1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Copper: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: ★, expected to rebound, recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [1] - Lead: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: ★, price stabilizing [1] - Aluminum: ★★, price trending stronger [1] - Nickel: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold, silver, and copper are supported by multiple factors and are recommended for long - term strategic allocation and short - term long positions. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook in the long term, suitable for short - selling on rebounds. Other metals also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold has support due to short - term geopolitical variables and long - term global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: US consumer confidence data is weak, economic growth is downgraded, and major central banks will announce interest rate decisions. Gold may break through to new highs in the short term and enter a long - term bull market. Silver has strong fundamentals with positive policies, high demand, and limited supply [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions for gold and silver are recommended. Gold should be monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver has support around 9800. Long - term upward trends for both remain unchanged [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and social inventory is at a low level, resulting in a tight balance between supply and demand throughout the year [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the expected Fed interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand factors, it is recommended to hold long positions in copper. Long - term optimism is maintained due to strategic resource status and green demand [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season, but downstream purchases are based on rigid needs [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the Fed is likely to cut interest rates and LME zinc is strong, more macro - micro resonance is needed for further upward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rebound, while alumina was under pressure [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production increased slightly in August, and inventory decreased. The demand side shows a peak - season effect. For alumina, bauxite supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise start - up rates [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized and rebounded, and stainless steel showed a slight rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is a supply - demand differentiation within the domestic nickel industry chain, with high pressure on refined nickel supply and tightness in the nickel sulfate segment. For stainless steel, inventory is decreasing, but there is pressure on terminal digestion [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take small long positions in nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high with a slight increase [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply continues to increase, while terminal demand is strong. Total inventory is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom, resulting in short - term wide - range oscillation [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see within the range of [70700 - 72100] [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and the critical economic data releases that could influence market trends in the near future [1][4]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Talks - U.S. and China held constructive discussions on economic relations and macroeconomic policies, reaffirming previous agreements [2][3]. - The talks resulted in a consensus to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days, which is seen as a positive development [3]. Group 2: Upcoming Economic Data - A series of important U.S. economic data releases, including Q2 GDP and non-farm payrolls, are expected to set the market tone for the remainder of the year [4][8]. - The Atlanta Fed predicts a Q2 GDP annualized growth rate of approximately 2.9%, primarily due to a decline in imports [8]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with market focus on potential divergences among policymakers regarding interest rate decisions [9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - The upcoming "super week" is viewed as a significant test for Wall Street, especially after a substantial rebound in the stock market since April [5][6]. - The earnings reports from major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, which collectively have a market cap exceeding $11 trillion, are crucial for assessing market valuations [12][14]. - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.3% this year, with a forward P/E ratio of 22, raising concerns about the sustainability of current valuations [14]. Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The deadline for implementing "reciprocal" tariffs by the Trump administration is approaching, with market sentiment having improved due to recent trade agreements [15]. - Despite the positive sentiment, uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade policies remain, as highlighted by market strategists [16]. Group 5: Focus on China’s Economic Policies - The upcoming Chinese Politburo meeting is expected to address economic conditions and potential policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumption [7][16]. - Analysts anticipate discussions on the real estate sector's recovery, anti-competitive practices, and fiscal and monetary policy directions [16].