1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Copper: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: ★, expected to rebound, recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [1] - Lead: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: ★, price stabilizing [1] - Aluminum: ★★, price trending stronger [1] - Nickel: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold, silver, and copper are supported by multiple factors and are recommended for long - term strategic allocation and short - term long positions. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook in the long term, suitable for short - selling on rebounds. Other metals also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold has support due to short - term geopolitical variables and long - term global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: US consumer confidence data is weak, economic growth is downgraded, and major central banks will announce interest rate decisions. Gold may break through to new highs in the short term and enter a long - term bull market. Silver has strong fundamentals with positive policies, high demand, and limited supply [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions for gold and silver are recommended. Gold should be monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver has support around 9800. Long - term upward trends for both remain unchanged [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and social inventory is at a low level, resulting in a tight balance between supply and demand throughout the year [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the expected Fed interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand factors, it is recommended to hold long positions in copper. Long - term optimism is maintained due to strategic resource status and green demand [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season, but downstream purchases are based on rigid needs [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the Fed is likely to cut interest rates and LME zinc is strong, more macro - micro resonance is needed for further upward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rebound, while alumina was under pressure [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production increased slightly in August, and inventory decreased. The demand side shows a peak - season effect. For alumina, bauxite supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise start - up rates [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized and rebounded, and stainless steel showed a slight rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is a supply - demand differentiation within the domestic nickel industry chain, with high pressure on refined nickel supply and tightness in the nickel sulfate segment. For stainless steel, inventory is decreasing, but there is pressure on terminal digestion [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take small long positions in nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high with a slight increase [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply continues to increase, while terminal demand is strong. Total inventory is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom, resulting in short - term wide - range oscillation [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see within the range of [70700 - 72100] [22]

图片来源视觉中国 动图 由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美两国贸易谈判释放积极信号，但全球市场依然不能掉以轻心， 从本周三开始，全球市场将进入一个至关重要的72小时。 据新华社、央视新闻报道，当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞 典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。 双方就中美经贸关系、宏观经济政策等双方共同关心的经贸议题开展了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流，回顾并肯定了中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识和伦敦框架落 实情况。 根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 接下来，一系列密集的美国经济数据、科技巨头财报和关键的贸易政策节点将轮番登场，这些事件的叠加， 可能为年内剩余时间的市场走向定下基调。 市场考验将从周三拉开序幕，届时美国将公布第二季度GDP数据，数小时后美联储将公布利率决议。紧接着，微软、Meta、苹果和亚马逊等科技巨头将在周 三和周四盘后相继发布财报，而备受关注的美国7月非农就业报告则将在周五出炉。 这些事件中的任何一个都足以引发市场动荡。 在美股自4月低点大幅反弹、估值已然高企的背 ...