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美元空头遭遇反杀,大摩逆市重磅预测:欧元剑指1.30,美元长期上升通道恐破裂?跨市场交易机会浮现!黄金困于区间交易,市场巨震幕后:鲍威尔去留悬疑+通胀谜题,交易员如何应对?点击获取宏观信息差>>
news flash· 2025-07-21 00:49
黄金困局待破,欧元趋势或成催化剂 美元空头遭遇反杀,大摩逆市重磅预测:欧元剑指1.30,美元长期上升通道恐破裂?跨市场交易机会浮 现!黄金困于区间交易,市场巨震幕后:鲍威尔去留悬疑+通胀谜题,交易员如何应对?点击获取宏观 信息差>> 相关链接 ...
科创债专题之三:科创债规模和跨市场利差怎么看?
China Post Securities· 2025-07-11 09:32
Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inclusion of financial institutions such as banks has led to a record - high issuance of science and technology innovation bonds (Sci - tech bonds). The annual issuance of Sci - tech bonds may reach 2 trillion yuan [2][3]. - The first batch of Sci - tech bond ETFs was issued hotly, and attention should be paid to cross - market trading opportunities [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. High Proportion of Financial Institutions, Annual Issuance of Sci - tech Bonds May Reach 2 Trillion - After the new policy, the issuance of Sci - tech bonds increased significantly, with a high proportion of financial institutions such as banks and non - banks. Since the launch of the bond "Sci - tech board" in May 2025, the issuance of Sci - tech bonds in Q2 2025 increased to over 70 billion yuan, and banks accounted for nearly 40% of the total issuance of about 59 billion yuan [2][10]. - Estimated from the historical growth trend of industrial Sci - tech bonds, the issuance in 2025 may reach around 1.7 trillion yuan. From the perspective of bank asset - liability management, there is still about 24 billion yuan of issuance space for bank Sci - tech bonds, and the total of the two is about 2 trillion yuan [3][12][16]. 2. Hot Issuance of Sci - tech Bond ETFs, Pay Attention to Cross - market Trading Opportunities 2.1 Hot Primary Subscription of Sci - tech Bond ETFs, High - rated and Long - duration Component Bonds - The first batch of 10 Sci - tech bond ETFs were all sold out on the first day of their launch, raising a total of about 30 billion yuan. The underlying index component bonds are high - rated bonds, all being publicly - offered bonds of AAA - rated entities listed on the exchange [17]. - The industry distribution of the component bonds of the Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA Sci - tech bond index is concentrated, with the construction industry having a high proportion and relatively long duration. The industry distribution of the component bonds of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange AAA Sci - tech bond index is relatively dispersed, and the duration is also relatively long [18][21]. 2.2 Similar Issuance Volumes of Sci - tech Bonds in the Inter - bank and Exchange Markets, the Exchange Market is Expected to Expand Further - The balance of Sci - tech bonds in the exchange market is currently 1.27 trillion yuan, which is relatively small compared to other mainstream bond varieties. The proportion of AAA - rated entities is high, and most of the bonds have an implied rating of AA+ or above [24]. - Since 2021, the issuance volumes of Sci - tech bonds in the exchange and inter - bank markets have been similar. After the launch of the bond Sci - tech board in May 2025, the number of inter - bank listed Sci - tech bonds was significantly higher. However, considering the issuance situation of industrial Sci - tech bonds, the scale of the exchange market is expected to increase [26]. 2.3 Valuation Differentiation between the Inter - bank and Exchange Markets, Pay Attention to Cross - market Trading Opportunities - Driven by factors such as the market's expectation of enhanced liquidity of index component bonds, ETF issuers' advance reserve of individual bonds, and institutional arbitrage motives, the trading volume of index component bonds has increased significantly, and the yields in the inter - bank and exchange markets have diverged [31]. - The yields of medium - and long - term component bonds are generally lower than those of inter - bank bonds of the same level and term. There may still be some downward space for component bonds in the construction industry with a 7 - 10 - year term and in the public utilities industry with a 3 - 5 - year term, as well as for short - term component bonds [4].