踏空风险

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站在修复的十字路口:向左还是向右
淡水泉投资· 2025-09-10 09:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of fund net value rising while experiencing net redemptions, questioning whether this is a sound investment decision for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Trends - Since September 24 of the previous year, the Chinese capital market has experienced a strong upward trend, leading to a positive cycle of profit-making effects and incremental capital [1]. - Despite the improved market sentiment, actively managed equity public funds have not seen significant growth in their shares and have instead experienced continuous net redemptions [1][3]. Group 2: Historical Context of Fund Redemptions - Historical data shows that the phenomenon of fund net value rising while experiencing redemptions is not uncommon, with similar occurrences noted during previous market rallies [3]. - Many investors tend to redeem their funds after experiencing a long recovery period, often leading to a pattern of redeeming after reaching breakeven [3][5]. Group 3: Recovery and Long-term Performance - An analysis of 2,418 public funds established since 2001 reveals that over half of the more than 3,300 instances of drawdowns exceeding 20% have fully recovered [6]. - Funds that have experienced significant drawdowns often continue to provide returns to patient investors, with a probability of over 75% for positive returns if held for an additional six months to two years post-recovery [6][8]. Group 4: Investment Decision-Making - Investors often base their redemption decisions on the cost price or net value during drawdowns, which can lead to impulsive actions driven by loss aversion [12]. - Redemption decisions should consider future risk and return comparisons, including current market conditions and personal investment goals [12][13]. Group 5: Risks of Timing and Reallocation - Timing the market is challenging, and missing out on the best trading days can significantly reduce overall returns, as evidenced by the performance of equity mixed funds since 2014 [13][14]. - Switching to other funds after a redemption may not yield better results, as historical data indicates that 61% of original funds outperformed the top 10% of funds from the previous year [16][17].
「踏空」很难受,该怎么办呢?|投资小知识
银行螺丝钉· 2025-08-19 14:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the differences in risk and reward between fund managers and ordinary investors, highlighting that while fund managers may benefit from aggressive strategies, ordinary investors should focus on absolute returns to avoid long-term losses that could impact their purchasing power [3][5]. Group 1 - Ordinary investors take on greater risks without guaranteed rewards, unlike fund managers who can see significant performance boosts and income increases from aggressive strategies [3]. - Fund managers prioritize relative returns, aiming to outperform other funds, while ordinary investors should focus on absolute returns to ensure profitability [4][5]. - The article advocates for investing during undervalued phases to minimize losses, suggesting that even in a rising market, investors should consider fixed-income products to balance their portfolios [6]. Group 2 - The article mentions various investment advisory combinations available, including index enhancement and active selection, designed to simplify investment for individuals [7].