Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. Group 2: Core Views - As the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the pricing logic of coking coal and coke returns to fundamentals. Coking coal supply continues to recover, while terminal demand remains stable with on - demand procurement. Coking enterprises' production control eases marginally, and short - term supply shows signs of convergence. Overall demand maintains resilience but lacks significant growth, and steel mills' inventory replenishment remains cautious. [4][81] - For coking coal, the weighted price of coking coal futures shows a callback during the rebound, with increasing positions and falling prices. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 1030 - 1300. Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities at the edges of this range. [4][81] - For coke, the weighted price of coke futures also shows a callback during the rebound, with decreasing positions and falling prices. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 1450 - 1800. Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities at the edges of this range. [4][81] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Interpretation Domestic Market - Multiple departments are formulating growth - stabilizing plans for ten key industries to reverse the downward trend of industrial product prices and repair corporate profit expectations. The upcoming implementation of the revised "Anti - Unfair Competition Law" and the deepening of systematic governance frameworks in key industries, along with global fiscal and monetary policy support, are expected to strengthen corporate profit repair and capital market rebound momentum. [7] - In July, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general public budget revenue turned positive to +0.1%, and tax revenue increased for four consecutive months. Government - funded revenue decline narrowed to - 0.7%, indicating short - term improvement in the land market but restricted by weak real - estate sales. The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure remained at 12.1%, with priority given to the people's livelihood sectors, while infrastructure expenditure was divided and technology expenditure decreased sharply. [7] International Market - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 22 increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Powell said the Fed is open to rate cuts due to potential downward risks to employment growth. [8] 3.2 Coking Coal Supply - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of raw coal was 2.779 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% with a declining growth rate. As of September 1, 2025, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 sample mines and the daily average output of clean coal both decreased month - on - month. Although some coal mines' coal - output rhythm was affected by policies and over - production rectification, the overall resumption of production was not significantly disrupted. [9] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal was 62.5042 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.92% but a slight month - on - month increase. Mongolia and Russia's dominance in coking coal imports strengthened, accounting for 76.74% of the total. Mongolian coal focused on inventory reduction, with a 14.01% year - on - year decrease in imports. Russian coal arrivals increased by 3.94% year - on - year. Canada and Australia are expected to see stable growth in arrivals as some domestic terminal markets signed long - term agreements with them this year. [15] Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the inventory of 523 clean coal sample mines and coking coal port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 coking coal - integrated steel enterprises increased slightly. The transfer from raw coal to clean coal was smooth, and the overall market was in an active de - stocking state. [25] 3.3 Coke Supply - From January to July 2025, the coke production was 292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.91%. As of September 1, 2025, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises and 247 integrated steel enterprises both decreased month - on - month. The average profit per ton of coke was 45 yuan. Some coking enterprises planned to increase production due to profit repair, but large - scale resumption of production was restricted by the previous sharp increase in coking coal prices. [34] Import and Export - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative export volume of coke and semi - coke was 439,860 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.92%. The decline in export volume has little impact on the domestic market. Global economic slowdown, steel production contraction in Southeast Asian countries, and intensified international steel price competition have suppressed coke export demand. [43] Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the weekly coke inventory decreased, with the inventory of independent coking enterprises remaining flat, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises remaining flat, and the port inventory decreasing slightly. Coking enterprises' inventory increased slightly, indicating restricted shipment rhythm and increased inventory pressure. Port inventory decline was related to trading rhythm and port - collection structure adjustment, with short - term circulation being sluggish. [46] 3.4 Iron Element Demand Iron Water Production and Consumption - On September 1, 2025, the profit per ton of blast - furnace steel was 33 yuan, with a slight decline. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises remained high and flat month - on - month. The consumption of five major steel products was at a low level in recent years, and the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline and was at a historical low. Steel mills' inventory increased slightly, and the inventory - replenishment rhythm slowed down, with overall procurement based on rigid demand. [56] Terminal Demand - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28,822.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.9%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 12%. The cumulative export of steel products from January to July was 67.9824 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.41%. Private investment growth decline deepened, and factors such as the real - estate market downturn and export decline suppressed private enterprises' investment ability and willingness. [64] 3.5 Basis and Term Structure - For coking coal, the basis is - 9 yuan, having rebounded from a low level. The historical basis fluctuates in the range of - 85 to +138. Pay attention to the opportunity to exit positive arbitrage when the basis rebounds to a high level. The contango structure of the term structure has steepened, and reverse arbitrage can be carried out for cross - month arbitrage. [72] - For coke, the basis is - 38 yuan, also having rebounded from a low level. The historical basis fluctuates in the range of - 132 to +55. Pay attention to the opportunity to exit positive arbitrage when the basis rebounds to a high level. The contango structure of the term structure has steepened, and month - to - month reverse arbitrage can be carried out. [72]