固收-金融数据背后，降息预期和机构行为的长期变化 20251116 摘要 摊余成本法基金增配普信和商金，占比超七成，政金债配置比例显著下 降至 13.7%，主要因短端利率较低，机构寻求更高收益资产。 预计至 2026 年底，摊余成本法基金剩余到期规模达 7,444 亿元，对普 信和商金的增量资金需求预计分别为 2002 亿和 1,362 亿，市场需求显 著增加。 机构偏好高等级央国企产业债及头部城商行金融债，如诚通、国新、平 安银行等，信用风险较低，主要关注估值波动。 社融信贷增速放缓，直接融资占比提升，央行强调结构优化而非快速刺 激，中长期或打开利率震荡区间下限，短期不利于降息预期。 央行或更关注政府杠杆和国债发行成本，债市赔率预期转为风险可控， 旨在理顺利率比价关系，避免金融机构内卷式竞争。 信贷增速放缓可能导致银行资产负债表收缩，但历史数据显示，银行扩 张速度放缓时期，10 年期国债与 1 年期国债及 1 年存单利差有所回升， 预计 2026 年 1-2 季度存单利率可能降至 1.5%。 转债市场面临供需压力，新增供给相对较小，但正股表现强势及资金流 入形成正循环，估值难以长期压缩，整体下行空间有限，上 ...

Core Insights - The recent financial data indicates a "deposit migration" trend, with a notable decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits, which is linked to the performance of the domestic stock market [1][3][4] Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In August, household deposits decreased by 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 600 billion yuan, marking two consecutive months of negative growth [1][3] - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, showing a significant year-on-year increase despite a decline compared to the previous month [1][2] - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to -2.8%, the lowest since June 2021, indicating enhanced liquidity and a shift towards more active funds [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in non-bank deposits is interpreted as a signal of residents moving funds into capital markets, particularly as the stock market shows strong performance [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the current trend of "deposit migration" is likely to continue, driven by lower deposit interest rates and a strong equity market [5][7] - The capital market's performance is seen as a key factor attracting funds from bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Despite the increase in non-bank deposits, there remains a cautious attitude among residents regarding future economic conditions, reflected in a strong preference for saving over borrowing [8][9] - The household sector is exhibiting a trend of deleveraging, with a significant reduction in loan growth compared to deposits [8][9] - Government policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending are becoming increasingly important, with measures such as consumption vouchers and interest subsidies for personal loans being implemented [10]