据法国媒体此前报道，勒科尔尼原本定于下周分别在国民议会和参议院介绍新一届政府总体政策，之后公布其余部长级代表的任命情况。马克龙还定于6 日举行首次新内阁会议。 不过，新一届政府首批成员名单公布后，极右翼政党国民联盟主席巴尔代拉和极左翼政党"不屈法国"领导人梅朗雄都在社交媒体上发文，批评新政府成员 只是旧政府的"延续"，没有实质性改变。 据央视新闻，法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马克龙递交辞呈，马克龙已接受辞呈。而这距离勒科尔尼被任命为总理还不满一个月。 法国股市直线跳水，截至发稿，法国CAC40指数大跌近2%。此外，刚开盘的英国与德国股指也集体跳水。 | < W | 法国CAC40(FCHI) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 10-06 09:54:45 | | | | | | 7929.88 | 8081.54 | 昨收 | | 成交额 | 0 | | -151.66 -1.88% | | 今井 | 8035.33 | 成交量 | 0 | | 上 涨 | 0 | 中 营 | 0 | 下 跌 | 0 | | 最高价 | 8035.72 | 市盈率 ...

| W | | | 法国CAC40(FCHI) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 10-06 09:59:00 | | | | 7916.32 | | 昨收 | 8081.54 | 成交额 | 0.00 | | -165.22 | -2.04% | 今开 | 8035.33 | 成交量 | 0 | | 上涨 | 0 | 平盘 | 0 | 下跌 | 0 | | 最高价 | 8035.72 | 市盈率 | 18.6 | 近20日 | 2.35% | | 最低价 | 7916.32 | 市净率 | 2.07 | 今年来 | 7.26% | | સ્ત્રાવ | 五日 | 目K | | 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多 | 0 | | 叠加 | | | | | | | 8246.76 | | | | | 2.04% | | 8081.54 | | | | | 0.00% | | while | | | | | | | 7916.32 | | | | | -2.04% | | 09:00 | | | | | 17:35 | 9月8日，因主打财政紧缩的2026年财政 ...

主要成份股中，银行股领跌，法国兴业银行、法国巴黎银行、法国农业信贷银行跌幅居于前列。 法国主要股票指数集体飘绿。 【导读】法国总理勒科尔尼宣布辞职，引发市场巨震 中国基金报晨曦综合整理 法国市场，突遭"黑天鹅"！ 据央视新闻，当地时间10月6日，法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马克龙递交辞呈，马克龙已接受辞呈。而这距离勒科尔尼被任命为总理还 不满一个月。 法国CAC40指数大幅跳水，跌超2%。 | 综合屏 个股热图 综合排名 | | | --- | --- | | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 | 序号 代码 名称 | | 7940.76 -140.78 -1.74% | 1 FCHI 法国CAC40 | | 2 | | | 3 CACLG 法国CAC大盘60 8549.82 -153.91-1.77% | | | 4 | | | ம CAMID 法国CAC中盘60递减 7396.31 -180.97 -2.39% | | | 6 | | | 7 14253.28 -338.52 -2.32% | | | 8 CACS 法国CAC小盘 16124.52 -333.41 -2.03% | | 法国10年期国债收益率上升9个基点至3 ...

10月3日公布的数据显示，美国9月ISM非制造业PMI从前值52大幅下滑至50，已经处于滑入萎缩区间的临界 点。这反映出美国的服务业正在恶化，而服务业是支撑美国经济的重要支柱。 同日，由于美国政府停摆，本来安排公布的美国9月非农就业数据未公布。不过，按照市场对9月非农就业数 据的预期值，该数据仍然处于相当低的水平。 在前期的讲话中，包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的一些市场人士都警告，美国经济存在下行风险。这也正是美 联储在过去的9月议息会议上重启降息的重要依据。市场普遍认为，美联储在即将召开的10月议息会议上仍 然会降息25个基点。 然而，货币政策对于经济的影响具有一定的滞后性，况且每次25个基点的小幅降息能够在多大程度上支撑美 国经济也存在很大的疑问。 笔者认为，在鲍威尔明年5月卸任美联储主席之前，美联储会仍然对货币政策秉持非常谨慎的态度，快速和 大幅的降息举措很难出现。在这样的情况下，美国经济将会承受更大的负面压力，不排除出现"黑天鹅事 件"的可能性。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的 准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险， ...

美国政坛的"黑天鹅"正在逼近。 10月1日，据央视新闻，当地时间9月30日，美国参议院否决民主党的政府拨款法案，美联邦政府可能在 数小时后停摆。据悉，参议院接下来将对众议院通过的共和党提出的提案进行表决。该提案将为政府提 供七周的资金。若国会无法在最后期限前通过临时拨款法案，部分联邦机构将于10月1日起被迫停摆， 数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，美国经济数据的发布也将受到影响。 美国总统特朗普当天表示，一旦美联邦政府"关门"，可能导致大量联邦雇员被裁。他还表示，若不满意 军方将领，将"当场解职"。与此同时，特朗普政府各个部门密集公布了应对政府停摆的详细计划。其 中，美国劳工部称，停摆期间将暂停发布经济数据，包括备受关注的9月非农就业报告。 在29日晚间的会谈结束后，美国副总统、共和党人万斯直截了当地表示："我认为我们正走向停摆"。万 斯还透露了双方的一大分歧点，也就是医保政策。万斯表示，"美国的医疗保健政策已经崩溃"，共和党 在过去执政的8个月中不断尝试解决这一问题。 联邦政府的现有资金将于当地时间周三(10月1日)凌晨0时01分正式耗尽。若届时无法达成协议，一场将 导致数十万联邦雇员被迫休假、公共服务中断的政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden mudslide at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has caused a significant disruption in the global copper market, leading to a sharp increase in copper prices and raising concerns about supply shortages in the context of rising demand from the electric vehicle sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Incident Impact - The Grasberg mine, which produces 800,000 tons of copper annually, accounts for approximately 3.5% of global copper output, and its closure is expected to have a profound impact on the market [1]. - Following the incident, copper prices surged, with a 3.6% increase on September 24, leading to a cumulative rise of 15% for the year [2]. - The potential reduction in global copper supply could reach 270,000 tons by 2026, equivalent to the copper required for 3 million electric vehicles [1][2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has reacted with extreme volatility, with traders experiencing significant losses and gains, indicating that traditional fundamental analysis has become less effective [5]. - The demand for copper in electric vehicles is significantly higher than in traditional fuel vehicles, with electric vehicles requiring seven to eight times more copper [5]. - The incident has highlighted the fragility of the global copper supply chain, as a single mine's disruption can lead to widespread market instability [3][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There is skepticism regarding the timeline for the mine's recovery, with industry experts doubting the feasibility of the 2027 production resumption target [3]. - Suggestions for establishing strategic copper reserves and increasing overseas mining cooperation have been proposed, but these solutions are unlikely to yield immediate results [6]. - The copper market is now viewed as a barometer for the global industrial chain, with fluctuations affecting various sectors, including electric vehicles, home appliances, and electronics [6][7].

一场重大矿难事故正让全球第二大铜矿陷入停产，并由此引发了全球金属市场的强烈震动。 9月24日，美国矿业巨头矿业巨头Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）发表声明宣布，其供应合同进入"不可抗力"状态。而这一突发事件被华尔街迅速定性 为"黑天鹅事件"，点燃了市场对铜供应长期短缺的忧虑，并推动铜价大幅飙升。 华尔街见闻写道，事件的核心是Freeport位于印尼的Grasberg矿山。该公司确认，9月8日发生的一场大规模泥石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有 五人失踪。作为应对，公司已全面暂停该矿区的生产活动，并启动了不可抗力条款，该条款允许生产商在遭遇不可预见的灾难时暂停履行供应合 同。 高盛："黑天鹅"来袭，供应缺口或达数十万吨 市场的反应立竿见影。消息传出后，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）的铜期货价格上涨近4%，报4.825美元/磅。Freeport的股价在盘前交易中重挫， 而其竞争对手如嘉能可和Boliden等铜业公司的股价则应声上涨。 丹麦盛宝银行商品策略主管Ole Hansen对此评论道："交易员们先买入，然后再问问题"，精准地描绘了市场在供应恐慌下的本能反应。 高盛的大宗商品团队将此次Grasberg矿山 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant mining accident at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has led to a supply disruption, raising concerns about a long-term copper shortage and causing a sharp increase in copper prices [2][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On September 24, Freeport-McMoRan announced that its supply contracts entered a state of "force majeure" due to a large landslide on September 8, resulting in two fatalities and five missing workers [2]. - The Grasberg mine is the second-largest copper mine globally and also the largest gold mine, contributing approximately 3.2% of global copper supply and nearly 30% of Freeport's copper production [9]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) surged nearly 4%, reaching $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell in pre-market trading [4]. - Competitors like Glencore and Boliden saw their stock prices rise, indicating a market reaction driven by supply fears [4]. Group 3: Supply Impact - Goldman Sachs labeled the Grasberg shutdown as a "black swan event," predicting a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months, with potential further losses of 1 to 2 million tons [7]. - The supply disruption is expected to have a disproportionate impact on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) due to existing overstock issues in the U.S. market [11]. Group 4: Long-term Production Outlook - Freeport has lowered its third-quarter copper and gold sales guidance by 4% and 6%, respectively, and anticipates a 35% drop in copper and gold production for 2026 compared to previous estimates [14]. - Full production recovery at Grasberg may not occur until 2027, raising concerns for industries reliant on copper, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [14][15].

近日，美国矿业巨头Freeport McMoRan印尼子公司Grasberg矿山发生致命泥石流事故，导致两名工人死亡。作为应对，公司暂停了该矿区的生产活动，并启 动了不可抗力条款。这一突发事件被华尔街迅速定性为"黑天鹅"事件，引发了市场对铜供应长期短缺的忧虑，并推动铜价大幅飙升。 持续影响全球铜供应链 9月8日，Grasberg GBC矿区中的一个区块发生大规模湿性矿料涌出事故，Grasberg矿区停产。9月24日，Grasberg发布进展公告，9月8日发生的泥石流事故已 造成两名工人死亡，另有五名工人仍下落不明。 根据Freeport预计，最早要到2027年才能恢复事故前的生产水平，2026年铜金产量较此前预期下降约35%。该矿山占公司已探明储量的50%和2029年前预计 产量的约70%。长期停产将对全球铜供应链造成持续冲击。 公开资料显示，Freeport McMoRan Inc.（自由港迈克墨伦铜金矿公司）是一家在全球矿业领域占据重要地位的国际矿业公司。其在北美、南美、印度尼西亚 等地从事金、钼等矿产资源开发。北美地区有7座露天开采铜矿和2座钼矿，如亚利桑那州的Morenci铜矿；南美运营秘鲁的塞罗贝尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent disaster at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine has triggered significant supply concerns in the copper market, leading to a sharp increase in copper prices and a reevaluation of market dynamics [2][4][5] Group 1: Incident Overview - On September 8, a mudslide at the Grasberg mine resulted in the loss of two workers and left five missing, causing substantial damage to infrastructure [2] - The Grasberg mine contributes 3.2% of global copper supply and 70% of Freeport's gold production, making its operational halt critical [2] - Following the incident, copper prices surged by 4% to $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell by 8% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Traders reacted instinctively to the supply disruption, with significant price movements observed across the market [4] - Goldman Sachs characterized the event as a "black swan," predicting a potential copper supply loss of 500,000 tons over the next 12-15 months, which could escalate to 2 million tons if recovery is delayed [4] - The current inventory structure is problematic, with 60% of global visible inventory locked in North America due to tariffs, limiting alternative sourcing options for Asian buyers [4] Group 3: Broader Supply Chain Implications - Other mines, such as Peru's Constancia and Panama's Cobre Panama, are also facing operational challenges, contributing to a tightening copper market [5] - Citigroup and Bank of America have raised their 2025 copper price forecasts to $5.2 per pound, an 18% increase from earlier predictions [5] - Freeport has revised its production guidance for 2026 down by 35%, indicating a prolonged recovery timeline that may extend to 2027 for full capacity restoration [5] Group 4: Impact on Industries - The copper supply shortage poses a significant challenge for manufacturers focused on global energy transition, as electric vehicles and wind farms require substantial copper [5] - If the supply gap persists for two years, the electric vehicle sector alone could consume an additional 300,000 tons of refined copper, equivalent to 40% of global tradable inventory [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The capital markets are beginning to reassess the gap between green demand and brown supply, with significant inflows into copper mining ETFs and rising credit default swap rates for Freeport [6] - Analysts highlight that this operational disruption is the most severe for Freeport in 30 years, emphasizing the tangible risks posed by ESG factors and community conflicts [6] - The incident has exposed vulnerabilities in the global metal supply chain, raising concerns about potential systemic risks in the market [7]