| | 11/25 21:30 美国9月PPI、核心PPI、零售销售 | | --- | --- | | | 11/26 21:30 美国11月22日当周首次申请失业救济人数 | | | 11/26 23:00 美国10月PCE、核心PCE | | | 11/27 9:30 中国10月规模以上工业企业利润 | | 重点关注 | 11/30 9:30 中国11月制造业、非制造业、综合PMI | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 ...

股指期货全景日报 2025/11/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 IF主力合约（2512） | 4581.4 | -41.0↓ IF次主力合约（2511） | 4595.8 | 环比 -42.0↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2512） | 3009.2 | -34.0↓ IH次主力合约（2511） | 3014.0 | -32.4↓ | | | IC主力合约（2512） | 7143.4 | -35.6↓ IC次主力合约（2511） | 7215.8 | -33.6↓ | | | IM主力合约（2512） | 7394.4 | -19.4↓ IM次主力合约（2511） | 7495.4 | -11.6↓ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1581.8 | +1.8↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2620.0 | +26.0↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 279.6 | +19.2↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4201.8 | +27.8↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.5% in October 2025, down from 8.7% in September 2025, indicating weakened credit demand from the real economy [3][4] - New RMB loans in October 2025 amounted to 0.22 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the 0.50 trillion yuan recorded in October 2024, reflecting a decrease in both corporate and household loan demand [3][4] - The report suggests that the current financial data indicates a temporary reduction in fiscal support for the real economy, with improvements in credit demand requiring further policy support [4] Financial Data Analysis - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing has decreased, attributed to weak credit demand from the real sector and a high base effect from last year's government bond net financing [4][5] - Government bond net financing has slowed down, with the Ministry of Finance indicating a reduction in local government bond issuance limits, which may lead to concentrated issuance in November and December [4][8] - Corporate short-term loans and new loans have weakened, with some short-term loans being replaced by bill financing, indicating a shift in corporate financing strategies [4][10] Household Financing Trends - Household short-term and long-term loans have both declined, driven by weak consumer sentiment and housing demand, particularly due to a cooling real estate market [4][16] - The report notes that the overall household financing demand remains subdued, necessitating stronger fiscal and monetary policy support to stimulate growth [4][28] Market Dynamics - The report observes a continued trend of household deposits moving into the equity market, with the balance of margin financing in the A-share market increasing, suggesting a recovery in market sentiment [4][29] - The M1 growth rate has decreased, while the M1-M2 spread has expanded, indicating a weakening correlation between these metrics and economic activity, with a stronger link to equity market performance [4][33][35] - The report emphasizes that the current state of the bond market is characterized by uncertainty, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8% and limited short-term downward potential [4][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a continuation of deposit migration, with the bond market entering a waiting period as financial data for October shows a decline in social financing growth and weaker credit demand from the real economy [1][2][6] - In October 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 0.22 trillion yuan, a decrease from 0.50 trillion yuan in October 2024, while new social financing was 0.815 trillion yuan compared to 1.41 trillion yuan in the previous year [1][2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.5%, slightly down from 8.7% in September 2025, and M2 growth was 8.2%, down from 8.4% in the previous month [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in social financing growth is attributed to weak credit demand from the real sector and a high base effect from last year's government bond net financing [2][6] - Government bond net financing decreased in October, with the Ministry of Finance indicating a reduction in local government bond issuance limits, suggesting that new local bonds may be issued in November and December [2][10] - The report notes that corporate short-term loans and new short-term loans have weakened, with some short-term loans being replaced by bill financing, indicating a shift in corporate financing behavior [2][8] Group 3 - The report highlights that the broad deposit inflow from residents into the market continues, with non-bank deposits rising to seasonal highs, reflecting increased market activity and a recovery in the profitability of investments [2][25] - The M1 growth rate has declined, and the M1-M2 spread has expanded, indicating a weakening correlation between M1, M2, and economic activity, while showing a stronger correlation with equity market performance [2][29][32] - The bond market is currently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the recent central bank actions and weakening fundamentals [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of credit and financing in October, highlighting the growth in broad money supply (M2) and social financing scale, as well as the impact of government bond issuance on these metrics [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary and Financing Data - As of the end of October, the broad money (M2) balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2]. - The social financing scale stood at 437.72 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, also 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [2]. - From January to October, the incremental social financing was 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of government bonds, including treasury bonds and special refinancing bonds, has accelerated, significantly supporting the growth of social financing [3][4]. - In the first ten months of the year, the cumulative issuance of government bonds was approximately 22 trillion yuan, nearly 4 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4]. - The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is expected to increase from 1 trillion yuan last year to 1.3 trillion yuan this year, indicating fiscal support for economic growth [4]. Group 3: Changes in Financing Structure - The structure of social financing is gradually changing, with non-loan financing methods accounting for over half of the incremental social financing this year [6]. - In the first ten months, the increase in RMB loans was 14.52 trillion yuan, which is 1.16 trillion yuan less than the previous year, while net financing from corporate bonds was 1.82 trillion yuan, up by 1.36 billion yuan [6]. - The balance of RMB loans reached 270.61 trillion yuan by the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and inclusive small and micro loans grew by 11.6% [8]. Group 4: Credit Structure Optimization - The increase in government bonds is seen as a short-term substitute for loans, aimed at supporting major projects and national strategies to boost demand and stabilize the economy [8]. - The leverage ratio of the government sector increased by 8.8 percentage points to 67.5% year-on-year, while the leverage ratios of non-financial enterprises and households saw slight changes [8]. - The ongoing changes in credit structure reflect the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, with a focus on supporting high-quality economic development [9]. Group 5: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - M2 and social financing growth rates remain above 8%, providing a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [10]. - The narrow money (M1) balance was 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, indicating improved business activity and consumer demand [10]. - While there is still room for monetary policy adjustments, the marginal efficiency has declined, necessitating a balanced approach to maintain strong support for the real economy [10].

Core Insights - October data shows that despite being a traditional low month for credit, the performance remains a focus for the market [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported that the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan at the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The total social financing stock was 437.72 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, also higher than the previous year's growth rate [1] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating a continued decline in financing costs [1] Financing Growth - The rapid issuance of government bonds, including treasury and special refinancing bonds, has significantly supported the growth of social financing [2] - From January to October, the cumulative issuance of government bonds reached about 22 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 4 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is expected to rise from 1 trillion yuan last year to 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting fiscal support for economic growth [2] Loan and Financing Structure - In the first ten months, the increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.52 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - The net financing from corporate bonds was 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year, while government bonds contributed 11.95 trillion yuan, up by 3.72 trillion yuan [3] - The structure of loans is evolving, with a notable increase in inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing [4] Economic Transition - The shift in growth drivers from traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate to emerging fields such as technology and green economy is reflected in changes in loan structures [5] - Experts suggest that as the economy transitions to high-quality development, the growth rate of financial totals may naturally decline, aligning with the overall economic transformation [5] Monetary Policy Environment - The M2 and social financing growth rates remain above 8%, providing a conducive monetary environment for economic recovery [6] - The M1 balance reached 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, indicating increased business activity and consumer demand [6] - While there is still room for monetary policy adjustments, the marginal efficiency has decreased, necessitating careful management of monetary conditions to avoid negative effects [6]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, showing a significant recovery from a low of -3.3% in September of the previous year, marking a rebound of 9.5 percentage points [1] - The M1-M2 spread was -2% at the end of October, slightly fluctuating from -1.2% in the previous month, but narrowing by 8.1 percentage points compared to September of last year, indicating a shift towards more funds being converted into demand deposits [1] Monetary Supply Analysis - M2 balance at the end of October was 335.13 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [1] - M1 balance at the end of October was 112 trillion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, recovering from a low of -3.3% in September of the previous year [1] - The M1-M2 spread was -2%, indicating a positive trend in the conversion of funds to demand deposits [1] Economic Activity Indicators - The increase in M1 suggests heightened business activity and a recovery in personal investment and consumption demand [1] - The narrowing of the M1-M2 spread reflects a more active economic environment, with businesses and consumers showing signs of increased financial engagement [1]

11月13日，央行发布最新数据显示，10月末，广义货币(M2)余额335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%。狭义货 币(M1)余额112万亿元，同比增长6.2%，较去年9月低点（-3.3%）回升9.5个百分点，较今年年内低点 （2月份0.1%）回升6.1个百分点。10月末，M1-M2剪刀差为-2%，较上月-1.2%略有波动，但仍较去年9 月收窄8.1个百分点，表明更多资金转化为活期存款，反映出企业生产经营活跃度提升、个人投资消费 需求回暖等积极信号。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rubber sector has sufficient supply and strong expectations for consumption growth. The state of ample natural rubber supply and strong consumption growth expectations continues compared to the September report. On the supply side, Thai rubber prices are resilient but show a widening year - on - year decline, and the cup - to - cup price difference indicates sufficient supply. On the consumption side, global auto sales and domestic tire production show marginal increases. In terms of expectations, key macro data is strengthening [5][6]. - In October, synthetic rubber was extremely weak, and the BR - RU spread widened. The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber increased, and the cumulative production in the past 12 months also increased, indicating sufficient supply [7]. - The fundamentals of the rubber sector are relatively strong [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Supply Global Data - Climate - Analyzed the ENSO index and its impact on RU unilateral, including ENSO index, its indexation for RU unilateral, and the influence on RU spot and futures prices. Also studied the impact of El Niño and Southern Oscillation on the spreads of smoke - sheet - RU and BR - RU [17][25][37]. Global Data - Commodity Valuation - Studied the relationship between crude oil, gold prices and rubber prices, including the impact of the prices of crude oil, Brent crude oil, and gold on RU unilateral, BR - RU spread, and smoke - sheet - RU spread [45]. 2. Micro Supply Global Data - Absolute Price - Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, last - month, and last - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [65]. Overseas Data - **ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of ANRPC natural rubber and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [68][72]. - **Thai Natural Rubber Industry**: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, glue and cup - rubber prices, the spread between smoke - sheet rubber and standard rubber, the inventory and shipment of rubber products, and the export of smoke - sheet rubber, and their impacts on RU unilateral, smoke - sheet - RU spread, and BR - RU spread [78][93][110][120]. - **Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. Domestic Data - Not detailed in the summary part of the given content, but includes aspects such as China's rubber imports, production, apparent consumption, domestic glue products, and the supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber [29]. 3. Trade Circulation Global Data - Analyzed the balance sheets of the six major rubber - producing countries in Southeast Asia [45]. Overseas Data - Studied international trade, Japanese rubber inventory, Malaysian natural rubber retail inventory, Southeast Asian standard rubber processing profit, and overseas rubber and plastic machinery [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the current economic situation, particularly focusing on CPI and PPI data, indicating a lack of inflation and a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [5][6][10] - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting weak consumer demand and manufacturing prices [3][5] - The article highlights the importance of M1 and M2 monetary supply data, with M2 at 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, and M1 at 113.15 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a narrowing M2-M1 gap [6][10] Group 2 - The narrowing of the M2-M1 gap suggests that M1 is growing faster, attributed to a decline in government bond prices, prompting individuals to withdraw funds from fixed-term investments back into demand deposits [9][10] - In September, household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, indicating a trend of funds returning to banks rather than remaining in investment accounts [10][11] - The article notes that the capital market's performance in September was lackluster, leading to a decrease in the "money-moving" phenomenon, as investors were not experiencing significant gains [11][13] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential for continued government intervention to stimulate the capital market and address the current economic stagnation, suggesting that the underlying logic for a bull market remains intact [15][19] - Upcoming key events, including trade negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings, are expected to influence market performance, with a cautious approach recommended until these events conclude [20][21] - The article concludes with a call for strategic asset allocation in anticipation of market movements following these critical events [22][23]