今天市场继续下跌，很多人开始对着账户垂头丧气了，说实在的，没啥必要——开篇，我们先抛开短期的阴霾， 聊点中长期视角的东西吧 ，以 下内容，首发在今天的知识星球中，我觉得具有一定的普适性，因此，凝练之后，分享给大家。 下图，数据源，来自于保险业协会近期发布的，保险机构的26年资产配置展望， 收集了36家保险资管机构，和91家保险公司的调查结果 ，算是 核心的买方观点了—— 据我所知，这也应该是行业首次采取这个形式，所以含金量算是很足的 。 本篇，可以和此前12月底写的这篇，《 解读保险大佬们的26年展望 》，一起看。 从数据中抽丝剥茧，总结为以下10条。 1、10年国债看1.8-1.9%，30年国债看2.2-2.4%——从长债收益率，再看红利。 下图 ，分别是保险机构对26年内，10年国债和30年国债的点位判断，其中蓝色是保险资管机构，橙色是保险公司，我们合并在一起看个大概。 科普一下，"保险资管机构"通常是大中型保险公司下设的，因此更能代表大中型险资的观点，而很多小保险公司没有创设保险资管机构，因 此"保险公司"的观点中，中小险企的权重会更高——要详细了解这块背景的，请见2023年的老文《 聊一聊神秘的保险资 ...

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资 资产。债券方面，今年保险机构更看好高等级产业债、银行永续债及二级资本债以及可转债。多数保险 机构对2026年A股市场持较乐观态度，多数机构计划小幅增配A股。中长期看，长端利率企稳叠加资本 市场上行驱动资产端改善，存量负债成本迎来拐点，报行合一优化渠道成本，上市险企中长期利费差趋 势有望改善。 广发证券主要观点如下： 境外投资方面 港股是2026年保险机构最看好的境外投资品种，同时黄金投资和美股投资也受到保险机构较多关注。半 数保险资产管理机构计划小幅增配港股，四成保险公司计划维持现有港股配置比例。 上市险企权益弹性持续提升，中长期利费差趋势有望改善 大类资产配置方面 股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资资产，部分机构意愿适度或微幅增加股票投 资，而银行存款和债券的配置比例预计与2025年保持持平。 债券市场方面 多数保险机构对2026年债券市场整体持中性态度，整体久期策略以基本维持现有不变为主。利率债方 面，预计10年期国债收益率将处于1.8%-1.9%区间，30年期国债收益率将集中在2.2% ...

近日，中国银行保险资产管理业协会（以下简称协会）公布了2026年银行保险资产管理业资产配置展望保险机构调查结果，透露了新一年险资投资意向。 本次调查结果来自127家保险机构参与反馈，包括36家保险资产管理机构和91家保险公司。 调查结果显示，大类资产配置方面，股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资资产。多数保险机构预计对银行存款、债券、证券投资基 金及其他金融资产的配置比例与2025年基本持平，部分机构有意愿适度或微幅增加股票投资。 | | 银行存款 | 债券 | 股票 | 证券投资基金 | 耳他 | | 银行存款 | 债券 | 股票 | 证券投资基金 | 其他 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大幅增加(20%以上) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.70% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 大幅增加(20%以上) | 0.00% | 1.10% | 3.30% | 2.20% | 1.10% | | 较大幅增加(10%-20%】 | 0.00% | 0.00% ...

来源：证券时报 开年以来，多家外资公募密集发声，对中国权益市场的中期前景释放出积极信号。 在全球流动性环境趋于宽松、美元走弱预期升温的背景下，外资机构普遍认为，A股市场正迎来资金结 构与基本面共振的新阶段。一方面，养老金、保险资金等长期资金占比提升，有助于优化市场投资结 构；另一方面，居民资产配置重心出现边际转向，权益类资产吸引力正在提升。 与此同时，中国经济正在走向内生修复，企业盈利改善与产业结构升级成为中长期支撑。在此背景下， A股市场或呈现更具结构性的机会格局。 看好增量资金入市 施罗德基金副总经理安昀表示，随着2025年全球经济逐步走出疫情后的调整期，2026年权益市场正迎来 新的发展格局。从宏观经济环境、政策导向到市场结构变化，在多重因素交织下，A股市场有望呈 现"长周期、结构性牛市"特征，为投资者提供丰富的配置机会。 安昀认为，资金流向方面最值得关注的是长钱占比增加和居民资产再配置两大趋势。一方面，机构投资 者占比持续提升，养老金、保险资金等长期资金入市步伐加快，这些资金更注重价值投资和长期持有， 有助于稳定市场。 对于市场较为关注居民存款搬家，摩根资产管理也认为，这一进程有望在2026年逐步展开 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market faced pressure in Q4 2025 but showed significant strength entering 2026, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 58 billion yuan [1] - In 2025, cumulative net inflows from southbound funds reached 1.3 trillion yuan, the highest since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect programs [1] - As of January 29, 2026, the Hang Seng Index had risen by 9.12% year-to-date, ranking among the top global indices [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's fund manager noted that the valuation of core technology assets in the Hong Kong stock market has improved following a value reassessment in 2025, indicating high cost-effectiveness for investment [2] - The outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of further recovery in corporate earnings driven by macro policies and liquidity improvements [2] - The Hong Kong stock market is still considered undervalued compared to U.S. and Japanese markets, presenting significant potential for valuation recovery [2] Group 3 - HSBC Jintrust Fund anticipates a positive performance for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, supported by reduced overseas uncertainties and expected recovery in corporate earnings [3] - The overall earnings growth for the Hong Kong market is projected to achieve high single-digit growth in 2026, with the Hang Seng Technology sector potentially reaching double-digit growth [3] - The Hong Kong market demonstrates strong attractiveness in terms of both valuation and earnings growth compared to global markets [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated sector rotation, with previously strong-performing sectors like computer and new energy facing corrections, while previously lagging sectors such as liquor and real estate are performing well [2][5] - Despite external disturbances, the A-share market shows signs of a phase of adjustment, but the medium-term outlook remains positive with ample opportunities [3][4] - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday is not dampening trading activity, indicating strong market engagement and potential for further development in the spring market [2][3] Group 2 - The market may see a style switch as the spring rally progresses, with a shift from small-cap stocks to large-cap stocks and a focus on quality over speculation [5][6] - The recent performance of liquor and real estate sectors suggests a convergence in market structure as the spring rally enters its latter half, with expectations of balanced upward trends [5][6] - Long-term prospects for the metals sector remain positive due to anticipated demand from AI data centers and renewable energy, despite short-term corrections providing better entry points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant inflow of funds into Hong Kong's technology sector through cross-border ETFs, indicating a growing interest in technology-themed investments as the market rebounds in early 2026 [1][3]. Fund Inflows and Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, over 160 Hong Kong ETFs have seen a net inflow of 28.389 billion yuan, with approximately 90% of this capital directed towards technology-themed products such as the Hong Kong Internet ETF and the Hang Seng Technology ETF [1][3][4]. - The total scale of Hong Kong ETFs has approached 800 billion yuan, marking an increase of nearly 79 billion yuan since the end of 2025, representing an 11% growth [6]. Product Development - At least 28 new Hong Kong-themed funds have been reported by public fund managers since the start of 2026, focusing primarily on technology, healthcare, and consumer sectors, with technology funds being the most prominent [1][8][9]. - The top 10 funds attracting significant capital include several technology ETFs, with inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan for products like the GF Hong Kong Non-Bank ETF and the FT Hong Kong Internet ETF [4][5]. Fund Performance - Most Hong Kong ETFs have recorded positive returns since the beginning of 2026, with several funds in the healthcare and non-bank sectors achieving returns over 10% [5][6]. - The performance of technology-themed ETFs has been particularly strong, with the Hong Kong Internet ETF and the Hang Seng Technology ETF yielding returns of approximately 8.9% and 8%, respectively [5]. Long-term Investment Outlook - The article emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the technology sector in Hong Kong, driven by global capital and talent influx, as well as favorable trends in artificial intelligence and innovation [10][11]. - The article also notes the potential for investment in upstream resources and companies expanding internationally, indicating a broader strategy for capital allocation in the Hong Kong market [10].

Group 1: Dividend Strategy Outlook for 2026 - The dividend strategy in 2025 significantly underperformed the market, primarily due to the emergence of new growth sectors like AI, which shifted market focus from dividend yield (d) to growth rate (g) from 2022 to mid-2024[2] - For 2026, the core judgment on whether dividend strategies can achieve excess returns hinges on whether the market continues to prioritize marginal changes in fundamentals[2] - With a low macro risk environment for AI investments and a recovery in corporate earnings expected, the focus may remain on growth rates rather than dividend yields, making excess returns from dividend strategies unlikely[2] Group 2: A-Shares vs. Hong Kong Stocks - Since April 2024, Hong Kong's low-volatility dividend index has outperformed A-shares by 49%, driven mainly by the industrial, financial, and energy sectors[3] - Despite the higher dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks, the PE valuation levels are now comparable to A-shares, indicating limited room for further convergence[3] - The relative performance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed more to stock selection rather than industry allocation, with financials, energy, and industrials contributing the most to excess returns[3] Group 3: Constructing the 2026 Dividend Portfolio - The 2026 dividend strategy should focus on sectors benefiting from AI investment, manufacturing recovery, and domestic consumption recovery, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors expected to have the broadest benefits[3] - A scoring system combining payout ratios and stability with profitability metrics (ROE) is proposed to optimize sector allocation for dividends[3] - Recommended sectors for increased allocation include insurance, textile manufacturing, and logistics, while sectors with high potential but lower success rates, like banks and construction, should be considered for long-term investment[3]

Core Viewpoint - Several leading lithium iron phosphate (LFP) companies have announced production halts for maintenance, coinciding with a surge in downstream demand for lithium batteries, particularly in energy storage applications [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Announcements - Deyang Nano (德方纳米) plans to conduct annual equipment maintenance starting January 1, 2026, for one month, which will involve technical upgrades to optimize production [1]. - Hunan Youneng (湖南裕能) will also perform maintenance on some production lines from January 1, 2026, expected to reduce LFP output by 15,000 to 35,000 tons [2]. - Wanrun New Energy (万润新能) has been operating its LFP production lines at overcapacity since Q4 2025 and will reduce production starting December 28, 2025, with an expected decrease of 5,000 to 20,000 tons [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The three companies are among the top producers in the LFP sector, with Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, and Deyang Nano ranking first, second, and fourth in market share, respectively [2]. - As of June 2025, Hunan Youneng's LFP production capacity reached 858,000 tons, Wanrun New Energy's capacity was 468,000 tons, and Deyang Nano's capacity was 370,000 tons [3]. Group 3: Demand and Pricing Dynamics - The demand for lithium batteries is experiencing explosive growth, particularly in energy storage, with Q3 2025 shipments reaching 165 GWh, a 65% year-on-year increase [3]. - Hunan Youneng reported a net profit of 645 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 31.51% increase year-on-year, with Q3 profit soaring by 235.31% [4]. - The recent production halts are seen as a strategy to strengthen pricing power amid rising costs and ongoing negotiations for price increases with downstream clients [5][8]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The LFP market has shifted from supply shortages to oversupply, leading to intense price competition and significant price declines, with LFP prices dropping from 173,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022 to 34,000 yuan per ton by August 2025, an 80.2% decrease [6]. - The industry has faced continuous losses for over 36 months, with an average debt-to-asset ratio of 67.81% among six listed companies, and only 16.7% of companies are profitable [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is signaling a strong desire to restore profitability and improve operational conditions, with maintenance actions reflecting a collective effort to enhance bargaining power and achieve reasonable profit margins [7][11]. - The recent rise in lithium carbonate prices, which reached 120,400 yuan per ton, is providing cost support for LFP producers and increasing their inclination to raise prices [8][9]. - The ongoing maintenance and production adjustments are not expected to significantly impact the companies' 2026 performance, as the overall reduction in output is relatively small [11].

Group 1 - The overall sentiment towards equity assets is optimistic among institutions [1] - The risk premium of the CSI 300 index remains above one standard deviation, indicating attractive risk compensation compared to the declining risk-free interest rates [1] - Continued macro liquidity support is favorable, with a mild expansion expected in the credit cycles of major global economies, creating a conducive environment for equities and commodities [1] Group 2 - Domestic demand policies are continuously strengthening, while external demand shows signs of stabilization, which may further support corporate profit recovery [1]