最近两年时间，网络上经常会出现一个词——外资大撤退。 有人看到星巴克卖掉中国业务，有人数着汉堡王、哈根达斯、宜家还要关掉多少店面，甚至还有人认为 外资的离开是因为中国经济要不行了。 可问题来了，这是真的"撤离"，还是一种误读？中国经济真的像传言里那样脆弱吗？ 要知道我们才"刚吃饱饭"没几年，而第二大经济体的名号也绝不是空穴来风，因此在恐慌之前，还是得 从现实中找寻真正的事实。 撤资并非全景 2024 年中国新设外商投资企业近5.91万家，比上年增加了近10%，与此同时，2024年中国实际使用外资 金额下降了27.1%。 企业数量在增，实际投钱在降，于是有人就开始大喊"外资撤离"，但事实上外资这真是"撤走了"吗？我 们得搞清楚什么是"撤离"，什么是投资结构变化。 从全球视角看这件事，可以发现当前全球外商直接投资正处于波动期。 2025年前十个月，中国吸收的外资虽有所下滑，但新设外企数量大幅增长，而且高技术和新兴产业外资 更活跃。 这说明不是资本在离开中国市场，而是资本在重新布局、战略调整，这就像股票一样，有人卖掉大头换 现金，同时有人不断在高成长板块埋单。 外资变化是优胜劣汰，是资源再配置，而不是一哄而散的"撤 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's strategy of importing crude oil at high prices while exporting refined oil at lower prices is not merely a loss-making business but is deeply intertwined with national energy security, tax policies, and industrial layout [3][25]. Taxation - The significant difference in pricing between domestic and exported refined oil is largely influenced by China's tax policies, particularly the "processing trade" model, which allows for tax exemptions on imported crude oil and exported refined products [7][9]. - The tax structure encourages companies to enhance refining capabilities and expand international market share, rather than simply incurring losses [9][10]. Transportation Costs - The high costs associated with transporting refined oil, such as shipping fees and operational expenses, are factored into pricing strategies, allowing Chinese refineries to remain competitive in the Asian market [14][16]. - The scale advantages of Chinese refining bases, which integrate logistics and production, help to mitigate costs and enhance pricing competitiveness [18][20]. Refining Capacity Overcapacity - China's refining capacity currently stands at 1 billion tons per year, while domestic demand is only 390 million tons, leading to significant overcapacity [20][22]. - The shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy sources has reduced domestic oil consumption, necessitating exports to manage excess capacity [20][24]. - Some refineries are transitioning to produce higher-value chemical products, which can yield significantly higher profits compared to traditional refined oil [20][24]. Strategic Implications - The export of refined oil serves not only as a means to manage excess capacity but also as a strategic move to build geopolitical relationships, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and Central Asia [22][24]. - The current pricing strategy is viewed as a short-term sacrifice for long-term gains, positioning China favorably in the global energy transition landscape [24][27].