多地农商行开年"逆势加息"，部分3年期存款产品的年化利率上浮至1.75%，业内：实为短期营销，具有高门槛、限时性特征 每经记者｜刘嘉魁 每经编辑｜黄博文 2026年开年，在国有大行持续下架长期限存款产品、存款利率整体步入"1%时代"的背景下，一场由众多农村商业银行发起的"逆势加息"行动，正从广 西、贵州、陕西等多地悄然蔓延。部分农商行将1年至3年期特色存款的年化利率推高，但多数附加"20万元起存""限量发售""节后截止"等严格限制。 然而，这并非利率周期的反转信号。国家金融监督管理总局数据显示，截至2025年第三季度末，商业银行净息差已收窄至1.42%的历史低位。 一位资深银行业研究人士向《每日经济新闻》记者指出，这场看似矛盾的"加息潮"，实际是中小银行在行业性盈利困境与个体生存压力之间的精准计算： 它们以"高利率+高门槛+短期限"的组合策略，在年初"开门红"的关键窗口，发起了一场针对大额短期资金的"精准狙击"。在他看来，这揭示了不同体量银 行在负债端日益白热化的竞争，以及其截然不同的生存策略。 利率"双轨"运行：高门槛特色存款背后的揽储逻辑 2026年开年，存款市场的"温度差"极为显著。一方面，大型银行继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to maintain a steady credit growth throughout the year, with corporate loans being a significant support for the "opening red" of credit in January, which is seen as a barometer for financial support to the real economy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Credit Growth and Corporate Loans - In December 2025, new RMB loans increased by 910 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan, while the balance growth rate reached 6.4% [1]. - Corporate loans are anticipated to continue supporting credit growth, with an expected increase in social financing of approximately 5.5 trillion to 5.6 trillion yuan in January 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 300 billion yuan [2]. - Analysts predict that corporate loans will perform slightly better than the previous year due to factors such as a later Spring Festival, increased working days, and a robust project reserve [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Margins - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies, including a 25 basis point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, which is expected to enhance banks' willingness to lend in key areas [4]. - Despite ongoing pressure on interest margins due to potential rate cuts, the optimization of funding costs is expected to support a narrowing of the interest margin decline [4][5]. - Analysts indicate that the net interest margin has shown signs of stabilization since Q3 2025, with expectations of a significant reduction in the margin decline in 2026 [5]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Risks - The overall asset quality of banks is expected to remain stable, with corporate asset quality benefiting from the steady progress of debt resolution [5]. - Non-performing loan ratios for several banks, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China CITIC Bank, indicate a stable asset quality, with ratios of 1.26% and 1.15% respectively [5]. - Retail non-performing loan risks are anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on monitoring the real estate market and residents' income expectations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is undergoing a significant shift in marketing strategies, moving away from promoting high-interest deposit products towards recommending wealth management and investment products due to ongoing pressure on net interest margins [2][3][5]. Group 1: Changes in Marketing Strategies - Traditionally, the beginning of the year is a peak marketing season for banks, focusing on high-interest deposit products. However, this year has seen a quieter approach, with banks emphasizing wealth management instead [3][4]. - Banks are adjusting their performance evaluation metrics, reducing the weight of deposit-related indicators and focusing more on total assets under management (AUM), which includes wealth management products [3][4]. - Local banks are also shifting strategies, with many previously high-interest deposit banks lowering their deposit rates, indicating a broader industry trend [3][4]. Group 2: Importance of Deposits - Despite the shift in focus, deposits remain crucial for banks, especially in a competitive environment with narrowing interest margins. Stable and low-cost deposits are essential for business development [4]. - The current strategy aims to reduce high-cost deposits while optimizing the liability structure, moving away from the traditional "deposit-first" approach [4][5]. Group 3: Decline of High-Interest Deposits - The banking sector is experiencing a profound adjustment in its liability structure, with high-interest deposit products being phased out due to cost pressures. Many banks have removed long-term deposit options from their offerings [5][6]. - Major state-owned banks have already eliminated five-year large deposits, and some are experiencing an inverted yield curve where short-term deposit rates exceed long-term rates [5][6]. Group 4: Upcoming Maturity of Deposits - A significant portion of term deposits is set to mature, with predictions indicating that by mid-2025, 38% of total deposits will be due, amounting to approximately 57 trillion yuan [7]. - This maturity wave presents both challenges and opportunities for banks, as it may lead to liquidity pressures while also allowing for the replacement of high-interest deposits with lower-cost liabilities [7][8]. Group 5: Investment Trends - The maturing deposits are expected to be redirected towards wealth management products, public funds, and insurance savings, as these offer more attractive relative returns compared to new deposit rates [8][9]. - Banks are encouraged to introduce tiered deposit products and enhance wealth management services to retain clients' comprehensive assets rather than solely focusing on deposit volumes [9].

Core Viewpoint - The deposit market in China is undergoing significant changes as small and medium-sized banks initiate interest rate cuts, with some three-month large time deposit rates dropping below 1% [1][2][7] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - Several small and medium-sized banks have reduced deposit rates, with Anhui Xin'an Bank lowering its two-year fixed deposit rate by 10 basis points to 2.25% [2] - Some rural commercial banks have seen their three-month large time deposit rates fall below 1%, such as Mengla Rural Commercial Bank offering a rate of 0.93% [2][5] - The overall trend indicates that over 30 banks have announced large time deposit issuances for 2026, with most having terms of one year or less, and three- to five-year terms being less common [2][4] Group 2: Economic Context - The decline in deposit rates reflects a broader transformation in the banking sector, driven by a need to address compressed net interest margins and support the real economy [7] - The average net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% as of Q3 2025, with large banks at 1.31%, indicating a challenging environment for maintaining profitability [7] Group 3: Investor Implications - The shift in deposit rates signifies the end of the "easy money" era, prompting investors to rethink their financial strategies and diversify their asset allocations [1][8] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a new mindset focused on constructing optimal risk-return combinations rather than solely pursuing high interest rates [8] - Recommendations for investors include allocating funds to money market funds for liquidity, embracing "fixed income plus" products for higher returns, and using dollar-cost averaging for long-term investments in high-dividend assets or broad market indices [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant changes in the deposit market in China, highlighting a shift from traditional savings to diversified asset allocations due to a low-interest-rate environment [2][3][7]. Group 1: Deposit Market Changes - By the end of 2025, traditional high-interest three-year and five-year fixed deposits are becoming scarce, with rates generally dropping to the "1" range [2]. - A wave of interest rate cuts has been observed across various banks, with state-owned banks leading the way, followed by smaller banks that have implemented more frequent and larger cuts [3][5]. - The trend of "deposit migration" is accelerating, with residents moving funds from traditional deposits to wealth management, insurance, and gold [2][7]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - As of May 20, 2025, six major state-owned banks reduced their deposit rates, with three-year and five-year fixed deposit rates cut by 25 basis points [3]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed, with the average net interest margin reported at 1.42% as of the end of Q3 2025, marking a historical low [5]. Group 3: Impact on Asset Allocation - Data shows that from January to November 2025, the growth of residents' fixed deposits has significantly slowed, leading to a decrease in their share of total financial assets [6]. - The interaction between non-bank institutions and residents' deposits has increased market activity, indicating a trend towards diversified asset allocation [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the adjustment in the deposit market will deepen in 2026, with the trend of "deposit migration" expected to continue [7]. - It is anticipated that approximately 2-4 trillion yuan will flow into non-fixed deposit investment areas in 2026, reflecting a shift in residents' savings behavior [7]. Group 5: Banking Strategies - Different banking institutions are expected to adopt varied strategies in 2026, with state-owned banks focusing on wealth management to offset net interest margin pressures, while smaller banks may be more sensitive to deposit rates [8]. - Banks are encouraged to innovate product designs and improve service levels to enhance the proportion of short-term deposits, while also implementing a differentiated pricing system based on customer contributions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a significant shift as deposit rates decline, leading to a "deposit migration" where residents are moving their funds from traditional deposits to diversified assets like wealth management products, insurance, and gold. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with further adjustments in the deposit market anticipated [1][7]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - In 2025, the personal deposit and wealth management markets showed a clear structural differentiation, with long-term fixed deposit rates generally falling into the "1" range, and high-interest products like large-denomination certificates of deposit being withdrawn [2]. - Major state-owned banks initiated a round of interest rate cuts on May 20, 2025, reducing the interest rate on demand deposits by 5 basis points to 0.05%, and cutting rates on short-term fixed deposits by 15 basis points [2]. - Smaller banks have been more aggressive in their rate cuts, with some reducing three-year fixed deposit rates from 2.8% to 2.15% and five-year rates from 2.8% to 2.1% [2]. Group 2: Withdrawal of Long-Term Deposit Products - Many private banks have already removed five-year fixed deposit products, while state-owned banks have significantly reduced the availability of three and five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit [3]. - The trend of withdrawing long-term deposit products is evident across various banks, with major state-owned banks no longer offering five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit on their mobile banking apps [3]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The prolonged low macro interest rate environment has led to a decrease in loan market quoted rates (LPR), resulting in lower bank loan yields while deposit costs remain rigid, compressing net interest margins [4]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42%, with state-owned banks at 1.31% and joint-stock banks at 1.56%, all at historical lows [4]. - Many smaller banks have paused new business for three to five-year fixed deposits and large-denomination certificates of deposit to reduce high-cost long-term funding, thereby enhancing funding flexibility [4]. Group 4: Impact on Resident Asset Allocation - Data from the central bank indicates that from January to November 2025, the growth of resident fixed deposits slowed significantly, with a noticeable shift towards higher-yielding assets such as wealth management products, insurance, and gold [5]. - The interaction between non-bank institutions and resident deposits has increased market trading activity, reflecting a trend towards diversified asset allocation [5]. - In 2025, local banks employed gift marketing and loan-deposit linkage strategies to maintain customer loyalty, while state-owned banks focused on optimizing liability structures and cost control [5]. Group 5: Outlook for 2026 - Industry experts predict that the adjustment in the deposit market will deepen in 2026, with the "deposit migration" trend expected to persist as residents continue to shift savings towards diversified assets [7]. - By the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of outstanding wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.42% [7]. - Analysts forecast that retail deposit average rates will decrease by approximately 30 basis points in 2026, with a significant increase in the growth of non-fixed deposit investments [7]. Group 6: Differentiated Strategies Among Banks - In 2026, different types of banks are expected to adopt varied strategies, with state-owned banks focusing on wealth management to offset net interest margin pressures, while smaller banks may be more sensitive to deposit rates [8]. - Smaller banks are likely to attract deposits through differentiated pricing, flexible term products, and innovative offerings linked to gold, foreign exchange, or stock indices [8]. - Banks are encouraged to enhance service levels and innovate product designs to improve the proportion of demand and short-term deposits, thereby optimizing deposit maturity structures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The banking deposit market is undergoing a significant restructuring driven by a "comprehensive interest rate cut" and the exit of long-term products, leading to a more balanced interest rate landscape across various banking institutions [1][3][4]. Interest Rate Cuts - A widespread interest rate cut began on May 20, 2025, initiated by six major state-owned banks, with reductions in both short-term and long-term deposit rates [3][4]. - The interest rates for various deposit products were lowered, with the 3-year and 5-year fixed deposit rates dropping to 1.25% and 1.3%, respectively [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The interest rate cuts have extended to smaller banks, which have adjusted rates across all deposit categories, with some institutions reducing rates by up to 80 basis points [4][5]. - The exit of long-term deposit products is being led by smaller banks, with some institutions removing 5-year fixed deposits from their offerings entirely [4][5]. Net Interest Margin Pressure - The continuous narrowing of net interest margins due to structural changes in financing demand and declining loan rates has pressured banks to lower deposit costs [6][7]. - As of Q3 2025, the average net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42%, with variations among different types of banks [6]. Changing Deposit Strategies - Banks are shifting their deposit strategies to focus on cost control and optimizing liability structures, moving away from high-interest deposit models [7][8]. - Local banks are increasingly using marketing strategies that emphasize gifts and rewards to attract deposits, while state-owned banks are focusing on optimizing their liability structures [8][9]. Trends in Fund Allocation - There is a noticeable trend of funds moving away from traditional low-yield deposit products towards higher-yield wealth management products, gold, and insurance [9][10]. - The scale of wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan by Q3 2025, reflecting a shift in consumer mindset from saving to investing [9]. Future Outlook - The trend of "deposit migration" is expected to continue into 2026, driven by the persistent low-interest rate environment and the appeal of higher-return investment options [9][10]. - Banks may accelerate the introduction of innovative products linked to gold, foreign exchange, or stock indices to attract deposits and enhance liquidity management [10].

Group 1 - The core adjustment wave in 2025 focuses on "comprehensive interest rate cuts" and the exit of long-term products, leading to a restructuring of the bank deposit market [1][10] - Major state-owned banks initiated the interest rate cuts, with a full coverage of the "interest rate reduction" category by small and medium-sized banks following suit, resulting in a more balanced market interest rate structure [3][4] - The trend of "deposit migration" is evident as funds shift towards wealth management, precious metals, and insurance due to declining deposit rates and the disappearance of long-term yield advantages [1][9] Group 2 - In May 2025, six major state-owned banks lowered their deposit rates, with a reduction of 5 basis points for demand deposits and up to 25 basis points for long-term deposits [3][4] - Small and medium-sized banks have shifted their interest rate reduction logic to cover all categories, with some banks reducing rates by up to 80 basis points, leading to a gradual equilibrium in the deposit market [4][5] - The exit of long-term deposit products is primarily driven by smaller banks, with some banks removing 5-year term deposits from their offerings entirely [4][5] Group 3 - The continuous narrowing of net interest margins due to structural changes in financing demand and declining loan rates has pressured banks to lower deposit costs and optimize their liability structures [7][10] - The current net interest margin for commercial banks is at a historical low of 1.42%, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and rural commercial banks showing varying margins [7] - Banks are expected to enhance their asset allocation and increase the proportion of high-yield assets to improve returns while managing interest rate risks through various financial tools [5][7] Group 4 - The "deposit migration" trend is expected to continue into 2026, driven by the persistent low interest rate environment and the ongoing search for higher returns by depositors [9][10] - The wealth management market has become a primary destination for funds, with the scale of existing wealth management products reaching 32.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in residents' investment mindset [9] - Different types of banks will focus on varying strategies, with state-owned banks likely emphasizing wealth management to counter cost pressures, while smaller banks may adjust deposit rates more frequently to attract funds [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC expresses a positive outlook on the absolute and relative performance of domestic bank stocks, projecting revenue and net profit growth for listed banks in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue for the covered listed banks is expected to increase by 2.5% and 3.6% year-on-year in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise by 1.9% and 2.6% year-on-year for the same periods [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Trends - The pressure on net interest margins is anticipated to further narrow, with a shift towards quality over quantity in credit issuance due to weak credit demand and insufficient risk compensation [1] - The characteristics of credit issuance are becoming more pronounced in terms of regions and industries [1] Group 3: Fee Income and Business Stability - After several years of fee reductions and high base pressure, the growth rate of fee income is expected to stabilize and recover [1] - Although small and micro enterprises, along with retail customer exposures, remain significant sources of non-performing loans, the stability of business exposures is maintained, with a trend of improvement in the net non-performing loan generation rate [1] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The report anticipates an acceleration in supply-side reforms within the industry, leading to a rapid decrease in the number of bank licenses, which will improve competition and the operational landscape of the industry [1]

Core Insights - The banking industry is undergoing a significant transformation in its "opening red" marketing strategy, with many banks starting their campaigns a month earlier than the traditional December kickoff. This shift is driven by the need to adapt to narrowing net interest margins and increasing market competition, focusing on wealth management as a strategic choice to enhance profitability through the expansion of intermediary business [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The net interest margin for commercial banks is under continuous pressure, with a reported decline to 1.43% in Q1 2025, down 9 basis points from the end of 2024. Some A-share listed banks have seen their net interest margins fall below the industry warning line of 1.8% [2]. - The economic environment is intensifying competition among banks, prompting many to initiate their "opening red" strategies early to gain a competitive edge. Wealth management is identified as a key growth area within intermediary business [2]. Group 2: Strategic Responses - Three core strategies are proposed for banks, especially smaller ones, to navigate the transformation towards wealth management: - Actively pursue asset management licenses and collaborate with existing wealth management companies to issue products, thereby retaining customer funds and stabilizing intermediary income [3]. - Deepen collaboration with third-party institutions such as funds, insurance, and trusts to enhance product offerings and meet diverse customer needs, which can lead to steady growth in non-interest income [3]. - Utilize big data to analyze customer profiles and preferences, allowing for tailored wealth management services for high-net-worth clients and standardized, low-cost investment options for the general public, thereby increasing the contribution of individual clients to intermediary income [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The early start and focus shift in the "opening red" campaign signify that the banking industry is entering a critical phase of transformation. As net interest margins stabilize but long-term pressures remain, the shift towards wealth management is not only a marketing focus but also a core competitive advantage for achieving high-quality development in the banking sector [4].