摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Michael Wilson发出了最看多美股的声音之一。他预测，在强劲企业盈 利的支撑下，标普500指数将在未来一年上涨16%。Michael Wilson预计，到2026年底，标普500指数将 交易于7,800点附近。这一目标在一众华尔街策略师中属于最高水平之一，也意味着该指数将连续第四 年实现两位数涨幅。数据显示，标普500指数今年迄今已大涨14%，此前两年均实现了超过20%的涨 幅。 Michael Wilson在一份报告中表示："我们正处于一轮新的牛市和盈利周期之中，尤其是对指数中许多此 前落后的板块而言。"该策略师预计，标普500指数成分股公司的每股收益未来两年将分别增长17%和 12%。他提到，企业更强的定价能力、人工智能带来的效率提升、宽松的税收与监管政策以及稳定的利 率都是支撑因素。 与此同时，Michael Wilson也警告称，若美联储政策保持比预期更强硬的立场，可能带来短期风险。他 补充称，从长期看，"过热"的经济也可能重新点燃通胀。 值得一提的是，Michael Wilson是今年4月在美国总统特朗普实施大范围关税导致美股大跌之后，仍坚持 看多观点的少数预测 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite concerns over monetary policy and AI valuations, the technology sector remains optimistic, with a bull market expected to last at least two more years [1][2] - Dan Ives describes the current market tension as "short-sighted behavior" and emphasizes strong demand for semiconductor ETFs, noting a 30% increase in demand since June [1] - The current environment is defined as a "capital expenditure super cycle," indicating an early stage of technological transformation, with investors only in the "second and third phases" of the AI revolution [1] Group 2 - Ives defends the substantial capital expenditures of large tech companies, stating that for every $1 invested, they can expect a return of $8 to $10 in the coming years [1] - Companies like Meta (META.US), Oracle (ORCL.US), and Tesla (TSLA.US) are highlighted as having significant investment potential, with Meta described as a "compelling quality stock" despite recent sell-offs [1] - Ives acknowledges the need for careful selection among potential "losers" in the tech sector but maintains an overall optimistic outlook, pointing out major opportunities in infrastructure and second to fourth-tier derivative companies, specifically mentioning Nebius (NBIS.US) and CoreWeave (CRWV.US) [1] Group 3 - Ives opposes comparisons of the current market to the internet bubble, asserting that the present situation resembles the opportunity period of 1996 rather than the bubble phase of 1999-2000 [2] - He warns that investors focused solely on short-term valuations risk missing historic opportunities, citing that those fixated on valuation analysis over the past two decades have ultimately missed out on transformative tech stocks [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q3 2025 hotel EBITDA of $28.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of $26.2 million, with adjusted FFO of $0.32 per share [22] - The GOP margin for the quarter was 43.6%, down 90 basis points from Q3 2024, reflecting strong expense control despite a challenging rent-par environment [22] - Year-over-year increase in labor and benefits cost per occupied room was held to 1.7% [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rent-par performance in Silicon Valley showed mixed results, with Mountain View and San Mateo hotels growing by 2.5%, while Sunnyvale hotels fell by 9% [9] - Coastal Northeast and Greater New York markets experienced RevPAR growth of 2% and 8%, respectively, with the Hampton Inn Portland achieving an all-time record high for quarterly RevPAR [10] - The six predominantly leisure hotels produced rent-par growth of 3%, with SpringHill Suites Savannah seeing over 30% growth post-renovation [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that vehicle border crossings from Canada were down approximately 35% in Q3 compared to last year, impacting hotel performance in certain regions [17] - The three Washington, D.C. hotels experienced significant volatility, with rent-par down 19% in October due to the government shutdown [16] - Overall, the supply growth in the market is projected to remain below 1% for the next year, which is favorable for lodging [43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed the sale of five older hotels to enhance liquidity for future investments and plans to remain active in share repurchases, believing the stock is undervalued [5][6] - The company is optimistic about external growth opportunities, with deal flow underwriting steady and seller pricing expectations becoming more reasonable [6] - Development plans include the Home2 Suites in Portland, Maine, with site work expected to start in 2026 and a projected opening in early 2028 [30] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the volatility in operating fundamentals and the impact of external factors like government shutdowns and travel spending halts on performance [13] - The outlook for lodging dynamics is favorable, with expectations for capital investments and limited supply growth to support rent-par and margin expansion in the coming years [13] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term health of the markets, particularly in the Central and Southeastern U.S. [7] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 500,000 shares, with plans to continue active repurchases [5][23] - Capital expenditures for the quarter were approximately $4 million, with ongoing renovations planned for two hotels [21] - The common dividend was increased by almost 30% earlier in the year, currently at 9 cents per share per quarter [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Investment opportunities in the acquisition market - Management indicated that the current market presents opportunities due to negative rent-par trends, with cap rates now above 8% [26] Question: Timing of the Portland Maine development - Site work for the Portland development is expected to start in 2026, with a construction timeline of 21-24 months [30] Question: Factors driving rent-par performance variance - The decline was primarily due to the performance of the Sunnyvale hotels and the impact of the government shutdown on D.C. hotels [36] Question: Outlook for convention business in 2026 - The convention calendar in Austin and Dallas is expected to remain stable until 2027, with supply growth projected to be less than 1% [42] Question: Capital allocation priorities - The company prioritizes share repurchases, followed by hotel acquisitions and ongoing development projects [48]