谈及看好的板块，她表示，可关注通胀叙事下的周期品，如有色、化工，"反内卷"夯实估值底部；可关 注出口韧性提升、涨幅相对少的行业，如机械设备、电力设备、医药；企业盈利修复之后，内需相关领 域也将出现投资机会，配合对消费政策的积极预期，行情可能轮动到消费和地产板块。 中证报中证网讯(记者魏昭宇)9月25日晚间，路博迈基金首席市场策略师朱冰倩在中国证券报"中证点金 汇"直播间表示，自去年"924"政策推出后，中国资产定价逻辑发生了较大变化，企业盈利下行风险减 少，中长期表现可期。 在投资思路方面，她表示，9月美联储降息窗口开启之后，制造业的前景或更加明朗，并且由于对利率 下行的敏感度不同，投资主线除了落脚到AI科技板块，还有可能扩散到制造业。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. Group 2: Core Views - As the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the pricing logic of coking coal and coke returns to fundamentals. Coking coal supply continues to recover, while terminal demand remains stable with on - demand procurement. Coking enterprises' production control eases marginally, and short - term supply shows signs of convergence. Overall demand maintains resilience but lacks significant growth, and steel mills' inventory replenishment remains cautious. [4][81] - For coking coal, the weighted price of coking coal futures shows a callback during the rebound, with increasing positions and falling prices. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 1030 - 1300. Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities at the edges of this range. [4][81] - For coke, the weighted price of coke futures also shows a callback during the rebound, with decreasing positions and falling prices. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 1450 - 1800. Pay attention to short - term trading opportunities at the edges of this range. [4][81] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Interpretation Domestic Market - Multiple departments are formulating growth - stabilizing plans for ten key industries to reverse the downward trend of industrial product prices and repair corporate profit expectations. The upcoming implementation of the revised "Anti - Unfair Competition Law" and the deepening of systematic governance frameworks in key industries, along with global fiscal and monetary policy support, are expected to strengthen corporate profit repair and capital market rebound momentum. [7] - In July, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general public budget revenue turned positive to +0.1%, and tax revenue increased for four consecutive months. Government - funded revenue decline narrowed to - 0.7%, indicating short - term improvement in the land market but restricted by weak real - estate sales. The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure remained at 12.1%, with priority given to the people's livelihood sectors, while infrastructure expenditure was divided and technology expenditure decreased sharply. [7] International Market - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 22 increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Powell said the Fed is open to rate cuts due to potential downward risks to employment growth. [8] 3.2 Coking Coal Supply - From January to July 2025, the cumulative production of raw coal was 2.779 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% with a declining growth rate. As of September 1, 2025, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 sample mines and the daily average output of clean coal both decreased month - on - month. Although some coal mines' coal - output rhythm was affected by policies and over - production rectification, the overall resumption of production was not significantly disrupted. [9] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of coking coal was 62.5042 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.92% but a slight month - on - month increase. Mongolia and Russia's dominance in coking coal imports strengthened, accounting for 76.74% of the total. Mongolian coal focused on inventory reduction, with a 14.01% year - on - year decrease in imports. Russian coal arrivals increased by 3.94% year - on - year. Canada and Australia are expected to see stable growth in arrivals as some domestic terminal markets signed long - term agreements with them this year. [15] Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the inventory of 523 clean coal sample mines and coking coal port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, while the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 coking coal - integrated steel enterprises increased slightly. The transfer from raw coal to clean coal was smooth, and the overall market was in an active de - stocking state. [25] 3.3 Coke Supply - From January to July 2025, the coke production was 292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.91%. As of September 1, 2025, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises and 247 integrated steel enterprises both decreased month - on - month. The average profit per ton of coke was 45 yuan. Some coking enterprises planned to increase production due to profit repair, but large - scale resumption of production was restricted by the previous sharp increase in coking coal prices. [34] Import and Export - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative export volume of coke and semi - coke was 439,860 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.92%. The decline in export volume has little impact on the domestic market. Global economic slowdown, steel production contraction in Southeast Asian countries, and intensified international steel price competition have suppressed coke export demand. [43] Inventory - As of September 1, 2025, the weekly coke inventory decreased, with the inventory of independent coking enterprises remaining flat, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises remaining flat, and the port inventory decreasing slightly. Coking enterprises' inventory increased slightly, indicating restricted shipment rhythm and increased inventory pressure. Port inventory decline was related to trading rhythm and port - collection structure adjustment, with short - term circulation being sluggish. [46] 3.4 Iron Element Demand Iron Water Production and Consumption - On September 1, 2025, the profit per ton of blast - furnace steel was 33 yuan, with a slight decline. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises remained high and flat month - on - month. The consumption of five major steel products was at a low level in recent years, and the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline and was at a historical low. Steel mills' inventory increased slightly, and the inventory - replenishment rhythm slowed down, with overall procurement based on rigid demand. [56] Terminal Demand - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28,822.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.9%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 12%. The cumulative export of steel products from January to July was 67.9824 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.41%. Private investment growth decline deepened, and factors such as the real - estate market downturn and export decline suppressed private enterprises' investment ability and willingness. [64] 3.5 Basis and Term Structure - For coking coal, the basis is - 9 yuan, having rebounded from a low level. The historical basis fluctuates in the range of - 85 to +138. Pay attention to the opportunity to exit positive arbitrage when the basis rebounds to a high level. The contango structure of the term structure has steepened, and reverse arbitrage can be carried out for cross - month arbitrage. [72] - For coke, the basis is - 38 yuan, also having rebounded from a low level. The historical basis fluctuates in the range of - 132 to +55. Pay attention to the opportunity to exit positive arbitrage when the basis rebounds to a high level. The contango structure of the term structure has steepened, and month - to - month reverse arbitrage can be carried out. [72]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed generally higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the stage high on October 8, 2024. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly for two consecutive days. The pricing stability has a restorative effect on corporate profits and investment confidence. The market's focus has shifted to the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. Some listed companies' improved fundamentals support the stock market, but be vigilant against the drag on index performance from the profit decline of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. A-shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. The S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating also boosts market confidence. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) latest price is 4131.2, up 21.0; IF sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 4144.4, up 21.4. IH main contract (2509) latest price is 2809.6, up 17.0; IH sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 2809.8, up 17.4. IC main contract (2509) latest price is 6342.6, up 33.0; IC sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6409.2, up 33.0. IM main contract (2509) latest price is 6883.6, up 21.2; IM sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6954.2, up 21.2 [2] - IF-IH current month contract spread is 1334.6, up 7.0; IC-IF current month contract spread is 2264.8, up 12.6. IM-IC current month contract spread is 545.0, down 12.4; IC-IH current month contract spread is 3599.4, up 19.6. IM-IF current month contract spread is 2809.8, up 0.2; IM-IH current month contract spread is 4144.4, up 7.2 [2] - IF current quarter - current month is -42.4, down 1.6; IF next quarter - current month is -74.8, down 3.4. IH current quarter - current month is 1.6, down 1.0; IH next quarter - current month is 1.2, down 0.8. IC current quarter - current month is -219.2, up 4.4; IC next quarter - current month is -357.6, up 4.6. IM current quarter - current month is -260.0, up 1.8; IM next quarter - current month is -442.2, up 4.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is -26,597.00, up 1315.0; IH top 20 net position is -17,108.00, up 424.0. IC top 20 net position is -15,559.00, up 1313.0; IM top 20 net position is -52,263.00, down 494.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is 4143.83, up 21.3; IF main contract basis is -12.6, up 5.1. SSE 50 is 2807.01, up 17.1; IH main contract basis is 2.6, up 3.1. CSI 500 is 6418.16, up 26.4; IC main contract basis is -75.6, up 17.4. CSI 1000 A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 6963.61, up 19.7; IM main contract basis is +552.93, up 166.82. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 20,261.98, up 12.7 [2] - Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2270.00, up 261.04; Reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) is -1607.0, up 1146.0 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) is +76.53 yesterday, -376.99 today. MLF data not provided. Rising stock ratio (daily, %) is 38.45, down 38.81. Shibor (daily, %) is 1.315, unchanged [2] - IO at-the-money call option closing price (2508) is 15.00, up 3.00; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2508) is 22.80, down 19.60; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31 [2] - CSI 300 index 20-day volatility (%) is 9.80, up 0.08; Volume PCR (%) is 57.21, up 1.86. Position PCR (%) is 76.85, up 1.74 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares score is 5.10, down 2.30; Technical aspect score is 3.80, down 3.90. Capital aspect score is 6.40, down 0.70 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, up 7.3%; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%, rising for two consecutive months [2] - In July, CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month from a 0.1% decline last month, and was flat year-on-year. Core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the same as last month [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Pending: China's July financial data. On August 12 at 20:30, the US July CPI and core CPI. On August 14 at 20:30, the US July PPI and core PPI. On August 15 at 10:00, China's July industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and real estate data [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1] - Gold: Sideways, with a bullish pattern for silver [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Sideways [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina): Sideways for alumina, cautious and bearish short - term, long - term bullish for aluminum [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Sideways [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [6] - Silicon Energy: Sideways [6] - Steel and Ore (Threaded Steel): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Hot - Rolled Coil): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Iron Ore): Sideways pattern [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coking Coal): Sideways [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coke): Sideways [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Soda Ash): Sideways pattern [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Float Glass): Sideways pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Sideways [9] - Methanol: Bullish [9] - Polyolefins: Sideways [9] - Cotton: Sideways and bullish [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall upward trend of the stock index is clear, and there are opportunities to go long on dips; the bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market, with reduced upward pressure but high uncertainty [1] - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and silver has strong support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] - The copper market is affected by the US copper tariff policy, with high uncertainty and a sideways pattern [4] - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern; aluminum has clear supply constraints and a relatively stable long - term bullish strategy [4] - Nickel lacks directional drivers and is in a sideways pattern, and the short - call option position can be held [4] - The long - term logic of "anti - involution" in the steel and ore market remains valid, but short - term factors are differentiated. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [6][7] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation. It is recommended to hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, with a risk premium increase and a sideways pattern [9] - Methanol has price support, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] - Polyolefins have a low basis, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [9] - Cotton prices may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range before September - October [9] - Rubber is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with a sideways price trend [9] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the ChiNext remaining strong and the trading volume slightly decreasing. The stock index futures were in a high - level consolidation, and the discount of IC and IM widened again [1] - The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market cooled down, and the market returned to a state of rapid sector rotation. The macro - level is affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the fundamental long - term logic of corporate profit repair remains unchanged. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded across the board, and the upward pressure on the bond market decreased. The central bank made large - scale net injections, and the liquidity was abundant. The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market in the short - term, with high uncertainty [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, lacking short - term drivers. If it pulls back to the lower edge of the operating range since June, short - term long positions can be considered. The gold - silver ratio continues to converge, and silver has strong price support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market is mainly affected by the US copper tariff policy. The medium - long - term supply of the mining end is tight, and the short - term import demand depends on policies. The market has high uncertainty and is in a sideways pattern [4] Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern. The short - term demand for aluminum is cautious, but the supply constraints are clear, and the long - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel has a tight situation in Indonesia's mines and abundant production capacity of nickel iron and intermediate products. The demand is in the off - season. The market "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the nickel price lacks directional drivers, remaining in a sideways pattern. The short - call option position can be held [4] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The exchange adjusted the handling fee and daily opening limit, and the long - position sentiment in the lithium carbonate futures market weakened. The supply pattern has limited improvement, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the mining license approval results of key mines in Jiangxi in early August [6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has limited new orders for polysilicon, and downstream procurement is cautious. The industrial silicon market is mainly driven by polysilicon in the early stage, and the fundamental situation has not improved substantially, with the bullish sentiment fading [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore Threaded Steel - The spot price of threaded steel continued to decline, and the basis strengthened significantly. The regulatory tightening cooled the market, and the short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the short - put option position [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to decline, and the basis also strengthened significantly. The short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has support, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively stable, and the long - term price is under pressure. The 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be patiently held, and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore in the 01 contract can be grasped after the sentiment stabilizes [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The exchange upgraded risk - control measures, and the coking coal futures price fell sharply. The supply tightening expectation exists, and the fundamentals support the price, but short - term unilateral participation requires caution [7] Coke - The coke spot market is bullish, but the futures price is affected by the decline of coking coal and shows a sideways decline [7] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the demand is affected by "anti - involution". The inventory decreased recently, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] Float Glass - The glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] 3.10 Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors have become the short - term focus of the market, and the risk premium has increased. The OPEC+ may increase production in September. The demand - side support has weakened, and the market is in a sideways pattern [9] 3.11 Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is expected to increase, and the start - up rate of northwest coal - chemical plants is expected to rise. The futures price is higher than the spot price, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] 3.12 Polyolefins - The basis of polyolefins is low, and the futures may pull back. In August, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the futures will continue to fluctuate [9] 3.13 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is tight, and the demand is relatively stable. There is a possibility of additional quotas. Before September - October, the cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range [9] 3.14 Rubber - The port inventory of rubber is increasing again, and the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the production increase rate in Southeast Asian producing areas [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of the Jiashi New Energy Materials Stock A fund, indicating a profit of 4.7057 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 0.46% and a total fund size of 2.059 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [2][15]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the fund's one-year cumulative net value growth rate is 33.18%, ranking 7th out of 44 comparable funds [3]. - The fund's three-month net value growth rate is 8.86%, ranking 34th out of 44 comparable funds, and the six-month growth rate is 6.97%, ranking 22nd out of 44 [3]. - Over the past three years, the fund has experienced a net value growth rate of -44.60%, ranking 21st out of 31 comparable funds [3]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is -0.3224, ranking 18th out of 31 comparable funds [8]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 63.37%, ranking 3rd out of 31 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q3 2022 at 24.88% [10]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicates that corporate profit recovery is similar to historical cycles, suggesting potential for exceeding expectations in various industries due to suppressed capital expenditures [2]. - The fund has maintained a high average stock position of 91.71% over the past three years, with a peak of 94.62% at the end of 2023 [13]. - The fund's investment focus is on sectors related to new energy lithium batteries and intelligent driving, adjusting the portfolio dynamically based on market fluctuations [2]. Holdings Concentration - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten stocks including Ningde Times, Putailai, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, indicating a stable selection of investment targets [18].