Core Viewpoint - The domestic lead market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with lead futures showing significant price movements and positive market sentiment driven by various factors including inventory levels and production rates [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 23, lead futures opened at 17,160.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 17,760.00 CNY, marking a 3.12% increase [1] - The lead market is characterized by a strong performance, with expectations for continued upward movement in the short term [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Lead ore port inventories have increased, while lead concentrate treatment charges (TC) have stabilized, maintaining high operating rates for primary lead smelting [1] - The supply of recycled lead is tightening, with a recovery in profits for recycled lead smelting, leading to increased weekly operating rates [1][2] - Domestic and foreign lead inventories are on the rise, indicating a slowdown in demand [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers are experiencing a decline in inventory levels, with battery factory stocks dropping to 19.7 days and dealer inventories to 39.7 days, alleviating pressure on finished goods [1] - Despite the traditional peak season for battery production, demand remains cautious, with a slow recovery observed in the overall market [2] - Emerging storage demand is showing positive trends, partially offsetting weaknesses in traditional demand sectors [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the PP market shows a slight recovery in downstream operating rates, but overall demand remains below expectations, leading to a recommendation to observe the market rather than engage in active investment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The operating rate of PP downstream has increased by 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%, which is still low compared to historical levels [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving has risen by 0.5 percentage points to 43.6%, with orders showing a slight increase, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] - As of September 23, the operating rate of PP enterprises has dropped to around 80% due to maintenance at facilities such as Zhongjing Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The inventory levels of petrochemical companies are at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years, with general destocking observed in September [1] - The recent drop in crude oil prices is attributed to a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a significant increase in U.S. distillate oil inventories, and expectations of increased Iraqi oil exports [1] - The recent commissioning of the 450,000 tons/year PP production line at CNOOC Ningbo Daxie is expected to impact supply, while maintenance activities have slightly increased [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - The improvement in weather conditions and the approach of the peak season (Golden September and Silver October) are expected to boost plastic weaving operating rates, with many industries anticipating a rise in demand [1] - However, the demand during the peak season is not meeting expectations, and there is a lack of large-scale concentrated procurement in the market [1] - The implementation of anti-involution policies in the PP industry remains pending, which, along with the elimination of outdated facilities, is part of macro policies aimed at addressing overcapacity issues and will influence future market trends [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Prices are expected to fluctuate based on cost factors in the short - term, with attention on polyester upstream and downstream device changes. The price rose slightly and then fell rapidly this week. The futures market followed the cost - end trend on Friday, and the impact of PTA's own device changes on the market was limited. The spot basis was weak [5]. - MEG: The price is expected to adjust at a low level in the short - term. The market sentiment has been affected by new device progress and weak terminal markets. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation starting from the fourth quarter, putting pressure on the market. The opening rate dropped slightly to below 74% on Friday, mainly due to the temporary shutdown of Xinjiang Tianye [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, some major suppliers sold goods. September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with prices ranging from 4510 - 4605. October goods were traded at a discount of 55 - 70 to the 01 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 82 [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4555, and the 01 contract basis was - 49, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short position, with short positions increasing [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level. The price fluctuated slightly during the day, and the spot basis strengthened moderately. In the afternoon, next - week's spot was traded at a premium of 93 - 96 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The external market price also adjusted weakly, with recent shipments traded at 514 - 518 US dollars/ton [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4352, and the 01 contract basis was 95, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: Net short position [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity increased steadily, and changes in supply, demand, and inventory showed certain periodicity. For example, in 2025, the production capacity increased from 8602 in January to 9472 in December. The supply - demand gap also fluctuated, with some months showing a supply surplus and others a deficit [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production and supply of ethylene glycol also changed. The total supply and demand showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory at ports also changed accordingly. For example, in 2025, the total supply increased from 250 in January to 252 in December [14]. Price Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 US dollars/ton to 584.5 US dollars/ton, the spot price of PX increased by 17 US dollars/ton to 854 US dollars/ton, the domestic PTA price index decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 4530 yuan/ton, and the domestic MEG price index remained unchanged at 4342 yuan/ton [15]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of PTA and MEG futures contracts generally decreased. For example, the TA01 contract decreased by 62 yuan/ton to 4604 yuan/ton, and the EG01 contract decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 4257 yuan/ton [15]. - **Profit Data**: PTA processing fees decreased by 495.314 yuan/ton to - 55.83 yuan/ton. The internal - market profit of naphtha - based MEG decreased by 14.731 yuan/ton to - 1154.59 yuan/ton, while the internal - market profit of externally - purchased ethylene - based MEG increased by 116.601 yuan/ton to - 875.67 yuan/ton [15]. 5. Other Data (Graphs and Trends) - **PET Bottle Chip Data**: Included price, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, and other data trends from 2020 - 2025 [18][21][23][26]. - **Spread Data**: Included PTA and MEG month - to - month spreads, basis spreads, and spot spreads from 2020 - 2025 [27][34][42]. - **Inventory Data**: Included inventory trends of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester products from 2020 - 2025 [44][46][50][53]. - **Operating Rate Data**: Included upstream and downstream operating rates of polyester from 2020 - 2025, such as PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms [55][57][59][61]. - **Profit Data**: Included PTA processing fees, MEG production profit, and polyester fiber production profit from 2022 - 2025 [63][65][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Copper: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: ★, expected to rebound, recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [1] - Lead: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: ★, price stabilizing [1] - Aluminum: ★★, price trending stronger [1] - Nickel: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold, silver, and copper are supported by multiple factors and are recommended for long - term strategic allocation and short - term long positions. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook in the long term, suitable for short - selling on rebounds. Other metals also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold has support due to short - term geopolitical variables and long - term global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: US consumer confidence data is weak, economic growth is downgraded, and major central banks will announce interest rate decisions. Gold may break through to new highs in the short term and enter a long - term bull market. Silver has strong fundamentals with positive policies, high demand, and limited supply [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions for gold and silver are recommended. Gold should be monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver has support around 9800. Long - term upward trends for both remain unchanged [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and social inventory is at a low level, resulting in a tight balance between supply and demand throughout the year [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the expected Fed interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand factors, it is recommended to hold long positions in copper. Long - term optimism is maintained due to strategic resource status and green demand [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season, but downstream purchases are based on rigid needs [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the Fed is likely to cut interest rates and LME zinc is strong, more macro - micro resonance is needed for further upward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rebound, while alumina was under pressure [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production increased slightly in August, and inventory decreased. The demand side shows a peak - season effect. For alumina, bauxite supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise start - up rates [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized and rebounded, and stainless steel showed a slight rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is a supply - demand differentiation within the domestic nickel industry chain, with high pressure on refined nickel supply and tightness in the nickel sulfate segment. For stainless steel, inventory is decreasing, but there is pressure on terminal digestion [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take small long positions in nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high with a slight increase [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply continues to increase, while terminal demand is strong. Total inventory is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom, resulting in short - term wide - range oscillation [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see within the range of [70700 - 72100] [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][11] Core Views - The report highlights that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has led to an upward trend in copper and aluminum prices. Copper prices have increased by 1.22% in London, 1.15% in Shanghai, and 2.30% in New York. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Fed's rate cut decision and the demand during the peak season of September and October [4][6][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes significant macroeconomic information, including a substantial downward revision of the U.S. non-farm employment benchmark by 911,000 for 2025. Additionally, initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, and the U.S. CPI year-on-year rate for August met expectations at 2.9% [9][10]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the sector rising by 3.76% compared to the index's 1.52% increase. The report identifies the top-performing stocks and notes the overall positive trend in the sector [12][13]. 3. Valuation Changes - The report provides valuation metrics, indicating that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 24.96, with a change of 0.92. The PB for the sector is 2.98, reflecting a change of 0.10. The non-ferrous sector's PE is 112% of the overall A-share market [22][25]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown an increase, with London copper up 1.22% and Shanghai copper up 1.15%. The report notes a decrease in London copper inventory by 2.53% and an increase in Shanghai copper inventory by 14.91%. The report also discusses the profitability of copper smelting, which has worsened [27][39]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum prices have risen, with London aluminum increasing by 3.18% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.74%. The report highlights a decrease in alumina prices and an increase in aluminum smelting profits [39][40]. 6. Lithium - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium down 3.08% to 72,450 yuan/ton. The report suggests that the lithium market is entering a destocking phase due to seasonal demand [78][79]. 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with overseas MB cobalt rising by 1.25% to 16.15 USD/pound. The report notes the impact of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo on cobalt supply and prices [91][92].

Group 1 - The US labor market is cooling, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with ADP employment data showing an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000 [1] - Initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000, exceeding the expected 230,000, marking the highest level since June [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, the first since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - The prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to rise due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and the anticipated interest rate cut, supported by increased liquidity and positive fiscal policies [2] - Recent increases in operating rates for aluminum processing and copper rod production indicate a clear trend of end-users replenishing inventories, suggesting a higher probability of rising commodity prices as the peak season approaches [2] - The performance of copper and aluminum companies has exceeded expectations, with valuations at low levels, indicating a potential for rapid recovery [2] Group 3 - The recent significant price increases in medium and heavy rare earth metals have prompted regulatory measures to cool down the market, while export controls have been relaxed, potentially accelerating imports and driving domestic prices up [2] - Rare earth stocks are expected to perform well in a strong market, with significant valuation elasticity, especially during critical US-China tariff negotiations, highlighting their strategic and economic value [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 4th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Iron ore, eggs, and lithium carbonate rose over 1%, while jujube and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) dropped over 3%, and fuel oil, SC crude oil, asphalt, and PTA fell over 2% [6]. - In terms of funds flow, CSI 500 2509, CSI 300 2509, and iron ore 2601 had capital inflows of 2.303 billion, 1.381 billion, and 863 million respectively, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.833 billion, 1.365 billion, and 957 million respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - Despite being in the off - season, domestic power grid investment boosts copper demand, but external demand will weaken in the second half of the year. With low inventory and expected supply tightness, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply remains loose, but production cuts are uncertain. With high inventory and upcoming demand in the peak season, prices are expected to be under pressure. The supply situation in Jiangxi needs attention [11]. Crude Oil - As the consumption peak season ends and OPEC+ plans to increase production, the supply - demand balance will weaken. It is recommended to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and potential sanctions on Russia [12][14]. Asphalt - Supply is expected to increase in September, and demand is restricted by various factors. With the weakening cost support from crude oil, asphalt futures are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. PP - Downstream开工率 is low, and new capacity is added. With the approaching peak season, there may be some improvement. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to global trade wars and anti - overcapacity policies [16][17]. Plastic -开工率 is at a medium level, and new capacity is added. Although the agricultural film market is improving, overall demand is weak. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to anti - overcapacity policies [18]. PVC - Supply is high, and demand is weak. With increased inventory and export pressure, PVC is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to anti - overcapacity policies [20]. Coking Coal - Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand has no obvious improvement. Coking coal is expected to be weak in the near term. Attention should be paid to the coking coal price cut process [21][22]. Urea - Supply is high, and demand is weak. With increased inventory, urea is expected to be weak. However, there may be some support from autumn fertilizers and off - season storage [23].

1. Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,415 yuan/ton (+10), the spot price in East China was 6,575 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China was 6,630 yuan/ton (-5). The basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis in North China was 215 yuan/ton (-15). The propylene operating rate was 75% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha was 190 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 89 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit was -159 yuan/ton (+25), and the in-plant inventory was 39,110 tons (-1,210) [1]. - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder was 41% (+1.22%), and the production profit was -260 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide was 73% (-1%), and the production profit was -120 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of n-butanol was 87% (-2%), and the production profit was -123 yuan/ton (+3); the operating rate of octanol was 94% (+2%), and the production profit was 154 yuan/ton (-47); the operating rate of acrylic acid was 69% (-1%), and the production profit was 157 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile was 74% (+1%), and the production profit was -682 yuan/ton (+30); the operating rate of phenol-ketone was 76% (-2%), and the production profit was -539 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 2. Market Analysis Supply side - Regarding the main PDH units, Hebei Haiwei's 500,000-ton unit was under maintenance, Wanhua Penglai had a restart expectation recently, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed, and Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued. The PDH operating rate decreased month-on-month, and the external supply of propylene tightened, which supported the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the continuous maintenance of the units [2]. Demand side - The operating rates of propylene downstream industries showed a mixed trend. The operating rate of PP increased month-on-month, mainly due to the support from the demand for PP downstream packaging films, injection molding, etc.; the operating rate of octanol continued to rise significantly, while the operating rates of n-butanol, PO, and phenol-ketone declined significantly. The downstream demand showed a slight recovery in the short term, but the overall profit of downstream products was average. The increase in the propylene spot price compressed the downstream profit, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. Attention should be paid to the stocking demand as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches [2]. Cost side - OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price may decline; the Saudi CP propane price in September was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and the landed price of the overseas propane swap also has a decline expectation [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; The expected tightening of PDH propylene supply supports the price, but the downstream profit is under pressure and may lack follow-up strength [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. 4. Report Catalog Summary I. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures like the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refineries [17][25][32]. III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39]. IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [42][44][47]. V. Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is expected to be slightly bullish in the near term. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak due to tariffs and the pre - empted demand from previous terminal exports, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is about to enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but the production reduction disturbances continue. With high inventory and weak downstream demand, the market sentiment is bearish [11]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Under the weak supply - demand situation, asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term due to limited cost support [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the downstream demand is currently weak, the upcoming peak season may bring some improvement. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15][16]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The improvement in the agricultural film industry may bring some boost, but the overall demand is still weak [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The fundamental pressure is large, and the export expectation is weak [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The coke price cut has been proposed but not yet implemented, and attention should be paid to the subsequent progress [20]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to fluctuate. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Indian urea import tender [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 2, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and container shipping to Europe rose over 3%. Lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.69%, IH rose 0.35%, IC fell 1.78%, and IM fell 1.86%. Among bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL all declined [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on September 2, funds flowed into IC 2509 (3.273 billion), IM 2509 (3.241 billion), and IF 2509 (2.523 billion). Funds flowed out of 30 - year treasury bond 2512 (453 million), Shanghai silver 2510 (438 million), and Shanghai gold 2510 (317 million) [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: In September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. The import of copper will increase, and the demand is affected by policies and previous exports. The price is expected to be slightly bullish [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price declined. The production in August increased, and the import in July decreased. The market was affected by the rumored resumption of a mine [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply - demand situation will weaken. The price may decline [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to increase in September. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at low - to - medium levels. The cost is affected by the oil price, and new capacity is being put into production. It is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased. The downstream demand is weak, but the agricultural film industry may bring some improvement. It is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is abundant, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline with fluctuations [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: An accident led to the shutdown of a coal mine. The import increased in July, and the supply - demand situation is becoming looser [20]. - **Urea**: The price is slightly bullish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PVC is affected by the sentiment of the black sector and follows the decline. The supply - side pressure is large in the long - term, the demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. The recommendation for PVC is to be cautiously bearish. [3][5] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable. Although the start - up rate has decreased, the demand has certain characteristics affected by transportation and season. The cost support exists, and the recommendation for caustic soda is to be cautiously bullish. [4][5] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4894 yuan/ton (-13); the East China basis is -224 yuan/ton (+3); the South China basis is -134 yuan/ton (+3). [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (-10); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (-10). [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is -64 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -399 yuan/ton (-176); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -628 yuan/ton (-36); the PVC export profit is 16.7 dollars/ton (+0.0). [1] - PVC inventory and start - up: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.2 tons (+0.6); the PVC social inventory is 52.2 tons (+1.4); the PVC calcium carbide - based start - up rate is 75.24% (-0.83%); the PVC ethylene - based start - up rate is 68.66% (-3.78%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 73.33% (-1.69%). [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (-2.9). [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2735 yuan/ton (+65); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -16 yuan/ton (-65). [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0). [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 784.5 yuan/ton (+40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 642.53 yuan/ton (-20.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1398.45 yuan/ton (-30.00). [2] - Caustic soda inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.95 tons (-1.69); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (-0.22); the caustic soda start - up rate is 82.40% (-0.80%). [2] - Caustic soda downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 85.58% (-0.20%); the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 64.73% (+0.87%); the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 86.02% (-0.20%). [2] Market Analysis PVC - Affected by the black sector, PVC follows the decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and cost factors. The supply - side pressure is large in the long - term due to new production capacity and more production resumptions. The demand is weak with low downstream start - up and weakening exports. The inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable. The start - up rate decreases due to maintenance. The demand is affected by transportation and season. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period. [4] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for a reverse spread when the PVC01 - 05 spread is high. - Inter - commodity spread: None. [5] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Inter - delivery spread: Go for a positive spread when the SH10 - 01 spread is low. - Inter - commodity spread: None. [5]