Core Insights - The report from Shanxi Securities indicates a shift in coal market sentiment due to policy changes aimed at reducing "involution," leading to an improved risk appetite in the short term [1] - The coal market is expected to see improvements in the third quarter, particularly in thermal coal, as long-term contract price discrepancies are resolved [1] Group 1: Coal Market Trends - The cumulative import volume of coal from January to August has decreased by 12.2%, continuing a trend of contraction, although the rate of decline is slowing [1] - In August, the total coal import price was $66 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline, with a slight month-on-month decrease of $0.84 per ton [1] - All coal types showed positive month-on-month growth in August, with thermal coal and coking coal maintaining negative year-on-year growth [1] Group 2: Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic coal prices experienced fluctuations in August, with a slight increase in production compared to the previous month, but overall production remains contracted year-on-year [2] - The domestic supply gap continues to support the demand for imported coal, with all four major coal types showing an increase in imports [2] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Import Outlook - The price difference between domestic and imported coal is expected to drive further imports, especially if domestic supply continues to contract [3] - Although the import price did not increase in August, the reduction in the rate of price decline suggests potential for future price recovery [3]