超长期贷款
Search documents
内需“双引擎”扩容提质 增长新动能释放新潜力——2025年终经济观察
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-04 23:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the dual engines of consumption and investment are crucial for maintaining stable economic growth in the face of external uncertainties, with potential for further release of domestic demand through enhanced policies [1][6] Group 2 - Service consumption is expanding and improving, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.3% year-on-year and service retail sales growing by 5.3% in the first ten months of the year [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [2] - The share of service consumption in residents' expenditure is increasing, reaching 46.8% in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards services [2][3] Group 3 - Investment structure is optimizing, with fixed asset investment excluding real estate growing by 1.7% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment increasing by 2.7% [4] - Despite a slowdown in overall investment growth, high-tech industries such as information services and aerospace are experiencing rapid investment growth [4] - The impact of fiscal policies, including special bonds and long-term loans, is expected to support investment growth, particularly in infrastructure, although the effects may take time to materialize [5][8] Group 4 - The potential for domestic demand is expected to continue being released, with consumption capacity and structure upgrading, providing broad growth opportunities [7] - The implementation of major strategies outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan is anticipated to drive investment growth stabilization [7] - Supportive fiscal policies, including the use of special long-term bonds for consumption upgrades, are expected to enhance the effectiveness of consumption policies [8]
内需“双引擎”扩容提质 增长新动能释放新潜力
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-04 17:54
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a dual engine of consumption and investment in driving China's economic growth, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the uncertain external environment [1][6]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Service consumption is expanding and improving, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.3% year-on-year and service retail sales growing by 5.3% in the first ten months of the year [2]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. - The proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to reach 46.1% in 2024, with a further increase to 46.8% in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a shift towards service consumption as a key growth driver [2]. Group 2: Investment Structure - Fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, grew by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with manufacturing investment increasing by 2.7% [4]. - High-tech industries, particularly in information services and aerospace, are experiencing rapid investment growth, while overall investment growth is slowing [4]. - The impact of fiscal policies, such as special bonds and long-term loans, is expected to support investment growth, although the immediate effects may not be realized until early next year [5][8]. Group 3: Policy Support - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension refinancing facility, indicating a shift in macro policy focus towards service consumption [3]. - The government is implementing various policies to enhance service consumption, including subsidies and support for sectors like elderly care and cultural tourism [3]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan aims to significantly increase the role of domestic demand in economic growth, with a focus on improving consumption rates [6][7].