Core Insights - The recent tightening of the U.S. repo market has not raised excessive concerns, indicating an uneven liquidity environment [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is frustrated by the rising effective federal funds rate, which is only 2 basis points lower than the excess reserves rate [3] - The primary dynamic in the market is the tightening of the repo market, with the SOFR rate rising to 4%, significantly above the excess reserves rate [3][4] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current method to influence liquidity is through the purchase of Treasury securities, which is a blunt tool to address the appearance of liquidity tightness [4] - There is speculation that major dealers and qualified deposit institutions do not feel liquidity pressure, leading to minimal demand for liquidity despite the apparent need [3][4] - The effective federal funds rate is expected to remain above the excess reserves rate, which is not a technical issue as banks can use the federal funds window to prevent significant deviations [4] Group 2 - The bond market remains stable, with 2-year and 10-year yields showing little volatility despite pipeline issues [6] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is on a path to lower interest rates, potentially bringing the benchmark rate down to around 3% [6] - The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilized above 4.1% since Powell's comments on the December rate cut, with upcoming economic data likely to influence future movements [6]

来源：滚动播报 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos表示，美联储主席鲍威尔关于资产负债表的讲话做了几件事： 1)鉴于近期 隔夜拆借利率呈现走强迹象，该讲话对当前量化紧缩前景进行了按市价计价的评估； 2)它反驳了最近 的批评（如美国财长贝森特等人），这些批评认为疫情期间的支持措施——当时在国会和特朗普政府初 期的广泛支持下实施——属于荒谬的政策干预。鲍威尔承认（就像他之前承认的那样），更快地停止量 化宽松看起来会更明智，但鉴于美联储在2022年如此迅速和急剧地改变路线，此举对宏观经济并无实质 性影响。 3)它还对两党民粹主义参议员试图剥夺美联储支付超额准备金利率（IOR）能力的努力进行了 辩护，警告称撤销这一政策工具可能对市场造成更大的破坏。 ...