经济观察网 李晓丹 实习生 朱嫡 陈菲儿 王明飞/文 "反内卷"成为影响经济运行的重要因素，2025年11月的部分经济数据出现波动，既反映出在遏制低效同质 化竞争、推动产业结构优化过程中，行业价格与利润格局的阶段性调整，也凸显当前内需修复节奏不均，经济预期有待巩固的阶段性压力。 面对这一情况，政策需要继续发力：投资端聚焦补短板、增后劲，消费端着力提信心、扩内需，稳步提升居民收入信心与就业预期，形成投资与消费共同驱 动的"稳增长"格局。 宏观数据显示，2025年11月CPI同比增速由上月的0.2%上升至0.7%；PPI从-2.1%下降至-2.2%；制造业PMI由50.0%下跌至49.2%；固投从-1.7%下降至-2.6%； 11月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，月末贷款余额较上月回落约0.1个百分点；M2同比增速下降为8.0%。 由《经济观察报》发起的"经济观察报月度观察"，每月发布一次。本次共有11家机构参与月度宏观数据预测。 CPI：同比明显上涨 CPI公布值（同比）：0.7% 前值：0.2% CPI预测值（同比）：0.7% 国信证券宏观分析师郝大明点评：11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，比10月提高0.5个百分点 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, multiple domestic economic indicators softened, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy and suppressing the stock market. The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, reflecting a prudent monetary policy with a low possibility of significant reserve - requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts this year. Currently, the market is in a vacuum period of macro - data, performance, and policies. Without clear trading guidance, the market is expected to move randomly, and stock indices will maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **IF Contracts**: The latest price of the IF (CSI 300) main contract (2512) is 4435.2, down 5.6 from the previous period; the next - main contract (2603) is 4406.0, down 3.8. The net position of the top 20 in IF is - 24,375.00, down 65.0. The basis of the IF main contract is - 12.9, up 12.4 [2]. - **IH Contracts**: The latest price of the IH (SSE 50) main contract (2512) is 2944.4, down 5.8; the next - main contract (2603) is 2941.4, down 4.0. The net position of the top 20 in IH is - 10,799.00, down 60.0. The basis of the IH main contract is - 6.2, up 3.3 [2]. - **IC Contracts**: The latest price of the IC (CSI 500) main contract (2512) is 6827.6, up 37.4; the next - main contract (2603) is 6666.8, up 46.6. The net position of the top 20 in IC is - 23,171.00, down 630.0. The basis of the IC main contract is - 41.4, up 6.0 [2]. - **IM Contracts**: The latest price of the IM (CSI 1000) main contract (2512) is 7095.2, up 59.0; the next - main contract (2603) is 6886.0, up 67.0. The net position of the top 20 in IM is - 35,140.00, down 1776.0. The basis of the IM main contract is - 61.2, down 11.7 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, IM - IC, etc. for the current - month contracts have shown different degrees of increase. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread is 1490.8, up 8.8 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume is 17,403.50 billion yuan, down 2432.49 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 24,614.50 billion yuan, down 302.53 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 2334.02 billion yuan, up 413.48 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks is 77.61%, up 71.17 percentage points. Shibor is 1.316%, down 0.004 percentage points. IO at - the - money call option closing price is 75.60, down 11.80; the implied volatility is 16.23%, down 2.33 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares is 7.30, up 5.40; the technical aspect is 7.80, up 7.20; the capital aspect is 6.80, up 3.60 [2]. 3.4 Industry News - A - share major indices generally rose at the close. The three major indices opened higher and then declined in the morning, and rebounded after hitting the bottom in the afternoon. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.31%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly. Over 4200 stocks in the whole market rose. Most industry sectors rose, with national defense and military industry and media sectors strengthening significantly, while petroleum and petrochemical, and coal sectors leading the decline [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Focus On - November 25, 21:30: US September PPI, core PPI, retail sales. - November 26, 21:30: US November 22 weekly initial jobless claims. - November 26, 23:00: US October PCE, core PCE. - November 27, 9:30: China's October industrial enterprise profits above designated size. - November 30, 9:30: China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share three - quarterly reports performed well, providing bottom support for the market. However, multiple economic indicators in October showed weakness, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy and putting pressure on the stock market. After the disclosure of the A - share three - quarterly reports and with no major domestic meetings this month, and after the release of macro - economic data, the market will enter a vacuum period of macro - data, performance, and policies. In the absence of clear trading guidance, the market is expected to move randomly, and stock index futures will remain volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2512) was at 4581.4, down 41.0; the IH main contract (2512) was at 3009.2, down 34.0 [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: Most spreads increased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread which was 1581.8, up 1.8; the IC - IF monthly contract spread was 2620.0, up 26.0 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal - Monthly Spreads**: Some spreads decreased, like the IF seasonal - monthly spread was - 43.4, down 1.8; some increased, such as the IH seasonal - monthly spread which was - 6.6, up 1.6 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 23,624.00, down 1014.0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Spot Index Prices**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was at 4598.05, down 30.1; the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 3012.1, down 26.4; the CSI 500 was at 7235.4, down 0.1; the CSI 1000 was at 7523.1, up 20.3 [2]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 16.6, up 11.1 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: A - share trading volume was 19,303.21 billion yuan, down 500.61 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 24,927.04 billion yuan, down 138.30 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume was 2098.22 billion yuan, down 155.99 billion yuan; the repurchase balance was - 1199.0 billion yuan, up 10830.0 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 47.43%, up 11.44%; the Shibor was 1.508%, up 0.145% [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Wind Market Analysis**: The overall A - share score was 4.70, up 1.00; the technical analysis score was 4.70, up 1.20; the capital analysis score was 4.60, up 0.70 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Social consumer goods retail sales in October were 46291 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October, it was 412169 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. From January to October, national fixed - asset investment was 408914 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 9.6% year - on - year. In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43 [2]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of October, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first 10 months was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; the M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On November 20 at 9:00, China's 1 - year and 5 - year LPR will be released. On November 20 at 21:30, the US September non - farm payrolls data, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate will be released [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.5% in October 2025, down from 8.7% in September 2025, indicating weakened credit demand from the real economy [3][4] - New RMB loans in October 2025 amounted to 0.22 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the 0.50 trillion yuan recorded in October 2024, reflecting a decrease in both corporate and household loan demand [3][4] - The report suggests that the current financial data indicates a temporary reduction in fiscal support for the real economy, with improvements in credit demand requiring further policy support [4] Financial Data Analysis - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing has decreased, attributed to weak credit demand from the real sector and a high base effect from last year's government bond net financing [4][5] - Government bond net financing has slowed down, with the Ministry of Finance indicating a reduction in local government bond issuance limits, which may lead to concentrated issuance in November and December [4][8] - Corporate short-term loans and new loans have weakened, with some short-term loans being replaced by bill financing, indicating a shift in corporate financing strategies [4][10] Household Financing Trends - Household short-term and long-term loans have both declined, driven by weak consumer sentiment and housing demand, particularly due to a cooling real estate market [4][16] - The report notes that the overall household financing demand remains subdued, necessitating stronger fiscal and monetary policy support to stimulate growth [4][28] Market Dynamics - The report observes a continued trend of household deposits moving into the equity market, with the balance of margin financing in the A-share market increasing, suggesting a recovery in market sentiment [4][29] - The M1 growth rate has decreased, while the M1-M2 spread has expanded, indicating a weakening correlation between these metrics and economic activity, with a stronger link to equity market performance [4][33][35] - The report emphasizes that the current state of the bond market is characterized by uncertainty, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8% and limited short-term downward potential [4][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a continuation of deposit migration, with the bond market entering a waiting period as financial data for October shows a decline in social financing growth and weaker credit demand from the real economy [1][2][6] - In October 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 0.22 trillion yuan, a decrease from 0.50 trillion yuan in October 2024, while new social financing was 0.815 trillion yuan compared to 1.41 trillion yuan in the previous year [1][2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.5%, slightly down from 8.7% in September 2025, and M2 growth was 8.2%, down from 8.4% in the previous month [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in social financing growth is attributed to weak credit demand from the real sector and a high base effect from last year's government bond net financing [2][6] - Government bond net financing decreased in October, with the Ministry of Finance indicating a reduction in local government bond issuance limits, suggesting that new local bonds may be issued in November and December [2][10] - The report notes that corporate short-term loans and new short-term loans have weakened, with some short-term loans being replaced by bill financing, indicating a shift in corporate financing behavior [2][8] Group 3 - The report highlights that the broad deposit inflow from residents into the market continues, with non-bank deposits rising to seasonal highs, reflecting increased market activity and a recovery in the profitability of investments [2][25] - The M1 growth rate has declined, and the M1-M2 spread has expanded, indicating a weakening correlation between M1, M2, and economic activity, while showing a stronger correlation with equity market performance [2][29][32] - The bond market is currently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the recent central bank actions and weakening fundamentals [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of credit and financing in October, highlighting the growth in broad money supply (M2) and social financing scale, as well as the impact of government bond issuance on these metrics [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary and Financing Data - As of the end of October, the broad money (M2) balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2]. - The social financing scale stood at 437.72 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, also 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [2]. - From January to October, the incremental social financing was 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of government bonds, including treasury bonds and special refinancing bonds, has accelerated, significantly supporting the growth of social financing [3][4]. - In the first ten months of the year, the cumulative issuance of government bonds was approximately 22 trillion yuan, nearly 4 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4]. - The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is expected to increase from 1 trillion yuan last year to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, indicating fiscal support for economic growth [4]. Group 3: Changes in Financing Structure - The structure of social financing is gradually changing, with non-loan financing methods accounting for over half of the incremental social financing this year [6]. - In the first ten months, the increase in RMB loans was 14.52 trillion yuan, which is 1.16 trillion yuan less than the previous year, while net financing from corporate bonds was 1.82 trillion yuan, up by 1.36 billion yuan [6]. - The balance of RMB loans reached 270.61 trillion yuan by the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and inclusive small and micro loans grew by 11.6% [8]. Group 4: Credit Structure Optimization - The increase in government bonds is seen as a short-term substitute for loans, aimed at supporting major projects and national strategies to boost demand and stabilize the economy [8]. - The leverage ratio of the government sector increased by 8.8 percentage points to 67.5% year-on-year, while the leverage ratios of non-financial enterprises and households saw slight changes [8]. - The ongoing changes in credit structure reflect the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, with a focus on supporting high-quality economic development [9]. Group 5: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - M2 and social financing growth rates remain above 8%, providing a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [10]. - The narrow money (M1) balance was 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, indicating improved business activity and consumer demand [10]. - While there is still room for monetary policy adjustments, the marginal efficiency has declined, necessitating a balanced approach to maintain strong support for the real economy [10].

Core Insights - October data shows that despite being a traditional low month for credit, the performance remains a focus for the market [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The total social financing stock was 437.72 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, also higher than the previous year's growth rate [1] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating a continued decline in financing costs [1] Financing Growth - The rapid issuance of government bonds, including treasury and special refinancing bonds, has significantly supported the growth of social financing [2] - From January to October, the cumulative issuance of government bonds reached about 22 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 4 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is expected to rise from 1 trillion yuan last year to 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting fiscal support for economic growth [2] Loan and Financing Structure - In the first ten months, the increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.52 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - The net financing from corporate bonds was 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year, while government bonds contributed 11.95 trillion yuan, up by 3.72 trillion yuan [3] - The structure of loans is evolving, with a notable increase in inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing [4] Economic Transition - The shift in growth drivers from traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate to emerging fields such as technology and green economy is reflected in changes in loan structures [5] - Experts suggest that as the economy transitions to high-quality development, the growth rate of financial totals may naturally decline, aligning with the overall economic transformation [5] Monetary Policy Environment - The M2 and social financing growth rates remain above 8%, providing a conducive monetary environment for economic recovery [6] - The M1 balance reached 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, indicating increased business activity and consumer demand [6] - While there is still room for monetary policy adjustments, the marginal efficiency has decreased, necessitating careful management of monetary conditions to avoid negative effects [6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, showing a significant recovery from a low of -3.3% in September of the previous year, marking a rebound of 9.5 percentage points [1] - The M1-M2 spread was -2% at the end of October, slightly fluctuating from -1.2% in the previous month, but narrowing by 8.1 percentage points compared to September of last year, indicating a shift towards more funds being converted into demand deposits [1] Monetary Supply Analysis - M2 balance at the end of October was 335.13 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [1] - M1 balance at the end of October was 112 trillion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, recovering from a low of -3.3% in September of the previous year [1] - The M1-M2 spread was -2%, indicating a positive trend in the conversion of funds to demand deposits [1] Economic Activity Indicators - The increase in M1 suggests heightened business activity and a recovery in personal investment and consumption demand [1] - The narrowing of the M1-M2 spread reflects a more active economic environment, with businesses and consumers showing signs of increased financial engagement [1]

Core Insights - As of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, showing a significant recovery from a low of -3.3% in September of the previous year, marking a rebound of 9.5 percentage points [1] - The M1-M2 spread was -2% at the end of October, slightly fluctuating from -1.2% in the previous month, but narrowing by 8.1 percentage points compared to September of the previous year, indicating a shift towards more funds being converted into demand deposits [1] Monetary Supply Analysis - The growth in M2 at 8.2% suggests a stable increase in the overall money supply, which may support economic activities [1] - The recovery in M1 growth to 6.2% indicates improved liquidity and a potential increase in business operations and consumer spending [1] - The narrowing of the M1-M2 spread reflects a positive trend in the conversion of funds into more liquid forms, signaling enhanced economic activity and consumer confidence [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rubber sector has sufficient supply and strong expectations for consumption growth. The state of ample natural rubber supply and strong consumption growth expectations continues compared to the September report. On the supply side, Thai rubber prices are resilient but show a widening year - on - year decline, and the cup - to - cup price difference indicates sufficient supply. On the consumption side, global auto sales and domestic tire production show marginal increases. In terms of expectations, key macro data is strengthening [5][6]. - In October, synthetic rubber was extremely weak, and the BR - RU spread widened. The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber increased, and the cumulative production in the past 12 months also increased, indicating sufficient supply [7]. - The fundamentals of the rubber sector are relatively strong [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Supply Global Data - Climate - Analyzed the ENSO index and its impact on RU unilateral, including ENSO index, its indexation for RU unilateral, and the influence on RU spot and futures prices. Also studied the impact of El Niño and Southern Oscillation on the spreads of smoke - sheet - RU and BR - RU [17][25][37]. Global Data - Commodity Valuation - Studied the relationship between crude oil, gold prices and rubber prices, including the impact of the prices of crude oil, Brent crude oil, and gold on RU unilateral, BR - RU spread, and smoke - sheet - RU spread [45]. 2. Micro Supply Global Data - Absolute Price - Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, last - month, and last - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [65]. Overseas Data - **ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of ANRPC natural rubber and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [68][72]. - **Thai Natural Rubber Industry**: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, glue and cup - rubber prices, the spread between smoke - sheet rubber and standard rubber, the inventory and shipment of rubber products, and the export of smoke - sheet rubber, and their impacts on RU unilateral, smoke - sheet - RU spread, and BR - RU spread [78][93][110][120]. - **Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. Domestic Data - Not detailed in the summary part of the given content, but includes aspects such as China's rubber imports, production, apparent consumption, domestic glue products, and the supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber [29]. 3. Trade Circulation Global Data - Analyzed the balance sheets of the six major rubber - producing countries in Southeast Asia [45]. Overseas Data - Studied international trade, Japanese rubber inventory, Malaysian natural rubber retail inventory, Southeast Asian standard rubber processing profit, and overseas rubber and plastic machinery [46].