大家好，我是银行螺丝钉，欢迎来到这期的螺丝钉带你读书。 「螺丝钉带你读书」也陪伴大家度过了三百多期，为大家讲解了很多有趣、经典的书籍和故事，比如《三十几岁，财务自由》、《如何读一本 书》、《战胜拖延症》等等。 还为大家详细介绍了几位投资大师：股神巴菲特、他的好搭档查理芒格和指数基金之父约翰博格。分享了他们的人生经历、投资生涯和投资的理 念。 大家可以点击下面链接查看部分螺丝钉带你读书合集： 《 世界读书日，螺丝钉送你121本私藏经典好书 》 往期回顾 第一篇：《 股神的价值投资策略，在A股也有效吗？ 》 第二篇：《 巴菲特价值投资的三次演化：从"捡烟蒂"到买优秀公司 》 第三篇：《 学会估值，轻松投资：普通投资者也能学会的实用估值方法 》 三种股债资产配置策略 这几期螺丝钉带你读书，介绍的，是价值投资经典书籍，《证券分析》。 前几篇，咱们介绍了，价值投资在过去百年的演化，以及价值投资中，很重要的估值方法。 不过在投资的时候，并不是每个阶段，都会有低估买入的机会。 例如在牛市里，低估的股票资产会越来越少。 没有低估机会，资金放在哪里？ 高估止盈出来的钱，放在哪里？ 资金规模。 估值配置策略 第一种，是格雷厄姆和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, the characteristics of various bond funds, and investment strategies for different types of bond funds, particularly focusing on "fixed income plus" products. Group 1: Bond Fund Characteristics - Bond funds are a common asset class with unique return and risk characteristics compared to other assets [5] - The performance of bond funds since 2012 shows that their returns and volatility are between those of money market funds and stock funds [7] - Bond funds generally have more stable returns and lower volatility compared to stock funds [8] Group 2: Risks in Bond Funds - Investors need to be aware of the "踩雷" risk, where some bond funds may drop over 10% or even 30% in a short period [10] - To mitigate this risk, investors should choose high-quality bonds like government bonds and diversify their bond holdings [10] Group 3: Types of Bond Funds - Common types of bond funds include: - Short-term pure bond funds, which have very low volatility and returns slightly higher than money market funds [12] - Long-term pure bond funds, which have higher volatility [14] - "Fixed income plus" funds, which include a mix of bonds and a small portion of stocks or convertible bonds [15][41] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article outlines the differences between short-term and long-term bond funds, emphasizing that short-term funds are currently more suitable for investment due to lower volatility [26] - The "fixed income plus" strategy is highlighted as a way to enhance returns while managing risk through a mix of fixed income and equity [39] Group 5: Factors Influencing Bond Fund Performance - Bond fund prices are inversely related to interest rates; when rates decline, bond prices typically rise [30] - The 10-year government bond yield was around 1.89% as of September 24, 2025, indicating a low-interest environment [32] Group 6: "Fixed Income Plus" Characteristics - "Fixed income plus" products typically have three main characteristics: - They leverage the negative correlation between stocks and bonds to reduce volatility [46] - Their returns and risks are influenced by the proportion of stocks included [48] - They benefit from declining deposit rates, making them attractive in a low-rate environment [55] Group 7: Sources of Returns in "Fixed Income Plus" - Returns from "fixed income plus" products come from: - Stock performance, including earnings growth and valuation increases [59] - Bond interest income and capital gains from trading [62] - Rebalancing strategies that capitalize on market fluctuations [64] Group 8: Selection Criteria for "Fixed Income Plus" - When selecting "fixed income plus" products, investors should consider: - The ratio of stocks to bonds [67] - The type of bonds held, favoring government bonds for lower risk [69] - The style of stocks, with a preference for value stocks over growth stocks [73] - The presence of a rebalancing strategy to manage risk effectively [75] Group 9: Current Investment Climate - As of late September 2025, the stock market is rated around 4.2 stars, indicating it is not overly expensive, making "fixed income plus" products a viable investment option [77] - The article suggests that with low interest rates, "fixed income plus" products are still in a favorable investment phase [78]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies, particularly focusing on "rebalancing" to manage risks and enhance returns in investment portfolios [3][4]. Group 1: Rebalancing Strategy - The concept of rebalancing involves adjusting the proportions of stocks and bonds in a portfolio based on market movements. For instance, if stocks drop below 40% of the portfolio, selling some bonds to buy more stocks is advisable. Conversely, if stocks exceed 40%, selling some stocks to increase bond holdings is recommended [3]. - This rebalancing strategy can provide additional returns and reduce risks, effectively acting as a "free lunch" in investment [3]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article discusses the "All Weather" strategy, exemplified by Bridgewater Associates, which diversifies investments across various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. This strategy aims to ensure that these assets do not move in the same direction simultaneously [5][6][7]. - The effectiveness of such strategies is also noted in the A-share market, indicating their broader applicability [8]. Group 3: Black Swan Theory - The article references Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swan" theory, which highlights unpredictable risks that can have significant impacts. Taleb advocates for a "barbell strategy," where the majority of investments are in safe assets like government bonds, while a small portion is allocated to high-risk options [9][10]. - This approach allows investors to earn stable returns from safe assets while being positioned to benefit significantly if a "Black Swan" event occurs, thus acting as a risk mitigation strategy [11]. Group 4: Global Adoption - The strategies discussed are widely adopted by investors globally, showcasing their relevance and effectiveness in various market conditions [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, highlighting the growth in technology stocks and the overall market trends, while also addressing the bond market's fluctuations and the significance of various indices in reflecting market conditions. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase, closing at a rating of 4.3 stars [1] - Both large, medium, and small-cap stocks experienced minor gains with low volatility [2] - Growth style stocks slightly declined while value style stocks saw a minor increase [3] - Hong Kong stocks have continued to rise, particularly in the technology sector, with significant year-on-year profit growth in Q2 [4][5] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The stock market remains robust, but the pure bond market has shown volatility [7] - Long-term pure bonds have continued to decline, with the 10-year government bond down 3% and the 30-year bond down 5% from their highs this year [9] - The current yield for the 10-year government bond is around 1.8%, which is not considered attractive at this time [11] Group 3: Historical Context of A-share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high in August, peaking at 3888 points, but has not surpassed the 2015 high of 5178 points or the 2007 high of 6124 points [14][15][17] - The bull market from 2005 to 2007 saw the index rise from under 1000 points to 6124 points, a sixfold increase, which has impacted long-term returns [18][20][22] - The index has shown long-term growth, particularly at the bottom points of bear markets, which are influenced by the fundamentals of listed companies [26][34] Group 4: Index Fund Dynamics - The number of index funds linked to the Shanghai Composite Index is significantly lower compared to those linked to the CSI 300 and CSI 500, with only 16 funds totaling 8.9 billion compared to 285 funds for CSI 300 totaling 1.3 trillion [38][39] - The underrepresentation of the Shanghai Composite Index in the fund market is attributed to its limited scope, only including stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [42][44] - The majority of recent investments by state-owned entities have been in CSI 300 and CSI 500 index funds rather than the Shanghai Composite Index [45] Group 5: Future Outlook and Features - The article mentions the launch of new features for investment strategies, including an "automatic profit-taking" function for actively managed and enhanced index portfolios [53][54] - A new feature in the "Today Star" mini-program allows users to access core data and real-time valuations of mainstream ETFs, helping investors identify undervalued ETFs [57][60]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation, particularly for investors with a risk rating of around 4 stars, suggesting that there are still undervalued stock assets available for investment [2][5]. - It recommends a stock-to-bond allocation ratio based on the formula "100 - age," indicating that a 40-year-old should allocate approximately 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds [3][5]. - The article notes that if the market rises, the stock portion can yield good returns, while if the market falls, there is still an opportunity to increase positions when the rating reaches 5 stars [4][5]. Group 2 - After determining the stock-bond ratio, the next step is to select assets, highlighting that there are generally undervalued stocks available for investment, such as actively selected stocks and certain value-style indices within index funds [6]. - It discusses three main types of bond funds: short-term bonds, long-term pure bonds, and fixed income plus, with a note that long-term pure bonds are currently not undervalued, while short-term bonds are expected to have low volatility and overall growth by 2025 [8]. - The article suggests a simple investment option like "monthly salary treasure," which has already diversified stock and bond assets, making it suitable for investors at the 4-star rating stage [8].

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline of 1% during the day but rebounded significantly before closing, with the CSI All Share Index rising by 1.5% [1] - Both large, medium, and small-cap stocks saw an increase, although small-cap stocks rose less [2][3] - Recently, the ChiNext and STAR Market have been strong, attracting funds, which led to a decline in small-cap stocks [5] Growth vs. Value Styles - Growth styles have been strong, while value styles have been relatively weak [6] - Dividend and value indices saw slight increases, indicating some resilience in value stocks [7] - The A-share market has shown a pattern of style rotation, with growth styles outperforming value styles in certain years [21][32] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market continued to decline, particularly in technology stocks, while dividend and value styles remained stable [8][10] - Since the Chinese New Year, the Hong Kong market has experienced a stronger rally compared to A-shares, with technology stocks in Hong Kong outperforming A-share technology stocks by 20-30% at one point [11] - A-shares have recently shown a catch-up rally, while the Hong Kong market remains relatively subdued [12] Bond Market Insights - The bond market has been weak, with long-term pure bonds experiencing significant declines [15][16] - The yield on 10-year government bonds is currently around 1.7-1.8%, which is not considered attractive compared to historical averages [17][18] - Fixed income plus products, which include some equity exposure, have remained stable this year [19] Historical Performance of Growth and Value Styles - Historical data shows that from 2020 to 2025, the performance of dividend low-volatility and ChiNext indices has varied significantly, with growth styles outperforming in some years and value styles in others [24][28][30] - The average return of dividend low-volatility stocks since early 2020 is approximately 68%, while the ChiNext has returned around 62% [30][31] - The rotation of styles typically occurs every 3-5 years, with recent years favoring value styles [34][37] Investment Strategies - The company suggests a balanced approach to investing in both growth and value styles, adjusting the allocation based on valuation levels [65][66] - Growth styles are likened to offensive strategies, while value styles are seen as defensive, requiring different management approaches [66][67] - The company emphasizes the importance of patience and understanding market cycles for long-term investment success [56][76]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations, with value styles showing relative strength during these times, indicating potential investment opportunities in value-oriented stocks and funds [3][4][10]. Market Overview - The overall market slightly declined, with the CSI All Share Index down by 0.13% [1]. - Large-cap stocks saw slight gains, while small-cap stocks experienced more significant declines [2]. - The pharmaceutical sector showed overall gains, contrasting with the slight decline in consumer stocks that had previously risen [5][6]. Investment Strategies - In the current market environment, it is advised to maintain a steady position and avoid frequent trading to prevent losses [8][11]. - The recent market behavior resembles the trends observed between 2013 and 2017, suggesting that undervalued stocks across various categories will eventually have their performance phases [9][10]. Value Style Performance - Value styles, including dividend and free cash flow stocks, have seen an increase, although the overall rise has been modest this year [4][18][19]. - The A-share CSI Dividend Index showed a slight decline from the beginning of the year until August 21, while the Hong Kong dividend stocks have seen some gains, albeit limited [20][21]. Fund Performance and Strategies - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" strategy is currently undervalued, with 40% of its portfolio in value-oriented stocks [17]. - The bond portion of the "Monthly Salary Treasure" strategy is focused on medium to short-term bonds, which are currently more favorable compared to long-term bonds that have seen significant declines this year [28][30]. - The strategy includes an automatic rebalancing feature to optimize returns by adjusting the stock and bond allocations based on market movements [28][30]. Valuation Insights - A valuation table for dividend indices has been created for reference, highlighting various metrics such as earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and return on equity [22][41]. - The current valuation of value styles has not improved significantly since the beginning of the year, indicating potential for future appreciation as market conditions evolve [27]. Upcoming Events - A live session is scheduled to discuss historical bull and bear market characteristics and current market stages, providing insights for investors [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the differences in risk and reward between fund managers and ordinary investors, highlighting that while fund managers may benefit from aggressive strategies, ordinary investors should focus on absolute returns to avoid long-term losses that could impact their purchasing power [3][5]. Group 1 - Ordinary investors take on greater risks without guaranteed rewards, unlike fund managers who can see significant performance boosts and income increases from aggressive strategies [3]. - Fund managers prioritize relative returns, aiming to outperform other funds, while ordinary investors should focus on absolute returns to ensure profitability [4][5]. - The article advocates for investing during undervalued phases to minimize losses, suggesting that even in a rising market, investors should consider fixed-income products to balance their portfolios [6]. Group 2 - The article mentions various investment advisory combinations available, including index enhancement and active selection, designed to simplify investment for individuals [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that rental income is suitable for regular investment due to its periodic generation [2] - Solely relying on rental cash flow is unstable as rental income can fluctuate and may encounter vacancy periods, leading to cash flow interruptions [3] - The rental yield in most cities ranges from 1% to 3%, while cash flow yields from financial assets like monthly salary treasure advisory combinations and dividend stocks are significantly higher [3] Group 2 - Rental income can be invested in financial assets to diversify cash flow sources [4] - Steps for rental planning include renting out excess family properties to obtain regular rental income [5] - The rental income should be regularly invested into cash-generating financial assets, such as monthly salary treasure and dividend funds, to create complementary cash flows [6][7] - Over time, as the rental income is reinvested, the cash flow from funds may eventually surpass that from real estate rentals, providing a diversified cash flow to meet family living expenses [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "missing out" on market gains, emphasizing that for ordinary investors, missing out is not a risk, while losing money is the real concern [2][10]. Group 1: Fund Managers' Perspective - For fund managers, missing out on market gains poses a significant risk, as it can lead to underperformance compared to the market, resulting in investor dissatisfaction and a substantial decrease in fund size [4][6]. - A decline in fund size directly impacts the management fees collected by fund companies, leading to reduced revenue [5]. - To mitigate this risk, many fund managers opt to maintain a high stock allocation consistently, aiming for excess returns through careful stock selection [7][8]. Group 2: Ordinary Investors' Perspective - Ordinary investors face different circumstances; they do not receive rewards for taking on greater risks, and aggressive investment strategies do not guarantee higher returns [11][14]. - Ordinary investors often need to liquidate assets for cash flow to meet living expenses, which can be problematic during market downturns [15][16]. - Unlike fund managers, who focus on relative performance against other funds, ordinary investors should prioritize absolute returns to ensure each investment is profitable and does not negatively impact their purchasing power [20][17]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of investing during undervalued market phases to minimize potential losses [21][23]. - It highlights that purchasing high-quality assets at lower valuations can lead to higher long-term returns while reducing risk [22][23]. - As of August 12, 2025, the market is still considered relatively cheap, presenting an opportunity for investors to accumulate quality assets [26].