来源丨南财号"首席商业评论" 作者丨星影 上周起，多位网友发帖称，蜜雪冰城多个门店已无法买到柠檬水。店员在接受媒体采访时坦 言："柠檬水没货了，预计这两天这款产品都没有货。" 在部分地区的门店，柠檬水还成了限 量供应产品。 有媒体分析，柠檬水断档实则源于近期柠檬价格的持续上涨。截至 2025 年 9 月 17 日，全国 柠檬平均批发价为 15 元 / 公斤，较去年同期近乎翻倍。 有意思的是，2024 年，蜜雪冰城还在高调展现其供应链领域的突出优势 —— 除了在农产品原 产地 "包下山头"、自建工厂，还自主生产部分核心包装材料与门店设备，例如自产的糖蜜和 果蜜包装瓶，采购价就比外部采购低约50%。 这一次，柠檬水为何让蜜雪冰城突然 "翻车"？其他茶饮品牌又为何未遭遇类似的柠檬断供危 机呢？ 爆款单品的原料都在"一个篮子"里？ 据蜜雪冰城官方微信公众号信息，其冰鲜柠檬水一年销量超 10 亿杯，被称为 "镇店之宝"。按 4 元1杯的售价计算，这款产品年销售额达 40 亿元，占蜜雪集团 2025 年上半年 148.7 亿元收 图片来源：蜜雪冰城 入的 13%。 中国柠檬主产区集中在四川安岳县，种植面积达 48 万亩， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent shortage of lemon water at Mixue Ice City highlights significant risks within the industry, primarily due to rising lemon prices and supply chain vulnerabilities [1][5][11]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Pricing Issues - The average wholesale price of lemons in China has nearly doubled compared to the same period last year, reaching 15 RMB per kilogram as of September 17, 2025 [3]. - Mixue Ice City sells over 1 billion cups of its lemon water annually, generating approximately 4 billion RMB in sales, which constitutes 13% of the company's revenue for the first half of 2025 [5]. - The company has invested in its supply chain by controlling over 50% of high-quality fresh fruit resources in key lemon-producing areas, but this concentration has amplified risks when faced with climate disasters and global supply chain disruptions [8][11]. Group 2: Climate Impact and Global Supply Chain - Major lemon-producing regions in China, particularly Sichuan and Chongqing, have faced severe droughts and high temperatures, leading to expected reductions in lemon supply by 50-60% [8]. - Global supply chain issues, including adverse weather in other lemon-producing countries, are projected to decrease global lemon supply by 6% [8][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Risk Management - Other tea brands have successfully mitigated the lemon crisis by diversifying their sourcing strategies and using alternative lemon varieties that are less affected by climate issues [15]. - Brands like Starbucks and CoCo utilize a global sourcing model to minimize risks associated with local supply disruptions, while Mixue's low-price strategy has constrained its ability to pass on rising costs to consumers [15][19]. - The crisis underscores the vulnerability of Mixue's concentrated capital model, contrasting with competitors who have adopted more resilient supply chain strategies [20].