近期，光模块龙头企业密集发布2025年度业绩预告。 例如，中际旭创股份有限公司（以下简称"中际旭创"）预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润98 亿元至118亿元，同比增长89.5%至128.17%；成都新易盛通信技术股份有限公司预计2025年净利润同比 增长231.24%至248.86%；苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司预计2025年净利润同比增长40%至60%。 中国银河证券在研报中表示，相关龙头公司业绩普遍超预期，光模块景气度"仍旧处于上升通道中"。 1.6T上量时代开启 "1.6T光模块在2025年第三季度开始正式向重点客户出货，第四季度上量更加迅速，开启了1.6T上量的 时代。"在2月1日披露的投资者关系活动记录表中，中际旭创方面这样描述其最新高端产品的销售进 展。 具体来看，光模块是数据中心内部实现服务器、交换机等设备间高速互联的核心部件，其速率（如 800G、1.6T）决定了每秒能传输多少数据。近年来，800G光模块已成为全球大型云厂商建设AI算力集 群的主流选择，而1.6T光模块正是这条技术路径的下一个里程碑。 中际旭创方面预计，今年1.6T光模块需求规模较去年将出现"较大增长"，公司一季度订 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the demand potential for 1.6T pluggable optical modules may be underestimated, with the growth pace likely to exceed market expectations, benefiting Zhongji Xuchuang in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The 1.6T pluggable optical module market is expected to see significant growth, driven by the ongoing strong demand for 800G and the clear upgrade path to 1.6T due to increasing network bandwidth needs from AI systems [4]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its revenue forecasts for Zhongji Xuchuang, projecting a 15% increase in 2026 revenue from 61.39 billion to 70.80 billion and a 17% increase in 2027 revenue from 75.77 billion to 88.55 billion [4][6]. Group 2: Profitability Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Zhongji Xuchuang have been increased, with 2026 net profit rising from 16.80 billion to 19.78 billion and 2027 net profit from 20.35 billion to 23.87 billion, reflecting an 18% and 17% increase respectively [5][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 55% in sales and 66% in profits from 2025 to 2027, with a conservative gross margin estimate of around 40% [6]. Group 3: Competitive Position - Morgan Stanley maintains that the impact of next-generation technology, such as Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), will not be disruptive in the short term, with large-scale application expected only after 2027, allowing pluggable optical modules to remain the mainstream technology [2][8]. - Even after 2027, Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its expertise in optics and component integration, as well as strong relationships with key customers [9]. Group 4: Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its rating for Zhongji Xuchuang to "Overweight," raising the target price from 366 to 430 yuan based on a 20x one-year forward P/E ratio, indicating potential for valuation improvement [7].