行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 30 日沪镍再度大幅上涨，主力最高触及 134480 元/吨，尾盘小幅回落报收于 132390，涨幅 3.86%，总持仓增加 1.8 万手至 34.6 万手。在前期印尼 RKAB 缩减 配额消息刺激之下，资金炒作情绪仍在升温，镍价波动幅度放大。而在镍价大幅 上涨带动下，产业链其他产品价格也在随之攀升，30 日 NPI 报价继续增加 2.5 ...

对于后市，广州期货评论表示，美国ADP数据意外下降，使投资者几乎完全确信美联储下周将降息，美 元指数大幅下挫，跌破99关口，提振整体有色。国内12月临近中央经济工作会议预计回归至对政策预期 的博弈。产业面，刚果（金）东部局势紧张仍引发供应担忧，但市场对此已有一定程度的定价，进一步 推升价格需要新的催化因素，短期谨慎持多。 （文华综合） 美国11月"小非农"创两年半来最大降幅，美联储降息预期进一步升温。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储观 察工具显示，美联储在12月FOMC会议上降息的概率高达89%。基本面暂无明显变化，国内锡矿供应仍 相对偏紧，缅甸佤邦处于复产初期，长期锡矿供应有一定宽松预期，短期供应恢复缓慢。印尼当地锡锭 出口已基本恢复常态化，11月从印尼交易所出口锡锭达6500多吨。近期非洲锡矿主产区刚果（金）东部 冲突升级，市场对供应链稳定性担忧加剧，物流运输风险上升。 需求端来看，11月上旬部分下游消费力度下滑较多，光伏需求维周期持正常水平，但11月排产继续维持 下滑预期，家电12月排产较11月下滑较多，消费水平基本接近尾声，需求恢复缓慢。下游企业反馈显 示，当前订单承接量下滑趋势显著，库存周转效率同步放 ...

Overview - The article discusses the deep analysis of a highly collectible set of the fourth edition of the Renminbi, which includes a complete set of all same-numbered notes in a premium edition, issued by the People's Bank of China, with a limited release of only 99 sets priced at 98,000 yuan [1][7]. Core Value Analysis - Historical significance and scarcity due to withdrawal from circulation: The fourth edition of the Renminbi represents a key historical transition in China's economy and has been officially withdrawn from circulation since 2018, leading to a decrease in its availability and an increase in value due to supply-demand dynamics [3][6]. - Same-numbered rarity: The set features notes with identical serial numbers, which are extremely rare and highly sought after by collectors, further enhancing its value [6]. - Rich variety and potential as "king of notes": The collection includes all nine denominations and 14 versions of the fourth edition, including rare 1980 versions of 50 yuan and 100 yuan, which are already valued over 10,000 yuan each [6][7]. - Top condition and authoritative certification: The notes have been rated 69 out of 70 by a professional grading agency, indicating excellent preservation, and come with a certification from the People's Bank of China, ensuring authenticity and limiting the risk of counterfeiting [5][7]. Investment and Collection Prospects - Hotspot for capital speculation: Recent trends indicate that certain denominations, such as the 2 yuan note, have gained significant attention, while the 1980 versions of 50 yuan and 100 yuan show strong appreciation potential [7]. - Long-term holding value: As a "closed currency type," the limited availability of the complete same-numbered set (only 99 sets) suggests that its value will likely increase over time, aligning with the principle that scarcity drives appreciation [7]. - Target audience: The collectible appeals to high-end collectors seeking extreme rarity and perfect condition, asset allocators looking for alternative investments to hedge against inflation, and history enthusiasts interested in the cultural significance of the notes [7].

Core Viewpoint - After a significant increase in stock price, major shareholders of Hotgen Biotech (688068.SH) plan to reduce their holdings to cash out [2][11]. Shareholder Reduction Plans - Shareholder Zhou Xin intends to reduce his holdings by no more than 1.94% of the company's total shares, equating to 180,000 shares, within three months [3][4]. - Zhou Xin currently holds 7.34% of Hotgen Biotech's shares, amounting to 680,660 shares [4]. - If the maximum reduction is executed at the closing price of 137.30 CNY per share on June 25, Zhou Xin could cash out approximately 247 million CNY [5][6]. Historical Context of Shareholder Reductions - Zhou Xin's planned reduction follows a similar pattern observed in 2021, where he and other shareholders executed high-level cash-outs after stock price surges [8][12]. - In 2021, Zhou Xin reduced his holdings from 10.35% to 8.48%, cashing out approximately 102 million CNY at prices ranging from 36.89 to 199.5 CNY per share [10]. Recent Performance and Financials - Hotgen Biotech's stock price has surged approximately fivefold from 23.08 CNY per share on September 23, 2024, to 137.30 CNY per share on June 25, 2024 [7]. - The company has experienced significant financial distress, reporting a loss of 191 million CNY in 2024 and a further loss of 24 million CNY in the first quarter of the same year [17][18]. - Revenue has declined sharply from 35.57 billion CNY in 2022 to 5.11 billion CNY in 2024, marking a decrease of 84.78% year-on-year [17]. Business Operations and Market Position - Hotgen Biotech specializes in in vitro diagnostics (IVD) and has seen fluctuating performance due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with revenues peaking at 5.14 billion CNY in 2020 [15][16]. - The company has been involved in the development of various COVID-19 testing products, which initially drove significant revenue growth [15]. - However, as the pandemic subsided, the company's revenue and net profit have sharply declined, leading to concerns about its future profitability [17][18]. Research and Development Trends - The company's R&D investment has been decreasing, with expenditures dropping from 191 million CNY in 2022 to 113 million CNY in 2024 [18]. - Despite the decline in financial performance, the company has invested in several innovative pharmaceutical companies, although these ventures have yet to yield profits [18].

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop of 5.90% on June 27, 2023, closing at $1,337.30 per ounce, despite a year-to-date increase of 47.93% [1][4][9] Group 1: Market Performance - Platinum has become one of the best-performing precious metals in the first half of the year, driven by investment overflow from rising gold prices, which increased by approximately 24% during the same period [4][5] - The price of platinum surged dramatically, with a cumulative increase of 42.49% from May 20 to June 26, 2023, reaching an intraday high of $1,435.22 per ounce on June 27 [6][9] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Platinum Investment Council reported a 10% year-on-year decline in global platinum supply to 45 tons in Q1 2023, while demand rose by 10% to 71 tons, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [6] - Investment demand for platinum surged by 28% quarter-on-quarter to 14 tons, with monetary demand increasing by 17% year-on-year to 2 tons [6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Risks - Industry insiders suggest that the recent price surge is driven by speculative trading and the push for platinum as a substitute for gold, with a cautionary note on potential volatility in the future [7][8] - Analysts express a cautious outlook on future price movements, indicating that the recent sharp increases and subsequent declines may lead to further fluctuations [8] Group 4: Market Behavior and Recovery - Despite the rising prices, the platinum recycling market remains subdued, with recovery prices around 200 yuan per gram, significantly lower than current market prices [5] - Retail sales of platinum jewelry are lagging behind gold, with consumers often preferring K-gold due to shorter processing times and similar pricing [5]

Core Viewpoint - Chengfei Integration (002190.SZ) has experienced a significant stock price surge, with a cumulative increase of 135.8% since May 7, 2023, driven by heightened market interest in the J-10CE fighter jet and its recent operational success [2][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Chengfei Integration's main business is focused on automotive parts and tooling, with only 1.74% of its revenue coming from aviation parts in 2024 [4][3]. - The company has faced challenges in its aviation parts business, with a 57.8% year-on-year decline in revenue to 0.41 billion yuan due to delayed customer demand and increased market competition [4][3]. - The gross margin for Chengfei Integration's aviation parts business was -57.41% in 2024, a significant drop of 75.22 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite Chengfei Integration's low "aviation content," it has attracted speculative trading due to its smaller market capitalization of 60 billion yuan compared to AVIC Chengfei's 158.5 billion yuan [7][8]. - The stock price of Chengfei Integration has been more volatile, with 83.28% of trades conducted by individual investors, compared to a more institutional investor base for AVIC Chengfei [9][8]. - The trading rules allow for a 10% daily price limit for Chengfei Integration, making it easier for the stock to trend upwards compared to AVIC Chengfei, which has a 20% limit [8][7].