与此同时，美联储已通过常备回购工具为合格参与者提供流动性准备，但此类流动性需求并不旺盛。推测 原因在于主要交易商和合格存款机构并未感受到流动性紧缩压力。但这些合格参与者本有能力平抑市场整 体的流动性需求。因此美联储可能感到沮丧——他们随时准备供应流动性，表面看来存在流动性需求，但 实际需求量却微乎其微。 我们仍认为银行储备充足，但美联储当前影响流动性状况最便捷的方式是购买国库券，从而诱导银行储备 增加。不过这终究是解决流动性紧张表象的粗放手段。更优方案是加速推进补充流动性比率要求的放宽， 从而让大型银行释放更多资产负债表空间。当前有效联邦基金利率易于高于超额准备利率，从技术层面看 这并非问题——银行可通过联邦基金利率窗口操作防止利率大幅偏离。 总体而言，我们认为当前状况可控且无需担忧。但美联储仍将采取应对措施，主要通过超额购买国债（自 12月1日起）来抵消抵押贷款支持证券的到期规模。与此同时，过去24小时回购市场已显现趋稳迹象，若 能持续将有助于缓解有效资金利率压力。 超短期端之外，市场远更为平静 近期美国回购市场资金紧张并未令我们过度担忧。这确实表明流动性环境存在不均衡现象。合格的常设回 购参与者似乎并不需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans for five consecutive months, indicating a lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes amid historically low net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR for both 1-year and 5-year terms has remained unchanged for five months, reflecting a stable pricing basis due to the unchanged policy rates [2]. - The recent increase in market interest rates, including the AAA-rated 1-year interbank certificates of deposit, has slightly raised the financing costs for commercial banks, further reducing the incentive to lower LPR quotes [2][3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent macroeconomic data, including consumption, investment, and industrial production, has shown a decline due to multiple factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in the real estate market [3]. - The acceleration in export growth, influenced by trade transfer effects and changes in the previous year's base, along with earlier fiscal policy support, has contributed to the stability of the LPR [3]. Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - Analysts predict an increased necessity for policies aimed at stabilizing growth and employment, especially in light of external volatility and declining investment and consumption growth [5]. - There is a potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the end of the year, which could lead to a decrease in LPR quotes, stimulating internal financing demand [5][6]. - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts may weaken the constraints on China's monetary policy, increasing the likelihood of domestic rate adjustments [5][6].

Group 1 - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, effective until the next announcement [1] - The stability of the LPR aligns with market expectations, as the central bank's seven-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed [2] - Factors such as extreme weather, growth stabilization policies, external fluctuations, and real estate market adjustments have caused macroeconomic data to fluctuate [2] Group 2 - The central bank's seven-day reverse repurchase rate has become a key monetary policy rate, guiding other interest rates [3] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding reflects a move towards marketization of interest rates [3] - Future monetary policy will focus on optimizing the structure of financial growth rather than just increasing total volume [3] Group 3 - There is potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions before the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [4] - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut may reduce external constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for more flexibility [4] - The expectation is that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which could lead to lower loan rates for businesses and residents [4] Group 4 - The necessity for interest rate cuts is high due to weak credit and declining real estate sales, which could lower financing costs [5] - The sentiment in the stock market has been positive, indicating a need for careful guidance of market emotions through monetary tools like interest rate cuts [5] - Attention should be paid to potential government bond supply pressures at year-end, which may prompt further monetary policy actions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above, indicating stability in monetary policy and potential for future adjustments to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [1][6]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR for both 1-year and 5-year terms remained unchanged in September, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates [4]. - The PBOC's 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed, suggesting that the pricing basis for the LPR has not shifted significantly [1][4]. - Analysts believe there is still room for downward adjustments in policy rates and LPR before the end of the year to support economic growth and stabilize the real estate market [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Future Outlook - Recent macroeconomic data has shown volatility due to various factors, including extreme weather and external market fluctuations, but fiscal policies have been supportive since the beginning of the year [4]. - The PBOC is expected to implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, which could lead to lower loan rates for businesses and consumers [7]. - The current low inflation levels provide sufficient space for a moderately loose monetary policy, reducing concerns about high inflation [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The shift to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding for the 14-day reverse repurchase operations indicates a move towards market-driven interest rates [5]. - Analysts suggest that the recent Federal Reserve rate cut may improve the environment for China's monetary easing, allowing for more aggressive domestic policy adjustments [6][8]. - The need for further support in the real estate market is emphasized, with expectations for targeted reductions in the LPR for longer-term loans to stimulate housing demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) steady for three months, following a 0.1 percentage point reduction in May, which is expected to influence both corporate and residential loan rates positively [3][9]. Group 1: Loan Rates Overview - The current commercial loan rates for first-time homebuyers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 3.00% and 3.05% respectively, while second-home buyers face rates of 3.00% and 3.45% [3]. - The public housing fund loan rates for first-time homebuyers are 2.60% in both cities, with second-home buyers facing rates of 3.075% [3]. Group 2: LPR Historical Trends - Since August 2019, the 5-year LPR has decreased from 4.85% to 3.50%, indicating a sustained downward trend [6]. - The reduction in LPR is expected to lower financing costs for businesses, stimulating investment and economic growth, while also easing the mortgage burden on residents, thereby boosting housing demand [6][9]. Group 3: Impact of LPR on Mortgage Payments - A comparison of mortgage payments shows that a loan of 2 million yuan over 30 years at an interest rate of 4.85% results in a total repayment of approximately 3.8 million yuan, while at 3.5%, the total repayment drops to about 3.23 million yuan, saving around 566,000 yuan in interest [7][8]. Group 4: Reasons for LPR Stability - The PBOC's decision to keep the LPR unchanged is influenced by the stability of short-term borrowing rates and the current economic conditions, which do not necessitate immediate adjustments [9][10][11]. - Banks are under profit pressure and are reluctant to lower LPR rates further, as this could impact their profitability [10]. - The macroeconomic environment has shown stability, leading to a cautious approach in adjusting LPR rates [11]. Group 5: Future Predictions - Future LPR adjustments may occur as indicated by the recent Central Urban Work Conference, which emphasizes the need for a stable real estate market and potential measures to stimulate demand [12][13]. - The conference highlighted the importance of reducing overall financing costs, suggesting that there is room for future LPR reductions [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia is expected to maintain the 7-day reverse repo rate at 5.25% by the end of the third quarter, consistent with the findings from the June survey [1] Group 1 - The 7-day reverse repo rate is projected to remain unchanged at 5.25% [1]

来源|中国证券报 4月21日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布， 2025年4月21日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR为 3.6%，均较上期维持不变。 这是LPR连续六个月"按兵不动"。 图片来源：中国货币网 业内普遍认为，本月LPR保持不变，符合市场预期。一方面，7天期逆回购利率保持稳定，作为LPR报价的定价基础，其稳定很大程度上预示LPR会 保持不变；另一方面，银行净息差仍处在低位，缺乏下调LPR报价加点的动力。 从经济基本面看，经济保持向好态势，LPR下行迫切性不强。 "年初以来LPR持续保持不变，根本上是因为一季度经济走势偏强，LPR下行的迫切性 不强。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说。 从利率角度看，当前无论是企业贷款利率还是个人贷款利率都处于低位。 央行数据显示，3月份，企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为 3.3%，比上年同期低约45个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约60个基点。 往后看，LPR仍有下行空间。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，在外部不确定性上升、内部政策效果处于观察期等情况下，央行货币调控" ...

今晚写夜报前看major决赛的直播，这是cs全年最重要的比赛，冠军奖金50万美元。我从2000年就开始玩这游戏，24年了，一直到现在都经常和哥们组 排，但水平已经不行了，就纯娱乐。 决赛是俄罗斯的spirit对阵欧洲的faze，前面两张图打成1:1，最后决胜图是全世界玩家最熟悉的dust2。spirt依靠队内天才步枪手的发挥一度握有7个赛点， 顽强的faze硬生生从5:12追到了11:12，但最终还是输掉了最后一局。 真的刺激，我已经很久没看过这么让人窒息的决赛了，电子竞技的观赏性绝对超过了绝大多数的体育项目。 这次比赛最闪耀的mvp是一个17岁的俄罗斯少年donk，今年是他征战职业赛场的第一年，但就打出了全球top1的水平，赛场表现炸裂，他的六边形数据全 部"爆表"。 来，把周末值得说的事情捋一捋。 1、10年期国债活跃券收益率跌破1.8%关口，报1.78%，继续创历史新低。30年国债的收益率也随后跌破2%关口，报1.9999%。已经有几家券商研报判断 明年的逆回购利率会下跌40-50bp，至于房贷的利率降幅则要比这个更大。做出这些判断是有前提的，即中国经济确实需要进一步的宽松刺激，以及房价 依然还没有达到 ...