Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the ramp-up of 1.6T pluggable optical modules will exceed market expectations, driven by the increasing bandwidth demand from AI systems and ASIC solutions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Demand and Revenue Forecast - Morgan Stanley has raised the revenue forecast for Zhongji Xuchuang to 70.8 billion yuan for 2026 and 88.6 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting an 18% and 17% increase respectively [6][7]. - The demand potential for 1.6T pluggable optical modules may still be underestimated, with a significant upward potential in shipment volumes from 2026 to 2027 [3][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the strong ongoing demand for 800G and the clear upgrade path to 1.6T due to the exponential growth in network bandwidth requirements driven by AI systems [6][8]. Group 2: Profitability and Financial Metrics - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Zhongji Xuchuang have been increased to 19.8 billion yuan for 2026 and 23.9 billion yuan for 2027, with earnings per share estimates raised to 17.8 yuan for 2026 [7][8]. - The compound annual growth rate for sales and profits from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 55% and 66% respectively, indicating strong financial performance [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Technology Transition - Concerns regarding the disruptive impact of next-generation technology, such as Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), are deemed unfounded in the short term, with large-scale application expected only after 2027 [4][11]. - Zhongji Xuchuang is positioned to remain a key player even after the potential transition to next-generation technologies, thanks to its expertise in optical and component integration and strong relationships with leading customers [12][13]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Position - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhongji Xuchuang, raising the target price from 366 yuan to 430 yuan based on a 20x one-year forward P/E ratio [9]. - The stock currently corresponds to a 19x P/E ratio for 2027, indicating room for valuation improvement compared to peers trading at 25-30x [9].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the demand potential for 1.6T pluggable optical modules may be underestimated, with the growth pace likely to exceed market expectations, benefiting Zhongji Xuchuang in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The 1.6T pluggable optical module market is expected to see significant growth, driven by the ongoing strong demand for 800G and the clear upgrade path to 1.6T due to increasing network bandwidth needs from AI systems [4]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its revenue forecasts for Zhongji Xuchuang, projecting a 15% increase in 2026 revenue from 61.39 billion to 70.80 billion and a 17% increase in 2027 revenue from 75.77 billion to 88.55 billion [4][6]. Group 2: Profitability Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Zhongji Xuchuang have been increased, with 2026 net profit rising from 16.80 billion to 19.78 billion and 2027 net profit from 20.35 billion to 23.87 billion, reflecting an 18% and 17% increase respectively [5][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 55% in sales and 66% in profits from 2025 to 2027, with a conservative gross margin estimate of around 40% [6]. Group 3: Competitive Position - Morgan Stanley maintains that the impact of next-generation technology, such as Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), will not be disruptive in the short term, with large-scale application expected only after 2027, allowing pluggable optical modules to remain the mainstream technology [2][8]. - Even after 2027, Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its expertise in optics and component integration, as well as strong relationships with key customers [9]. Group 4: Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its rating for Zhongji Xuchuang to "Overweight," raising the target price from 366 to 430 yuan based on a 20x one-year forward P/E ratio, indicating potential for valuation improvement [7].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The article provides an overview of the optoelectronic chip industry in China, highlighting key listed companies, their market positions, product offerings, and revenue projections for 2024. Group 1: Overview of Listed Companies - The main listed companies in the optoelectronic chip sector include Yuanjie Technology, Changguang Huaxin, Guangxun Technology, Shijia Photon, and Huagong Technology [1]. - The number of listed companies in the optoelectronic chip industry in A-shares is relatively small [1]. Group 2: Company Information and Market Position - Huagong Technology, established in 1999, has the highest registered capital at 1,005.50 million yuan, while Yuanjie Technology, founded in 2013, has the lowest at 85.95 million yuan [8]. - Guangxun Technology leads in patent numbers with 1,765, while Yuanjie Technology has the least with 34 [8]. - In terms of total market capitalization, Huagong Technology is at 50.335 billion yuan, while Changguang Huaxin is the lowest at 13.385 billion yuan [8]. Group 3: Product Layout and Capacity Comparison - Yuanjie Technology focuses on 100G EML laser chips and 25G DFB chips, with a planned production capacity of approximately 960,000 chips per year by 2024 and 20 million chips per year by 2026 [11][12]. - Changguang Huaxin plans to produce 100 million chips annually starting in 2025, covering multiple wavelength bands [11]. - Guangxun Technology has an annual production capacity of 120 million chips [11]. Group 4: Revenue Projections - For 2024, Yuanjie Technology's optoelectronic chip business is projected to account for nearly 100% of its total revenue, while Changguang Huaxin and Shijia Photon have relatively lower contributions [13]. Group 5: Business Planning and Development Strategies - Companies are focusing on technology research and development, product layout, market expansion, and capacity construction, with each having distinct strategies [13]. - Yuanjie Technology aims to enhance its high-end product offerings and expand into data center markets, while Changguang Huaxin is developing next-generation optical chip platform technologies [14].