1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a rebound in both port and inland markets, a slight strengthening of the basis, slow unloading, and a continuous two - week inventory drawdown at ports with a large floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory build - up later. It was difficult to reduce imports from December to January, and the futures contract 01 offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports. It is recommended to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [2]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical sectors are reducing inventory, and social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The basis of contract 09 is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price spreads are volatile, and LD is weakening. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [7]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is volatile, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on contract 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The basis of contract 01 is maintained at - 270, and the ex - works basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the mid - upstream is continuously accumulating. Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. The static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the thermal coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price fluctuated between 2092 - 2123, and the daily change on the 16th was - 3 compared to the previous day. The Northwest discounted - to - futures price decreased from 2580 to 2555 on the 16th, with a daily change of - 18 [2]. - **Key Information**: Iranian plants' shutdown, port and inland market rebound, basis strengthening, slow unloading, port inventory drawdown, and expected future inventory build - up. The futures contract 01 offers an import risk - free arbitrage opportunity [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 745 on some days. The North China LL price decreased from 6530 to 6460, with a daily change of - 20 on the 16th compared to the previous day. The East China LD price decreased from 8500 to 8250 [7]. - **Key Information**: Neutral inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies, upstream and coal - chemical inventory reduction, stable social inventory, neutral downstream inventory. Stable overseas markets, import profit around - 200, weakening LD, and recent decrease in domestic linear production [7]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6050 to 6030 on the 16th. The East China PP price fluctuated between 6085 - 6220, and the daily change on the 16th was - 60 compared to the previous day [7]. - **Key Information**: Upstream and mid - stream inventory reduction, neutral non - standard price spread, good export performance, PDH profit around - 400, stable powder production start - up rate, and expected slight increase in subsequent supply [7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From December 10 - 16, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2550 to 2450 on the 16th. The calcium carbide - based East China PVC price increased from 4310 to 4470, with a daily change of 50 on the 16th compared to the previous day [7]. - **Key Information**: Stable basis, seasonal weakening of downstream operating rates, mid - upstream inventory accumulation, seasonal overhauls in Northwest plants, and attention to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4 [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's trade performance in the first three quarters of the year, with total imports and exports reaching 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [2] - Exports amounted to 19.95 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.1%, while imports totaled 13.66 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.2% [2] - The spokesperson from the General Administration of Customs noted that the decline in import growth was influenced by falling prices of certain bulk commodities in the international market, although the quantity index for imports increased by 0.6% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - In terms of monthly trends, imports have shown continuous growth for four consecutive months as of September [2] - Driven by domestic production and consumption demand, the import volumes of crude oil and metal ores increased by 2.6% and 4.2% respectively, while the import values of food, tobacco, and cultural products grew by 10.2% and 9.4% [2] - The easing of foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector led to a 1.1% increase in imports from foreign-invested enterprises during the first three quarters [2] Group 3 - The article emphasizes China's proactive approach to expanding imports, with the country opening its market wider and sharing development opportunities with more trade partners [3] - In the first three quarters, China approved the import of 135 new agricultural and food products from 50 countries and regions [3] - China implemented a 100% zero-tariff policy on products from the least developed countries with which it has diplomatic relations, resulting in a 9.7% increase in imports from these nations [3]