金银：超级周来袭，黄金有支撑 | | | 中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国数据均支持大幅降息，目前市场计价年底前三次降息，叠加地缘局势升级扩大， | | 黄金 | 多单持有 | 黄金支撑较强。中长期主要国家政策双宽松，地缘格局重塑，央行继续买黄金，黄 | | ★★ | | 金资产配置需求强烈。长期黄金继续战略配置。短期谨防衰退忧虑交易 | | | | 白银基本面强势，白银主要国家双宽政策积极，白银需求坚挺，供给端增量有限， | | 白银 | 多单持有 | 供需缺口明显，白银向上趋势不变。白银弹性大，黄金和铜强劲也对其做多情绪有 | | ★★ | | 支撑，本周关注超级央行周 | | 铜 | | 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，美就业数据疲软，美联储降息几乎板上钉钉，中东地缘风险 | | ★★ | 多单持有 | 激增，金九银十旺季预期叠加供应或边际收敛，建议铜前期多单继续持有，中长期， | | | | 对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪回暖，伦锌走强，带动沪锌重心上移，但继续上行需要更多宏微共 | | | 反弹 | 振， ...

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 美联储降息预期抬升，铜铝价格迎来上行 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/9/8-2025/9/12） 投资要点： hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 14 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：美联储 9 月降息预期抬升，铜价迎来上行。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅为 +1.22%/+1.15%/+2.30%。宏观方面，美国 2025 年非农就业基准数大幅下修，美联储 9 月降息预期提升；另一方面美国 8 月 CPI 数据并未大 ...

Group 1 - The US labor market is cooling, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with ADP employment data showing an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000 [1] - Initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000, exceeding the expected 230,000, marking the highest level since June [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, the first since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - The prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to rise due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and the anticipated interest rate cut, supported by increased liquidity and positive fiscal policies [2] - Recent increases in operating rates for aluminum processing and copper rod production indicate a clear trend of end-users replenishing inventories, suggesting a higher probability of rising commodity prices as the peak season approaches [2] - The performance of copper and aluminum companies has exceeded expectations, with valuations at low levels, indicating a potential for rapid recovery [2] Group 3 - The recent significant price increases in medium and heavy rare earth metals have prompted regulatory measures to cool down the market, while export controls have been relaxed, potentially accelerating imports and driving domestic prices up [2] - Rare earth stocks are expected to perform well in a strong market, with significant valuation elasticity, especially during critical US-China tariff negotiations, highlighting their strategic and economic value [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 4th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Iron ore, eggs, and lithium carbonate rose over 1%, while jujube and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) dropped over 3%, and fuel oil, SC crude oil, asphalt, and PTA fell over 2% [6]. - In terms of funds flow, CSI 500 2509, CSI 300 2509, and iron ore 2601 had capital inflows of 2.303 billion, 1.381 billion, and 863 million respectively, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.833 billion, 1.365 billion, and 957 million respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - Despite being in the off - season, domestic power grid investment boosts copper demand, but external demand will weaken in the second half of the year. With low inventory and expected supply tightness, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply remains loose, but production cuts are uncertain. With high inventory and upcoming demand in the peak season, prices are expected to be under pressure. The supply situation in Jiangxi needs attention [11]. Crude Oil - As the consumption peak season ends and OPEC+ plans to increase production, the supply - demand balance will weaken. It is recommended to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and potential sanctions on Russia [12][14]. Asphalt - Supply is expected to increase in September, and demand is restricted by various factors. With the weakening cost support from crude oil, asphalt futures are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. PP - Downstream开工率 is low, and new capacity is added. With the approaching peak season, there may be some improvement. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to global trade wars and anti - overcapacity policies [16][17]. Plastic -开工率 is at a medium level, and new capacity is added. Although the agricultural film market is improving, overall demand is weak. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to anti - overcapacity policies [18]. PVC - Supply is high, and demand is weak. With increased inventory and export pressure, PVC is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to anti - overcapacity policies [20]. Coking Coal - Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand has no obvious improvement. Coking coal is expected to be weak in the near term. Attention should be paid to the coking coal price cut process [21][22]. Urea - Supply is high, and demand is weak. With increased inventory, urea is expected to be weak. However, there may be some support from autumn fertilizers and off - season storage [23].

1. Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,415 yuan/ton (+10), the spot price in East China was 6,575 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China was 6,630 yuan/ton (-5). The basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis in North China was 215 yuan/ton (-15). The propylene operating rate was 75% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha was 190 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 89 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit was -159 yuan/ton (+25), and the in-plant inventory was 39,110 tons (-1,210) [1]. - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder was 41% (+1.22%), and the production profit was -260 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide was 73% (-1%), and the production profit was -120 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of n-butanol was 87% (-2%), and the production profit was -123 yuan/ton (+3); the operating rate of octanol was 94% (+2%), and the production profit was 154 yuan/ton (-47); the operating rate of acrylic acid was 69% (-1%), and the production profit was 157 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile was 74% (+1%), and the production profit was -682 yuan/ton (+30); the operating rate of phenol-ketone was 76% (-2%), and the production profit was -539 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 2. Market Analysis Supply side - Regarding the main PDH units, Hebei Haiwei's 500,000-ton unit was under maintenance, Wanhua Penglai had a restart expectation recently, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed, and Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued. The PDH operating rate decreased month-on-month, and the external supply of propylene tightened, which supported the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the continuous maintenance of the units [2]. Demand side - The operating rates of propylene downstream industries showed a mixed trend. The operating rate of PP increased month-on-month, mainly due to the support from the demand for PP downstream packaging films, injection molding, etc.; the operating rate of octanol continued to rise significantly, while the operating rates of n-butanol, PO, and phenol-ketone declined significantly. The downstream demand showed a slight recovery in the short term, but the overall profit of downstream products was average. The increase in the propylene spot price compressed the downstream profit, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. Attention should be paid to the stocking demand as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches [2]. Cost side - OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price may decline; the Saudi CP propane price in September was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and the landed price of the overseas propane swap also has a decline expectation [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; The expected tightening of PDH propylene supply supports the price, but the downstream profit is under pressure and may lack follow-up strength [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. 4. Report Catalog Summary I. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures like the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refineries [17][25][32]. III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39]. IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [42][44][47]. V. Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is expected to be slightly bullish in the near term. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak due to tariffs and the pre - empted demand from previous terminal exports, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is about to enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but the production reduction disturbances continue. With high inventory and weak downstream demand, the market sentiment is bearish [11]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Under the weak supply - demand situation, asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term due to limited cost support [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the downstream demand is currently weak, the upcoming peak season may bring some improvement. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15][16]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The improvement in the agricultural film industry may bring some boost, but the overall demand is still weak [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The fundamental pressure is large, and the export expectation is weak [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The coke price cut has been proposed but not yet implemented, and attention should be paid to the subsequent progress [20]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to fluctuate. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Indian urea import tender [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 2, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and container shipping to Europe rose over 3%. Lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.69%, IH rose 0.35%, IC fell 1.78%, and IM fell 1.86%. Among bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL all declined [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on September 2, funds flowed into IC 2509 (3.273 billion), IM 2509 (3.241 billion), and IF 2509 (2.523 billion). Funds flowed out of 30 - year treasury bond 2512 (453 million), Shanghai silver 2510 (438 million), and Shanghai gold 2510 (317 million) [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: In September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. The import of copper will increase, and the demand is affected by policies and previous exports. The price is expected to be slightly bullish [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price declined. The production in August increased, and the import in July decreased. The market was affected by the rumored resumption of a mine [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply - demand situation will weaken. The price may decline [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to increase in September. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at low - to - medium levels. The cost is affected by the oil price, and new capacity is being put into production. It is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased. The downstream demand is weak, but the agricultural film industry may bring some improvement. It is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is abundant, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline with fluctuations [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: An accident led to the shutdown of a coal mine. The import increased in July, and the supply - demand situation is becoming looser [20]. - **Urea**: The price is slightly bullish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PVC is affected by the sentiment of the black sector and follows the decline. The supply - side pressure is large in the long - term, the demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. The recommendation for PVC is to be cautiously bearish. [3][5] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable. Although the start - up rate has decreased, the demand has certain characteristics affected by transportation and season. The cost support exists, and the recommendation for caustic soda is to be cautiously bullish. [4][5] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4894 yuan/ton (-13); the East China basis is -224 yuan/ton (+3); the South China basis is -134 yuan/ton (+3). [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (-10); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (-10). [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is -64 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -399 yuan/ton (-176); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -628 yuan/ton (-36); the PVC export profit is 16.7 dollars/ton (+0.0). [1] - PVC inventory and start - up: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.2 tons (+0.6); the PVC social inventory is 52.2 tons (+1.4); the PVC calcium carbide - based start - up rate is 75.24% (-0.83%); the PVC ethylene - based start - up rate is 68.66% (-3.78%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 73.33% (-1.69%). [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (-2.9). [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2735 yuan/ton (+65); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -16 yuan/ton (-65). [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0). [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 784.5 yuan/ton (+40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 642.53 yuan/ton (-20.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1398.45 yuan/ton (-30.00). [2] - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.95 tons (-1.69); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (-0.22); the caustic soda start - up rate is 82.40% (-0.80%). [2] - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 85.58% (-0.20%); the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 64.73% (+0.87%); the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 86.02% (-0.20%). [2] Market Analysis PVC - Affected by the black sector, PVC follows the decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and cost factors. The supply - side pressure is large in the long - term due to new production capacity and more production resumptions. The demand is weak with low downstream start - up and weakening exports. The inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable. The start - up rate decreases due to maintenance. The demand is affected by transportation and season. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period. [4] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for a reverse spread when the PVC01 - 05 spread is high. - Inter - commodity spread: None. [5] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for a positive spread when the SH10 - 01 spread is low. - Inter - commodity spread: None. [5]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propylene industry is neutral [3]. Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the start - up rate of PDH decreased month - on - month due to the maintenance of new units, and the reduction of propylene external sales volume supported the price in the short term. On the demand side, the start - up rates of propylene downstream industries showed a differentiated trend, with a slight improvement in short - term downstream demand, but the increase in propylene spot prices compressed downstream profits, which might suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the decline in crude oil prices weakened cost support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [7][10][12]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][20][30]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, the production profit and start - up rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [41][43][46]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67].

Group 1: Copper Market - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, which is likely to support copper prices [1][2] - This week, the price changes for copper were -0.05% for LME copper, -0.47% for SHFE copper, and -0.62% for COMEX copper, indicating a period of fluctuation [2] - Domestic copper inventory has increased, with LME copper at 156,000 tons, COMEX copper at 271,000 short tons, and SHFE copper at 82,000 tons, showing a month-on-month change of +0.11%, +1.60%, and -5.4% respectively [2] - The downstream demand for copper has rebounded, with the copper rod operating rate at 71.8%, up by 1.19 percentage points [2] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend due to rising inventory levels [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 0.15% to 3,225 CNY/ton, while the main futures contract for alumina fell by 0.41% to 3,192 CNY/ton [3] - The operating capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina reached 91.57 million tons per year, with a weekly operating rate down by 0.2 percentage points to 83.0% due to routine maintenance [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices fell by 0.34% to 20,700 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 4,405 CNY/ton, up by 1.84% [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium salt prices are expected to rise due to seasonal demand, with carbonate lithium prices increasing by 1.45% to 84,000 CNY/ton [4][5] - The production of carbonate lithium this week was 19,000 tons, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month [5] - SMM weekly inventory for carbonate lithium is at 142,000 tons, down by 0.5% [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The import volume of cobalt raw materials has continued to decline, which may accelerate the digestion of raw material inventory, leading to potential price increases [5] - Domestic cobalt prices fell by 0.38% to 261,000 CNY/ton [5] - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to accelerate the reduction of cobalt raw material inventory, potentially leading to a tight supply situation in Q4 [5]

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