Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market strategy for 2026, characterized by a "slow bear" and "divergence" in "relative value" [1] - The real estate industry is expected to bottom out in Q2 2026, with sales, inventory, and new construction growth rates having reached their lowest points [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The projected upper limit for interest rates in 2026 is 2.25%, driven primarily by nominal GDP recovery, which is expected to exceed 5% [1][3] - The current policy framework emphasizes stability to address uncertainties and structural challenges, avoiding large-scale stimulus while supporting emerging industries [1][7] - The CPI is forecasted to center around 0.8% next year, while PPI is expected to recover to above -1%, influenced by monetary activation and the bottoming out of real estate investment [1][8] - The market's focus on the lower limit of interest rates is determined by the cost of bank liabilities, which is currently stable at around 1.6% [1][9] Important but Overlooked Content - The phenomenon of monetary activation is reflected in the M1-M2 differential, which has decreased from over 8% to 1%-2% recently, indicating a shift from time deposits to demand deposits [4][5] - The real estate sector is currently experiencing negative growth across all metrics, but improvements are expected as investment growth bottoms out [6] - The sales regulations are aimed at protecting investors and promoting long-term holding, which has led to behavioral changes in the market [21][22] - Non-bank institutions are facing challenges due to new sales regulations and valuation adjustments, leading to potential liquidity opportunities [14] - The macro trading strategy for 2026 will focus on the expected recovery of fundamentals and the panic caused by new redemption fee regulations [15] Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2026 will be characterized by "trading," with structural gaming opportunities arising from the rotation between interest rates and credit [20] - The current monetary policy is expected to have limited room for rate cuts, with only 1-2 potential cuts anticipated [11] - The anticipated rise in funding prices for 2026 is expected to be around 1.5%, slightly higher than the current levels [12] Conclusion - The bond market strategy for 2026 will require a focus on trading and structural opportunities, with an emphasis on liquidity and the impact of regulatory changes on market behavior [20][21]

Q&A 如何看待上周同业存单的行情及其对未来利率走势的影响？ 上周同业存单的行情表现出明显的变化，主要体现在发行放量和情绪缓释两个 方面。首先，存单发行量显著增加，表明市场需求未受到提价影响。其次，流 动性改善和市场预期共振使得长端交易迎来一波行情。具体来看，一年期工行 存单价格在 1.7 附近见顶后，风险已明显缓释。尽管未来几个月存在净融资压 力，但需求端若能跟上，则整体风险扩散问题不大。此外，大行增量买入短期 国债也对短端利率品种产生积极影响，使得短期国债情绪有所缓解。 近期大行对于短期国债买入行为背后的原因是什么？ 固收 存单见顶，利率抢跑 20250609 摘要 市场预期共振推动长端利率下行，一年期工行存单价格见顶，风险缓释。 未来净融资压力存在，但需求端若能跟上，整体风险可控。大行增量买 入短期国债，缓解短端利率品种压力。 大行增量买入短期国债或为组合调整，应对 5 月被动配置压力及 6 月政 府债券发行规模缓解，平衡久期。此举受央行政策影响，也反映投资策 略调整，改善短端情绪。 未来流动性管理和资金价格中枢有望超预期宽松，基于央行超额流动性 投放及银行负债端修复。预计 6 月或三季度有再贷款和 P ...