategic Implications - China's rare earth resources account for 34% of global reserves, with a significant share in heavy rare earths [2][21] - Recent export control measures have enhanced China's control over rare earth resources, impacting global supply chains and U.S. companies [2][22] - The demand for high-performance permanent magnet materials is expected to grow, with a projected annual increase of over 10% in the coming years [2][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The current geopolitical landscape and the restructuring of the global dollar monetary system are influencing asset performance and investment strategies [1][4] - The potential for localized inflation due to abundant liquidity and the pursuit of scarce returns is a critical factor for investors to consider [1][5] - The implications of U.S.-China trade relations on agricultural commodities, particularly soybeans, are significant, with price pressures observed due to tariffs [2][17][19]

Investment Rating - The report suggests prioritizing investments in gold and silver due to their strong financial attributes, followed by copper and aluminum which have strong demand attributes [1][8]. Core Insights - The current economic environment, characterized by increased expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S., favors metals with strong financial properties like gold and silver, while demand-driven metals like copper and aluminum are secondary choices [1][8]. - Gold's price is primarily influenced by its financial attributes rather than supply and demand, with significant price increases driven by geopolitical factors and central bank purchases [6][11]. - Lithium has transitioned from a strategic minor metal to an industrial metal due to the surge in demand from the electric vehicle sector, presenting short-selling opportunities post-2022 [9][10]. - Strategic minor metals such as rare earths and tungsten are highly sensitive to policy changes and international political dynamics, leading to significant price volatility [3][4]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The "3% rule" in the commodity market indicates that a supply gap of 3% can lead to significant price increases, as seen in the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries [17][18]. - Copper is entering a super cycle driven by new demands from AI, re-industrialization in the West, and safety stockpiling due to supply chain disruptions [19]. Financial and Policy Attributes - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the interplay between supply, demand, and monetary policies in shaping investment strategies in the metals market [12][15]. - In times of economic downturn, monetary and fiscal policies stimulate inventory replenishment, leading to market rotations favoring gold, silver, copper, and aluminum sequentially [2][16]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies short-selling carbonated lithium as a notable investment opportunity, highlighting the role of futures markets in risk management and price discovery [10]. - The increasing purchases of physical gold by businesses and central banks, driven by a shift towards financial security, have led to unprecedented increases in gold prices [11].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in "export grabbing" to the US and improvement in exports to emerging markets may be due to expectations of transshipment and recovery in domestic demand [3][10][62] Group 1: Export Trends - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 5.8% [2][9][62] - Exports to the US fell by 21.6%, a decline of 5.6 percentage points, while exports to Latin America and Africa rose significantly [3][10][62] - The export growth to emerging markets, such as Africa (+42.5%) and Latin America (+7.8%), indicates a shift in trade dynamics [3][10][62] Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Changes - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" to the US has declined, particularly in consumer electronics and toys, suggesting a reduction in demand from the US [3][18][62] - The announcement of a 40% tariff on transshipment goods by the US has led to increased demand from ASEAN and Latin American companies for imports from China [4][26][63] - The industrialization of emerging markets, particularly in Africa, has increased the demand for Chinese production materials, contributing to overall export growth [4][29][63] Group 3: Future Outlook - The implementation of the "reciprocal tariff 2.0" may create uncertainty for exports in August, as the necessity for "export grabbing" to emerging markets diminishes [5][32][64] - Despite the decline in port throughput, the high level of processing trade imports in July suggests that the drop in exports may be relatively controllable [5][32][64] Group 4: Import Trends - Imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year in July, driven by a recovery in bulk commodity imports [7][52][66] - Specific commodities such as copper (+18.0%), soybeans (+18.4%), and crude oil (+11.5%) showed significant increases, reflecting a rebound in domestic investment demand [7][53][66]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing complexity of investment decisions in the volatile financial markets of 2025, necessitating advanced analytical tools like Macro Global Markets for effective navigation through data [1] Market Trends and Analysis - The Macro Global Markets tool features a global policy simulator that captures the impact of central bank policy changes across 132 economies, breaking down the effects of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve into three phases: currency transmission (48 hours), bond market response (72 hours), and stock valuation restructuring (120 hours) [2] - The tool's "manufacturing GPS" capability utilizes 23 alternative data types, such as global port throughput and industrial electricity consumption, to predict manufacturing trends in emerging markets, with a lead time of 6-8 months [4] Strategic Insights - The "correlation matrix" function in the tool identifies hidden relationships in cross-market arbitrage, such as the correlation between the Brazilian real and the Norwegian krone rising from 0.32 to 0.81 when oil prices exceed $90 per barrel, aiding hedge funds in capturing arbitrage opportunities [5] - A unique three-layer defense mechanism in the "black swan warning system" scans media sentiment, analyzes shipping signal anomalies, and monitors dark web data to provide timely alternative route cost assessments when disruptions occur [5] User Guidance and Features - For new users, the "three-screen linked workstation" setup is recommended, which includes a U.S. Treasury yield curve, an industry rotation heatmap, and a commodity term structure monitor to stabilize market volatility [6] - Advanced users can activate the "Alpha Hunter" module, which integrates machine learning with fundamental analysis to generate decision trees based on specific investment themes, enhancing the precision of investment strategies [6] Practical Applications - The "data time machine" feature allows users to analyze historical events and their impacts, such as comparing the recent TSMC incident with past semiconductor disruptions to assess market implications [9] - The "volatility topography" function assists in risk management by simulating asset rebalancing paths under different interest rate scenarios, effectively controlling portfolio volatility during market fluctuations [9] - The Macro Global Markets tool is positioned as a comprehensive decision-making system that combines macro and micro perspectives, redefining market analysis in a new era of financial volatility [9]