中国工商银行（亚洲） 东南亚研究中心 李卢霞 黄斯佳 周文敏 杨妍 研 究 报 告 发达经济体超长债利率大幅波动 的缘由及影响 阅读摘要 2025 年 9 月 2 日，主要发达经济体超长债利率快速走升引发市场关 注，市场忧虑情绪蔓延至欧洲的汇市和股市。 从发达经济体超长债利率大幅波动的几个可能原因来看，一是经济 面，宽财政、高杠杆，债务可持续性担忧持续发酵；叠加政局不稳、 避险情绪升温；二是政策面，受关税摩擦等影响，通胀预期走升，掣 肘降息前景，恶化财政负担形成负循环；三是资金面，公司债发债潮 冲击、TGA 账户重建等导致债券供给阶段性增加，但长期资金配置需 求疲弱。 往后看，短期美国超长债利率或高位回落，英、法、日、德预计仍有 阶段性冲高可能，但持续大幅上行空间料有限。中长期期限溢价或维 持高位，长端利率存在中枢抬升的风险。 欢迎扫码关注 工银亚洲研究 注：本报告的预测及建议只作为一般的市场评论，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。 权，不得以任何形式修改、复制、刊登、引用或向其他人分发。 本 1、经济面：宽财政、高杠杆，债务可持续性担忧持续 发酵；叠加政局不稳、避险情绪升温。 本轮发达经济体超长债利率逆势走升的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) reaching a historical high, driven by policy easing expectations and strong market demand for bank fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has increased by 0.18%, marking its third consecutive rise [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has risen by 2.67%, and by 6.98% over the last 20 days, with a year-to-date increase of 26.53% [1] - The trading volume is active, with a transaction amount of approximately 26 million, and the fund's size has grown by 590.69% this year, exceeding 700 million, setting a new historical high [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - The growth in the banking sector is attributed to a combination of liquidity easing and valuation recovery logic, with high dividend stocks expected to maintain strong performance [1] - The index for the Bank AH Preferred ETF had a dividend yield of 5.92% as of the end of May, reflecting a strategy of selecting undervalued stocks [1] - Investors can access this ETF through linked funds (Class A: 016572; Class C: 016573) [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - In the short term, liquidity easing and valuation recovery will likely dominate the sector's performance [1] - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to economic transformation and industry differentiation [1]