Core Viewpoint - The recent shortage of lemons affecting multiple locations of Mixue Ice City is attributed to delays in imported lemons due to weather conditions and the initial harvesting phase of local lemons in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, leading to temporary supply tightness [2][10]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Pricing - Mixue Ice City has begun large-scale purchases of lemons from Anyue County, which is expected to alleviate future supply pressures, although the procurement prices for lemons have increased compared to previous years [2][6]. - The average wholesale price of lemons in China has risen to 14.91 yuan per kilogram in September 2025, nearly double the price of 7.87 yuan per kilogram from the previous year [9]. - The lemon production in Anyue County, a major supplier for Mixue Ice City, is projected to decline by approximately 20% due to adverse weather conditions, including high temperatures and late spring frost [8][9]. Group 2: Impact on Mixue Ice City - Mixue Ice City sold approximately 11 billion cups of its signature lemon water from January to September 2024, generating over 4 billion yuan in sales from this single product [10]. - The rising lemon prices pose a risk to Mixue Ice City's profit margins, as the company has historically focused on cost control and competitive pricing [11]. - If the current lemon prices are maintained and costs cannot be passed on to consumers, Mixue Ice City may face potential losses, challenging its high-value positioning in the market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent shortage of lemon water at Mixue Ice City highlights significant risks within the industry, primarily due to rising lemon prices and supply chain vulnerabilities [1][5][11]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Pricing Issues - The average wholesale price of lemons in China has nearly doubled compared to the same period last year, reaching 15 RMB per kilogram as of September 17, 2025 [3]. - Mixue Ice City sells over 1 billion cups of its lemon water annually, generating approximately 4 billion RMB in sales, which constitutes 13% of the company's revenue for the first half of 2025 [5]. - The company has invested in its supply chain by controlling over 50% of high-quality fresh fruit resources in key lemon-producing areas, but this concentration has amplified risks when faced with climate disasters and global supply chain disruptions [8][11]. Group 2: Climate Impact and Global Supply Chain - Major lemon-producing regions in China, particularly Sichuan and Chongqing, have faced severe droughts and high temperatures, leading to expected reductions in lemon supply by 50-60% [8]. - Global supply chain issues, including adverse weather in other lemon-producing countries, are projected to decrease global lemon supply by 6% [8][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Risk Management - Other tea brands have successfully mitigated the lemon crisis by diversifying their sourcing strategies and using alternative lemon varieties that are less affected by climate issues [15]. - Brands like Starbucks and CoCo utilize a global sourcing model to minimize risks associated with local supply disruptions, while Mixue's low-price strategy has constrained its ability to pass on rising costs to consumers [15][19]. - The crisis underscores the vulnerability of Mixue's concentrated capital model, contrasting with competitors who have adopted more resilient supply chain strategies [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent shortage of lemon water at Mixue Ice City highlights significant risks within the industry, particularly related to supply chain vulnerabilities and reliance on single-source raw materials [2][6][21]. Group 1: Supply Chain Issues - Multiple stores of Mixue Ice City have reported unavailability of lemon water, with staff confirming that the product is out of stock and expected to remain so for several days [2]. - The shortage is attributed to a sharp increase in lemon prices, with the average wholesale price reaching 15 RMB per kilogram, nearly doubling compared to the same period last year [4]. - Mixue Ice City has a significant dependency on lemons from specific regions, with over 70% of its supply sourced from Sichuan and Chongqing, making it vulnerable to climate-related disruptions [12]. Group 2: Financial Impact - The ice-fresh lemon water is a key product for Mixue Ice City, with annual sales exceeding 1 billion cups, translating to a revenue of approximately 4 billion RMB, which constitutes 13% of the company's total revenue of 14.87 billion RMB for the first half of 2025 [6][9]. - The company's low-price strategy, exemplified by the 4 RMB price point for lemon water, has pressured its supply chain, making it difficult to absorb rising costs when supply shortages occur [14][20]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Other tea brands have managed to avoid similar shortages by diversifying their supply sources and utilizing different lemon varieties that are less susceptible to climate impacts [16]. - Brands like Heytea and Starbucks employ global sourcing strategies and local processing to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions [18]. - The contrasting business models and capital structures of competitors allow them to maintain higher profit margins, enabling them to better manage cost increases compared to Mixue Ice City, which has a lower gross profit margin of 31.6% [20]. Group 4: Broader Industry Implications - The lemon crisis reflects a broader conflict between capital concentration and diverse consumer demands, revealing the fragility of Mixue Ice City's single-capital model [21]. - The future of the tea beverage industry may shift from mere store expansion to a focus on controlling the entire supply chain, including cultivation and processing [21].

Core Viewpoint - The supply of fresh lemon water at some Mixue Bingcheng stores in Shanghai is returning to normal after a recent shortage caused by weather-related delays in lemon imports and local harvesting issues [2][4]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Pricing - A recent shortage of lemons was reported in multiple Mixue Bingcheng stores, but as of September 23, most locations have resumed normal supply levels [2]. - The national wholesale average price of lemons reached 14.98 yuan per kilogram as of September 22, nearly doubling from 7.87 yuan per kilogram a year earlier [3]. - The lemon market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to climate crises affecting global agricultural supply chains, with major production areas like Sichuan facing a 30%-60% reduction in output [4]. Group 2: Demand and Financial Performance - The demand for lemons has surged, with tea shops increasing their lemon purchases by 200% due to rising summer temperatures, leading to daily consumption rates exceeding 50 kilograms at top brands [4]. - Despite the rising costs of raw materials, Mixue Bingcheng has not increased the price of its fresh lemon water, which poses challenges for cost control [4]. - Mixue Bingcheng reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [6]. Group 3: Profit Margins - The gross profit margin of Mixue Bingcheng is relatively moderate, ranging between 29%-31% over the past two years, reflecting its focus on cost-effectiveness [5]. - The gross margin for the 5 yuan fresh lemon water is expected to be slightly lower than that of other higher-priced products [5].

Core Viewpoint - The climate crisis has significantly impacted the supply and pricing of lemons, which are essential for the popular lemon water product at Mixue Ice City, leading to a doubling of wholesale prices compared to last year [1][2]. Supply Situation - After experiencing a "lemon shortage crisis," many Mixue Ice City stores in Shanghai have returned to normal supply levels for their lemon water [1]. - A recent check revealed that only one out of approximately 30 stores was out of stock, indicating a recovery in supply [1]. - The shortage was attributed to delays in imported lemons due to weather conditions and the harvesting schedule of domestic lemons, but overall lemon reserves remain sufficient [2]. Price Dynamics - As of September 22, the national average wholesale price of lemons reached 14.98 yuan per kilogram, nearly double the 7.87 yuan per kilogram from the previous year [2]. - The price surge is linked to adverse weather conditions affecting major lemon-producing regions, including a 30%-60% reduction in production in Sichuan and a 25% decrease in Spain [2]. Financial Performance - Despite the rising costs of raw materials, Mixue Ice City has not increased the price of its lemon water, which poses challenges for cost control [3]. - The company's gross margin has remained relatively stable, ranging from 29% to 31% over the past two years, which is considered average within the industry [3]. - In the first half of the year, Mixue Ice City reported revenues of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The shortage of lemons is impacting the production of lemon water at various stores of Mixue Ice City, leading to increased prices and supply chain challenges for the company [1][2][19]. Group 1: Supply Chain Issues - Mixue Ice City is experiencing a lemon supply shortage due to weather-related delays in imports and the need for local lemons to be stored for optimal taste [3][4]. - The average wholesale price of lemons in China has nearly doubled from 7.84 yuan/kg last year to 15.01 yuan/kg this year [5][6]. - The production of lemons in Sichuan's Anyue County, a major supplier, has decreased due to adverse weather conditions, affecting overall supply [10][12]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations - The price of fresh lemons has surged, with local processing company Citrus Love reporting a 50% increase in orders compared to last year, leading to a peak purchase price of 9.5 yuan/kg [16][21]. - Mixue Ice City has raised the price of lemon supplies to franchisees from 200 yuan per case to 255 yuan, reflecting the increased costs [22]. - The retail price of lemon water has also been adjusted in major cities, increasing from 4 yuan to 5 yuan in some locations [23]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand for lemons has surged due to the booming tea beverage market, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [15]. - Mixue Ice City sold approximately 1.1 billion cups of lemon water in the first nine months of 2024, making it the largest lemon purchaser in China with an estimated procurement of 115,000 tons [20]. - The company is exploring alternative sourcing strategies, including importing lemons and introducing new products to mitigate the impact of rising costs [25].

Core Insights - Recent reports indicate a shortage of lemon water at Mixue Ice City, a popular beverage chain, leading to customer complaints about product availability [1][3] - The shortage is attributed to supply chain disruptions caused by weather affecting imported lemons and the harvesting period of domestic lemons, although overall lemon reserves remain sufficient [3][6] - The price of lemons has significantly increased, with the average wholesale price reaching 15 yuan per kilogram, nearly doubling from 7.83 yuan per kilogram a year ago [3][4] Company Impact - Lemon water is a key product for Mixue Ice City, generating over 40 billion yuan in annual sales from more than 1 billion cups sold [3] - The cost of lemons constitutes over 30% of the company's cost structure, leading to potential losses of 1 to 2 yuan per cup if current market prices are maintained without passing costs to consumers [6] - Franchisees are experiencing a sharp decline in daily revenue, with reports of a 30% drop in sales following the suspension of lemon water sales [6] Industry Context - The tea beverage market is expanding rapidly, with a 20% annual growth rate, while lemon planting areas are only expected to grow by 8% by 2025, creating a supply-demand imbalance [6] - Lemons have become a popular ingredient in the beverage industry, with a significant increase in product launches featuring lemons, indicating a growing market demand [6]

Core Insights - There is a supply shortage of ice-fresh lemon water at multiple locations of Mixue Ice City, particularly in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, where several stores have reported being out of stock for several days [1][2] - The company claims to sell over 1 billion cups of ice-fresh lemon water annually, with a significant contribution to its revenue, as it accounted for 15%-20% of total sales [1][2] Group 1: Supply Chain Issues - The shortage is attributed to a combination of factors, including the rapid expansion of Mixue Ice City stores, which has outpaced lemon supply [2] - Recent price increases in lemons have been noted, with the average wholesale price reaching 14.97 yuan per kilogram, nearly double the price from the previous year [2] Group 2: Company Response and Financial Performance - Mixue Ice City has acknowledged the supply issues, citing delays in imported lemons due to weather conditions and the current harvesting period for domestic lemons, which requires storage for optimal taste [2] - The company reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, up 44.1% [1][2] - As of September 19, 2025, Mixue Group's stock price was 395 HKD, down 1.05%, with a market capitalization of 149.949 billion HKD, reflecting a 36% decline from its historical high of 618.5 HKD on June 5 [2]

Group 1: Mixue Ice City - Mixue Ice City is experiencing a shortage of lemon water due to tight raw material supply, particularly yellow lemons, which have seen a decrease in production this year due to excessive rainfall [1][2] - The company sells over 1 billion cups of ice lemon water annually, generating an estimated revenue of 4 billion yuan from this single product [1] - The shortage highlights the product's popularity and market dominance, showcasing Mixue Ice City's strong consumer base and loyalty [1] Group 2: Starbucks - Starbucks employees in three states have filed a lawsuit against the company for not reimbursing costs associated with a new dress code implemented on May 12, which requires specific attire [3][4] - The new dress code aims to enhance customer experience by making the green apron more prominent, but employees are required to bear the costs of compliance [3] - The lawsuit claims that Starbucks is violating state laws that mandate reimbursement for employer-beneficial expenses, seeking compensation for all employees in the affected states [4] Group 3: Bawang Tea Ji - Bawang Tea Ji is set to open its 200th store in Malaysia, having rapidly expanded its presence in major cities across the country [5] - The company's overseas market GMV reached 235.2 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 31.8% [5] - Southeast Asia is a key focus for Bawang Tea Ji's international expansion, with plans for further store openings in collaboration with the hotel giant Magma Group [5] Group 4: Lucky Coffee - Lucky Coffee has surpassed 70 stores in Beijing, with rapid growth since June, including nearly doubling its store count in July [6] - The company has adjusted its expansion strategy to focus on first and second-tier cities, particularly in economically developed regions [6] - In July, Lucky Coffee signed over 1,200 new stores nationwide, setting a record for monthly new store signings, with total stores exceeding 8,200 by the end of August [6]

Group 1: Mixue Ice City - Mixue Ice City is experiencing a shortage of lemon water due to tight raw material supply, particularly yellow lemons, which have seen reduced production this year due to excessive rainfall [1][2] - The company claims that the overall lemon supply is sufficient, with a large batch of imported lemons expected to arrive soon, which will alleviate the shortage [1] - Lemon water is a flagship product for Mixue Ice City, selling over 1 billion cups annually, translating to an annual revenue of 4 billion yuan from this single product [1] Group 2: Starbucks - Starbucks employees in three U.S. states have filed a lawsuit against the company for not reimbursing costs associated with a new dress code implemented on May 12, which requires specific attire [3][4] - The new dress code aims to enhance customer experience by making the green apron more prominent, but employees are required to bear the costs of compliant clothing [3] - The lawsuit claims that Starbucks is violating state laws that mandate reimbursement for expenses that primarily benefit the employer [4] Group 3: Bawang Tea Ji - Bawang Tea Ji is set to open its 200th store in Malaysia, having rapidly expanded its presence in major cities across the country [5] - The company reported a 77.4% year-on-year increase in overseas market GMV, reaching 235.2 million yuan, with Southeast Asia being a key focus for expansion [5] - A strategic partnership with a major hotel group in Malaysia is expected to facilitate further store openings [5] Group 4: Luckin Coffee - Luckin Coffee has surpassed 70 stores in Beijing, with rapid growth observed since June, including nearly doubling the number of stores in July [6] - The company has adjusted its expansion strategy to focus on first and second-tier cities, particularly in economically developed regions [6] - Luckin Coffee signed over 1,200 new stores in July, setting a record for monthly new store signings, and has launched 32 new products in the first half of the year [6]