2025年初，科创综指正式发布，截至2025年12月31日，科创综指全年上涨46.3%。站在宏观与政策高 度，2026年科创综指的核心支撑力是什么？东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲认为，政策支持、企业盈利改 善、资金配置需求是2026年科创综指的核心支撑力。 2025年初，科创综指正式发布，截至2025年12月31日，科创综指全年上涨46.3%。站在宏观与政策高 度，2026年科创综指的核心支撑力是什么？东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲认为，政策支持、企业盈利改 善、资金配置需求是2026年科创综指的核心支撑力。 ...

在市场化因素背后，黄金做多的"买手"被越来越多人关注——央行购金。中信建投证券认为，央行购金 行为可以为黄金价格中枢提供支撑，而动机包括商业化头寸管理、防备极端情形和应对货币秩序重塑 等： 一是，与普通黄金持有者一样，央行同样也需要管理资产投资，在黄金价格波动周期中切换资产配置， 例如美债和黄金之间的比例调整，从而达到资产收益最优。 12月24日，伦敦现货黄金价格历史首次突破每盎司4500美元，凌厉的涨势再次夺得市场的目光。在短期 波动与长期机遇交织下，这一备受全球资本青睐的资产，将如何演绎后续行情？请看机构最新研判。 黄金近期呈现出"震荡抬升"的中期运行特征，核心源于宏观环境、政策预期与资金配置的三重逻辑支 撑。 第一，美国宏观经济与就业数据弱化，强化避险与降息预期。美国经济呈现放缓迹象，就业与通胀数据 整体显示经济动能放缓，实际利率小幅下行，市场对美国货币政策进一步转紧的担忧明显下降。尽管短 期内降息节奏仍存在不确定性，但"难以再度明显收紧"的政策环境，为黄金价格提供了重要的底部支 撑。同时，由于部分经济数据受到统计扰动与政府停摆等因素影响，其参考价值下降，政策判断的不确 定性反而强化了黄金的避险与对冲属 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the ultra - long - term US bond yields may decline from their highs, while those of the UK, France, Japan, and Germany are expected to have potential for phased spikes, but the room for continuous and significant upward movement is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the term premium may remain high, and there is a risk of a central increase in long - term yields [2][23]. - The foundation for the upward trend of Chinese asset prices is solid, and they are expected to further attract diversified capital allocation [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Review of Sharp Fluctuations in Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies - On September 2, 2025, the ultra - long - term bond yields of major developed economies rose rapidly. The 30 - year UK government bond yield reached 5.752%, the highest since 1998; Germany and France's 30 - year government bond yields reached 3.443% and 4.523% respectively, the highest since 2011 and 2009; the 30 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 3.302%, a record high; the 30 - year US government bond yield approached 5%. Market concerns spread to the European foreign exchange and stock markets. As of September 12, except for the impact of the resignation of Ishiba Shigeru on Japanese bond yields, the ultra - long - term bond yields of the UK, France, and Germany declined slightly [4]. - Since the end of the interest - rate hike cycle in the second half of 2023, the short - term government bond yields of major European and American economies have declined from their highs and accelerated their decline after the start of the interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of 2024. In contrast, the ultra - long - term government bond yields have shown a fluctuating upward trend. As of September 12, 2025, the average 2 - year government bond yields of G7 countries (except Japan) decreased by more than 31BP, while the 30 - year government bond yields increased by an average of 42BP [5]. 3.2 Reasons for Sharp Fluctuations in Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies - **Economic Aspect**: Loose fiscal policies, high leverage, and continuous fermentation of concerns about debt sustainability, combined with political instability and rising risk - aversion sentiment. For example, in the UK, fiscal difficulties have continuously disturbed the market; in France, it is difficult to promote fiscal discipline rectification, and the government changes frequently; in Germany, although the market responds positively to fiscal expansion, the "debt brake" increases concerns; in Japan, the resignation of the prime minister and concerns about fiscal easing have increased; in the US, the pressure of fiscal interest payments has increased, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is facing challenges [6][10]. - **Policy Aspect**: Affected by tariff frictions, inflation expectations have risen, restricting the prospects of interest - rate cuts and worsening the fiscal burden, forming a negative cycle. Since April 2025, the inflation levels of major economies have marginally rebounded, and central bank monetary policy decisions are facing dilemmas [15]. - **Funding Aspect**: The wave of corporate bond issuance and the reconstruction of the TGA account have led to a phased increase in bond supply, but the demand for long - term capital allocation is weak. In September, the bond issuance volume in Europe reached a record high, and the US Treasury plans to increase the TGA account balance. At the same time, the sharp rise and large fluctuations in ultra - long - term bond yields have reduced the enthusiasm of long - term funds such as insurance for allocation [20]. 3.3 Outlook for the Future Trends of Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies and Their Possible Impact on Chinese Asset Prices - **Outlook for the Future Trends of Ultra - long - term Bond Yields of Developed Economies** - **Short - term**: The ultra - long - term US bond yields may decline from their highs. The short - term supply pressure of US bonds is generally controllable, and the market expects the Fed to restart interest - rate cuts in September. In Europe and Japan, concerns about fiscal sustainability are still fermenting, and political adjustments increase the risk of rising ultra - long - term bond yields. However, the term spreads of some economies' government bonds are at relatively high historical levels, and policy intervention may limit the continuous and significant upward momentum [23][27]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The term premium may remain high, and there is a risk of a central increase in long - term yields. Global economic growth momentum is under pressure, and countries' fiscal expansion efforts are increasing, so the term spreads are expected to remain high [30]. - **Possible Impact on Chinese Asset Prices**: The Chinese equity market has been warming up since September 2024, with significant increases in major indices. In the bond market, the increases in 10Y and 30Y government bond yields are relatively small compared to developed economies. The RMB exchange rate has been rising steadily. The cultivation of new productive forces, the release of endogenous consumption growth momentum, a stable interest - rate and exchange - rate environment, and relatively low capital market valuations are expected to attract continuous inflows of diversified capital [31].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) reaching a historical high, driven by policy easing expectations and strong market demand for bank fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has increased by 0.18%, marking its third consecutive rise [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has risen by 2.67%, and by 6.98% over the last 20 days, with a year-to-date increase of 26.53% [1] - The trading volume is active, with a transaction amount of approximately 26 million, and the fund's size has grown by 590.69% this year, exceeding 700 million, setting a new historical high [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - The growth in the banking sector is attributed to a combination of liquidity easing and valuation recovery logic, with high dividend stocks expected to maintain strong performance [1] - The index for the Bank AH Preferred ETF had a dividend yield of 5.92% as of the end of May, reflecting a strategy of selecting undervalued stocks [1] - Investors can access this ETF through linked funds (Class A: 016572; Class C: 016573) [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - In the short term, liquidity easing and valuation recovery will likely dominate the sector's performance [1] - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to economic transformation and industry differentiation [1]