文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 低。其实不仅仅是白酒,其他的食品饮料也是 整体下跌的。 原因是消费的基本面比较低迷。 因此估值也比较低，要等下一轮业绩复苏。 同红利。 (2) 质量类指数 主要挑选ROE比较高的股票，并且也含有不少 消费。 质量类指数是2020-2021年牛市上涨最多的指 数之一，但也因此2021年估值过高。之后几年 质量类指数表现比较低迷。 2025年以来截止到8月中旬，质量指数整体微 涨。但背后公司盈利也增长，估值并没有提高 多少。 代表是MSCI质量、300质量、500质量。不过 质量类指数基金，数量相对稀少一些。 (3) 红利类 像红利类指数,2025年以来截止到8月中旬平 均也是上涨的，但涨幅不高。 红利这种价值风格,往往在熊市的时候更容易 发挥优势。牛市弹性小，不吸引散户的眼球。 像2019-2021年牛市,红利也上涨了一些,但 跑输市场。 红利类指数,2025年略微上涨。背后公司的盈 利也增长，所以指数估值反而降了一些。 (4) 自由现金流 自由现金流指数是2025年新出来的指数,挑选 自由现金流率比较高的股票。 从今年年初到8月中旬，自由现金流指数微 涨。但背后公司盈利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the differences in risk and reward between fund managers and ordinary investors, highlighting that while fund managers may benefit from aggressive strategies, ordinary investors should focus on absolute returns to avoid long-term losses that could impact their purchasing power [3][5]. Group 1 - Ordinary investors take on greater risks without guaranteed rewards, unlike fund managers who can see significant performance boosts and income increases from aggressive strategies [3]. - Fund managers prioritize relative returns, aiming to outperform other funds, while ordinary investors should focus on absolute returns to ensure profitability [4][5]. - The article advocates for investing during undervalued phases to minimize losses, suggesting that even in a rising market, investors should consider fixed-income products to balance their portfolios [6]. Group 2 - The article mentions various investment advisory combinations available, including index enhancement and active selection, designed to simplify investment for individuals [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "missing out" on market gains, emphasizing that for ordinary investors, missing out is not a risk, while losing money is the real concern [2][10]. Group 1: Fund Managers' Perspective - For fund managers, missing out on market gains poses a significant risk, as it can lead to underperformance compared to the market, resulting in investor dissatisfaction and a substantial decrease in fund size [4][6]. - A decline in fund size directly impacts the management fees collected by fund companies, leading to reduced revenue [5]. - To mitigate this risk, many fund managers opt to maintain a high stock allocation consistently, aiming for excess returns through careful stock selection [7][8]. Group 2: Ordinary Investors' Perspective - Ordinary investors face different circumstances; they do not receive rewards for taking on greater risks, and aggressive investment strategies do not guarantee higher returns [11][14]. - Ordinary investors often need to liquidate assets for cash flow to meet living expenses, which can be problematic during market downturns [15][16]. - Unlike fund managers, who focus on relative performance against other funds, ordinary investors should prioritize absolute returns to ensure each investment is profitable and does not negatively impact their purchasing power [20][17]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of investing during undervalued market phases to minimize potential losses [21][23]. - It highlights that purchasing high-quality assets at lower valuations can lead to higher long-term returns while reducing risk [22][23]. - As of August 12, 2025, the market is still considered relatively cheap, presenting an opportunity for investors to accumulate quality assets [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "safe havens" in investment, emphasizing strategies to reduce portfolio risk while maintaining returns, particularly during market volatility [3][4][12]. Group 1: Safe Haven Theory - The "safe haven" theory suggests that there are methods to lower risk without sacrificing returns, contrary to traditional financial theories that posit a direct relationship between risk and return [4]. - The book "Safe Haven" introduces strategies to mitigate overall investment portfolio risk, aiming for stability during significant market fluctuations [12]. Group 2: Types of Safe Haven Strategies - Three main strategies for achieving safe havens are identified: 1. **Diversified Allocation + Rebalancing**: This strategy involves a mix of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, where bonds act as a buffer during stock market downturns [15][17]. 2. **Utilizing Negative Correlation Among Assets**: This approach, exemplified by Bridgewater's All Weather strategy, diversifies across various asset classes to ensure that not all assets move in the same direction [21][22]. 3. **Barbell Strategy**: Proposed by Nassim Taleb, this strategy allocates most capital to safe assets like government bonds while a small portion is invested in high-risk options, preparing for unpredictable market events [29][32]. Group 3: Comparison of Strategies - All three strategies serve as effective "safe havens" during financial crises, significantly reducing risk exposure for investors [40]. - The Barbell strategy requires a higher level of investor sophistication due to its use of derivatives, while the other two strategies are more accessible and widely adopted [42][43].