本文原载于《证券时报》2026年2月12日头版 责编：叶舒筠 校对：王锦程 为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中 很大规模资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金 配置的主要诉求是保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需求量大，这些产品相应的底层资 产会更多配置存单、利率债等安全性高的债权类资产。不过，资管产品新增资产主要集中于同业存款或 存单，也反映出资管机构的投资策略高度趋同，可投资产种类有限。 未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类 资管产品之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更 丰富的资产类别供投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这 离不开一个重要的"吸引力前提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢 慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康 稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业良性竞争生态 ...

为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其 中很大规模资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对 资金配置的主要诉求是保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需求量大，这些产品相应的 底层资产会更多配置存单、利率债等安全性高的债权类资产。不过，资管产品新增资产主要集中于同 业存款或存单，也反映出资管机构的投资策略高度趋同，可投资产种类有限。 未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收 类资管产品之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需 要更丰富的资产类别供投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋 势，但这离不开一个重要的"吸引力前提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到 钱，才能慢慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进 资本市场健康稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业良性竞争生态的关键一环。 央行近日首次在货币政策报告中以专栏形式探讨存款变动对流动性总量 ...

为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中 很大规模资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金 配置的主要诉求是保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需求量大，这些产品相应的底层资 产会更多配置存单、利率债等安全性高的债权类资产。不过，资管产品新增资产主要集中于同业存款或 存单，也反映出资管机构的投资策略高度趋同，可投资产种类有限。 未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类 资管产品之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更 丰富的资产类别供投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这 离不开一个重要的"吸引力前提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢 慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康 稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业良性竞争生态的关键一环。 责任编辑：王馨茹 证券时报记者 孙璐璐 央行近日首次在货币政策 ...

未来一段时间，我国的利率水平仍将保持低位运行。短期看，居民企业的金融资产配置在存款与固收类资管产品 之间切换还是主流。长远看，居民企业积累的庞大存量财富和持续产生的新增财富迫切需要更丰富的资产类别供 投资选择，有序引导更多资金配置从债权类资产向股权类资产转移将是大趋势，但这离不开一个重要的"吸引力前 提"：资本市场不能大起大落，要让更多的普通投资者真正赚到钱，才能慢慢改变广大投资者的投资风险偏好。因 此，建立增强资本市场内在稳定性长效机制，促进资本市场健康稳定发展，不仅是稳市之基，更是打造资管行业 良性竞争生态的关键一环。 早在1月中旬举行的国新办新闻发布会上，央行公布的一组数据就能看出存款腾挪背后的流向趋势：2025年资管产 品募集自住户和非金融企业的资金分别增加4万亿元和1万亿元，资管产品底层资产中，存款和存单新增4.6万亿 元，占资管各类新增底层资产的五成。 为了寻求比存款利率更高的投资收益，住户和非金融企业的存款表面上是"搬家"到了资管产品，但其中很大规模 资金又以非银行金融机构存款的形式回流银行表内负债端。这是因为大部分居民和企业对资金配置的主要诉求是 保值，追求安全稳健的收益，对固收类资管产品的需 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market to prevent significant fluctuations and align with the strategic deployment of building a financial powerhouse in China [1] - The recent International Investor Conference highlighted the need for comprehensive financial regulation, improved institutional mechanisms, and enhanced regulatory capabilities to ensure stable market operations [1] - The capital market in China has shown significant progress, with expanding market size, active product innovation, and improved returns for listed companies, while also steadily advancing in terms of openness [1] Group 2 - A long-term, collaborative institutional framework is essential for enhancing capital market stability, focusing on solid foundational systems, guiding long-term capital into the market, and strengthening regulatory enforcement [2] - The quality and effectiveness of information disclosure are critical for stable market operations, evolving towards a combination of simplified and detailed disclosures to provide relevant and readable information [2] - The regulatory focus is on promoting long-term capital to mitigate short-term speculative activities, with policies aimed at increasing the scale of equity capital from social security and insurance [2] Group 3 - The stability of the market relies on the improvement and effective execution of regulatory systems, with ongoing optimization of the top-level design of capital market regulation since the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - Despite the introduction of stringent regulatory policies, there is a need to enhance the comprehensive accountability system across civil, administrative, and criminal aspects [3] - Strengthening information disclosure to enhance market transparency and maintaining a high-pressure stance against illegal activities are crucial for preventing significant market fluctuations [3]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - **Crude Oil**: The main contract of US crude oil closed down 4.19% at $58.48 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 3.74% to $62.72 per barrel [5]. - **Precious Metals**: International precious metal futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.90% to $53.23 per ounce [6]. - **Base Metals in London**: Most London base metals rose. LME tin rose 2.15% to $37405.00 per ton, LME lead rose 1.38% to $2092.00 per ton, LME copper rose 0.65% to $10897.00 per ton, LME aluminum rose 0.40% to $2886.00 per ton, LME zinc rose 0.18% to $3072.00 per ton, and LME nickel fell 0.29% to $15010.00 per ton [6]. - **Domestic Futures**: As of the close at 23:00 on November 12, domestic futures main contracts mostly fell. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell more than 3%, fuel oil fell more than 2%, caustic soda and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell more than 1%. In terms of gains, pure benzene rose more than 1%, and styrene (EB) rose nearly 1% [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - **Russia-Ukraine Negotiations**: Russia is ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, according to a Russian diplomat [9]. - **Photovoltaic Rumor**: Jingao Technology clarified that the rumor about the "collapse of the storage platform" is false, and the company is not involved in the platform [9]. - **Fed's Interest Rate**: Nomura Securities expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in December, as recent indicators show the resilience of the US job market [9]. - **New Energy Policy**: The National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting the integrated development of new energy, including multi - field development and infrastructure construction [10]. - **Capital Market**: China Securities Regulatory Commission official said to improve the long - term investment environment and enhance the stability of the capital market [10]. - **Mining Rights**: Ningde Times may need to pay 177 million yuan for mining rights in Jiangxi [12]. - **Hamas - Israel Ceasefire**: Hamas said the previous ceasefire agreement with Israel was a "preliminary agreement" [12]. - **Fed's Divergence**: There are internal differences within the Fed, which casts a shadow over the path of interest rate cuts [13]. - **US Economic Data**: Due to the government shutdown, key economic reports in October may not be released [14]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **LNG Supply**: Russia's LNG supply to Spain dropped significantly in October, ranking fifth [16]. - **Oil Inventory in UAE**: As of the week of November 12, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah Port, UAE increased, with different changes in different fractions [16]. - **Energy Demand Forecast**: The IEA said global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050 [16]. - **Japanese Oil Inventory**: Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased in the week of November 8. The refinery's average operating rate decreased [18]. - **US Oil Drilling**: The Trump administration plans to open the California coast for oil drilling, which has been condemned [18]. - **China's Chemical Inventory**: As of November 12, China's butadiene - styrene rubber inventory increased, asphalt refinery capacity utilization decreased, and methanol port inventory increased [19]. - **Malaysian Rubber**: Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 14.8% in September compared to August [20]. - **OPEC Forecast**: OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, and its production decreased in October [20]. - **EIA Forecast**: EIA slightly adjusted its crude oil price forecast for 2025 [20]. Metal Futures - **Silver Company's Maintenance**: Hunan Baoshan Non - ferrous Metal Mining Co., Ltd. will conduct a 20 - day maintenance from November 11, which will not affect the annual production plan [23]. - **Copper Price Forecast**: Citi expects copper prices to rise in 2026 [24]. - **Copper Rod Production**: China's recycled copper rod production decreased in October [24]. - **Platinum Conference**: The 2025 China Platinum Group Metals Market Annual Conference will be held in Hainan in December [24]. Black - Series Futures - **Building Materials and Hot - Rolled Coils**: As of the week of November 12, the production and inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils in China changed. Building material production and inventory decreased, while hot - rolled coil production increased and inventory decreased [26]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: The auction prices of coking coal in Linfen fluctuated on November 12, with a 14.5% non - successful bid rate [26]. - **Pollution Response**: Handan launched a level - II emergency response to heavy pollution weather [28]. - **Iron Ore Project**: The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea was officially put into production, with a total investment of over $20 billion [28]. Agricultural Futures - **Palm Oil Export**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 49.53% compared to the same period last month [30]. - **Palm Oil Production**: Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production is expected to reach a record 20 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year [31]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: Argentine farmers' soybean sales in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons continued, with different purchase volumes from local oil mills and export industries [31]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased slightly on November 12, and the average pork price decreased by 1.2% [31]. 3. Financial Market Finance - **Stock Market Conference**: At the Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference, officials said to reform the capital market, optimize the structure of listed companies, and attract foreign investment. Foreign investors' holdings of A - shares have increased [34]. - **A - Share Market**: A - shares fluctuated. The photovoltaic industry chain declined, while bank and insurance sectors strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, and the trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan [35]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.85% to 26922.73 points. Southbound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$43 billion [35]. - **Stock Ratings**: Since the end of October, brokers have adjusted the ratings of A - share stocks, with 23 upgrades and 40 downgrades [37]. - **Fund Issuance**: The number of newly issued funds this year reached a three - year high, with a trend of "strong equity, weak bond" [37]. - **Company Earnings**: Hon Hai's Q3 revenue met expectations, and its net profit increased by 30% quarter - on - quarter. The company expects AI server revenue to surge in Q4 and will disclose cooperation with OpenAI [38]. Industry - **Automobile Standard**: The Ministry of Public Security solicited opinions on the national standard for motor vehicle safety, including speed - limit requirements and battery safety for new energy vehicles [39]. - **Drug Procurement**: The 11th batch of national drug procurement results were announced, covering 55 drugs [39]. - **Industrial Projects**: The market and industry regulators launched "ten key projects" to support new productive forces, and the World Power Battery Conference had 180 signed projects worth 86.13 billion yuan [41]. - **New Energy Vehicle Factory**: China's first electric vertical take - off and landing vehicle factory with a "tens of thousands - level" production capacity has entered the trial - production stage [42]. - **Storage Market**: After the sharp rise in NAND flash memory prices, some storage manufacturers plan to raise prices [42]. Overseas - **US Government Shutdown**: The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, which may end the government shutdown [43]. - **US Tariffs**: The US Treasury Secretary said the government will announce "substantial" tariff news and may provide tax rebates to low - income families [45]. - **Fed's Chair Candidate**: A candidate for the Fed chair position hopes for a larger interest rate cut in December [45]. - **Fed's Divergence**: Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [45]. - **Japan's Economy**: Japan plans to increase spending to support its economy [45]. - **French Economy**: The French central bank may raise GDP growth forecasts [46]. - **Indian CPI**: India's October CPI rose 0.25% year - on - year, lower than expected [47]. International Stock Markets - **US Stock Market**: US stocks closed mixed. The Dow rose 0.68%, the S&P 500 rose 0.06%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.26%. Most Chinese concept stocks fell [48]. - **European Stock Market**: European stocks rose across the board, driven by the easing of the US government shutdown risk and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [50]. - **Stock Market Outlook**: Goldman Sachs said the high valuation of US stocks will limit future returns, while emerging markets may have higher returns [50]. - **Company Plans**: Luckin Coffee is planning to return to the US stock market, and Korean investors' holdings of US stocks reached a record high [51]. - **Indian Market Reform**: The Indian Securities and Exchange Board plans reforms to attract foreign investors [52]. Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell due to OPEC's demand forecast cut, increased US API crude oil inventory, and concerns about supply surplus [53]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metal prices rose as investors turned to safe - haven assets because of the approaching end of the US government shutdown and geopolitical risks [52]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals rose [55]. - **Energy Forecasts**: EIA adjusted its crude oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026. The IEA said global oil and gas demand may grow until 2050, and OPEC expects the oil market to balance in 2026 [55][56]. - **Iron Ore Project**: The Simandou iron ore project was put into production, with large reserves and high - grade iron [56]. Bonds - **Domestic Bonds**: The domestic bond market warmed up, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and bond futures rising. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations and increased liquidity [58]. - **Russian Bonds**: Russia plans to issue RMB - denominated sovereign bonds [58]. - **US Bonds**: The US Treasury Secretary said to maintain the scale of US Treasury auctions and consider increasing long - term bond issuance [58]. - **Global Bond Market**: The global bond issuance scale exceeded $6 trillion this year, and the US investment - grade bond issuance scale is close to the historical high [58]. Foreign Exchange - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Wednesday, and the central parity rate was also adjusted up [61]. - **Yen**: The Japanese finance minister warned of potential intervention as the yen approached a key level against the US dollar [61]. - **Dollar Index**: The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies had different performances [61]. 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: A series of economic data from different countries will be released, including unemployment rates, GDP, and inflation data [63]. - **Events**: There are central bank meetings, corporate earnings announcements, and industry conferences scheduled [65].

Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes strengthening strategic reserves and market stabilization mechanisms to enhance the inherent stability of the capital market [1] - The CSRC aims to prevent significant market volatility, including sharp rises and falls [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Li Ming, emphasizes the need to enhance the market ecosystem for long-term investments and to effectively implement plans for increasing medium to long-term capital inflow into the market [1] Investment Strategy - Continuous improvement of the market ecosystem for long-term investments is essential [1] - Efforts will be made to expand the scale and proportion of equity investments from social security, insurance, and annuities [1] - Reforms in public funds will be deepened to better support long-term investment [1] Market Stability - There is a focus on strengthening strategic reserves and mechanisms to stabilize the market [1] - Enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market is a priority [1] - Measures will be taken to prevent significant market fluctuations, including sharp rises and falls [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China and other departments established two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, injecting a total of 800 billion yuan in the first phase [1][3] - These tools have effectively boosted investor confidence, reduced A-share volatility, and enhanced the inherent stability of the capital market over the past year [1][5] Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The two monetary tools include stock repurchase and increase re-loans and swap facilities, which have injected thousands of billions into the market [1][4] - The swap facility has conducted two operations, totaling 105 billion yuan, expanding the number of participating institutions from 20 to 40 [1][2] - Nearly 700 listed companies have disclosed the use of repurchase loans, with a total loan ceiling exceeding 330 billion yuan [1][3] Group 2: Market Impact - The tools have provided low-cost, medium-to-long-term funding support to companies, alleviating financial pressure and expanding market liquidity [3][4] - The A-share market has shown signs of stabilization, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 17.73% over the past year and its annualized volatility decreasing by 4.62 percentage points [5][6] - The tools have played a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations and preventing excessive volatility during periods of external shocks [5][6] Group 3: Future Directions - There is a push for the normalization of these monetary tools to establish a stable balance mechanism in the capital market, enhancing investor confidence and supporting long-term healthy development [7][8] - Recommendations include expanding the coverage of the tools, optimizing policy design, and strengthening collaborative mechanisms to address long-term challenges [8][9]

Group 1 - The extension of the tariff exemption for 90 days has significantly reduced external disturbances in the market [3] - The announcement from the U.S. government was a last-minute decision, providing a buffer period for the market and demonstrating a more stable approach from President Trump regarding China [3] - This change in strategy is expected to bring notable stability to the capital market over the next two to three months, decreasing the likelihood of unexpected negative events [3] Group 2 - The excitement from new funding is driving a rotation of market hotspots, but significant opportunities still require clear signals before investment [1]