研究早观点 2026 年 2 月 9 日 星期一 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 4,065.58 | -0.25 | | 深证成指 | | 13,906.73 | -0.33 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,643.60 | -0.57 | | 中小板指 | | 8,447.99 | 0.28 | | 创业板指 | | 3,236.46 | -0.73 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,422.41 | -0.71 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】煤炭：行业事件点评：印尼矿商暂停现货出口，减产落 地超市场预期 【山证煤炭】兖矿能源（600188.SH）点评-印尼煤出口暂停催化海外 煤价，公司海外业务有望受益 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 【投资要点】 【山证煤炭】兖矿能源（600188.S ...

石油产品进口总量从11.10万吨增加至11.87万吨，其中柴油占进口总量的73.8%，无铅汽油占11.0%，轻 质燃料油及煤油占8.9%，其他成品油占6.3%。(驻波黑使馆经商处) 同期，烟煤产量为25.98万吨，较2024年12月的37.89万吨显著减少；褐煤产量则从11.71万吨增至13.21万 吨；焦炭产量由4.02万吨下降至2.14万吨。 波黑国家台1月27日报道。波黑联邦统计局数据显示，2025年12月该实体总发电量为736吉瓦时，较2024 年同月的773吉瓦时有所下降。水电占总发电量的44.1%，火电占49.9%，风电占6.0%。 ...

Core Insights - Mongolia's total import and export value in 2025 is projected to be $27.014 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [1] - The export value is estimated at $15.7 billion, down 0.5% year-on-year, while the import value is expected to be $11.3 billion, decreasing by 2.6% [1] - The export structure is highly concentrated, with coal, copper, molybdenum, fluorite, iron ore, zinc ore, and oil accounting for 99.2% of total exports [1] Import and Export Breakdown - In 2025, Mongolia will import goods from 158 countries and regions, with China (40.7%), Russia (24.5%), Japan (9.6%), South Korea (4.1%), the United States (3.7%), and Germany (2.3%) being the top contributors [1] - The concentration of imports indicates a reliance on a few key trading partners, particularly China and Russia [1]

Core Insights - The total electricity production in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina for November 2025 is reported to be 694 GWh, a decrease from 755 GWh in the same month of 2024 [1] - Hydropower contributes 40.9% to the total electricity production, while thermal power accounts for 51.4%, and wind power makes up 7.7% [1] Electricity Production - In November 2025, the electricity production breakdown is as follows: hydropower at 40.9%, thermal power at 51.4%, and wind power at 7.7% [1] - The total electricity production has decreased by 8.1% compared to November 2024 [1] Coal and Oil Production - Coal production in the Federation for November 2025 is reported at 25.88 million tons, with lignite at 9.92 million tons and coke at 1.86 million tons, all showing a decline compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Oil product imports in November 2025 total 10.19 million tons, with diesel making up 75.7%, unleaded gasoline at 10.8%, heavy oil and ultra-light fuel oil at 6.2%, and other petroleum derivatives at 7.3% [1]

Core Insights - The industrial production value of Mongolia reached 47.1 trillion tugriks (approximately 94.2 billion RMB) from January to November 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [1] Industry Structure - The manufacturing sector's production value was 7.5 trillion tugriks (approximately 15 billion RMB), with significant growth in the food industry at 17.6% year-on-year and non-metallic mineral products at 20.5% [1] Mining Sector Performance - The physical output of mining products such as brown coal, zinc, iron concentrate, fluorite, iron ore, and fluorite concentrate increased by 3.6% to 66.6% year-on-year; however, the production of unrefined gold, anthracite, crude oil, and silver concentrate saw a decline of 1.1% to 35.4% [1] Manufacturing Product Trends - Key manufacturing products like liquid milk, cathode copper, cement, flour, lime, and combed cashmere experienced a substantial increase in output, ranging from 2.9 times to 3.4 times year-on-year; conversely, the production of livestock meat, metal billets, water, beverages, juice, white liquor, cashmere knitwear, pure alcohol, cigarettes, and briquettes decreased by 0.6% to 49.2% [1] Sales Performance - The total sales of industrial products reached 51.8 trillion tugriks (approximately 103.6 billion RMB), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.5%, with mining sales increasing by 7.4% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of A for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal import volume continues to show a contraction trend, with a cumulative decrease of 12.0% from January to November 2025. The import coal volume has maintained a negative growth rate for nine consecutive months, with November showing a year-on-year decline of 19.88% but a month-on-month increase of 5.53% [2]. - The average import price for all coal types in November was $73 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline but a month-on-month increase of $1.42 per ton. All coal types experienced a significant decrease in price compared to the same period last year, with a notable month-on-month increase in prices, particularly for thermal coal [2][4]. - The report suggests that the reduction in import volume coupled with an increase in price may indicate tighter overseas supply and demand. However, the domestic coal price increase is believed to be more reliant on domestic thermal coal stockpiling rather than overseas supply constraints [4]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - The cumulative import volume of coal from January to November 2025 shows a significant contraction, with November's import volume reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.88% [2]. - The report highlights that all major coal types have shown month-on-month increases in import volume, with notable contributions from Mongolia, Russia, and Indonesia [2]. Price Trends - The report notes that the average import price for coal in November was $73 per ton, with a month-on-month increase of $1.42 per ton. This price trend indicates a recovery in coal prices despite a year-on-year decline [2][4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued improvements in the fourth quarter performance, with potential for price recovery in 2026. It suggests that the current stock price decline enhances dividend value, presenting a buying opportunity [5]. - The report also indicates a potential reduction in coal exports from Indonesia due to expected export tariffs, which may impact future import volumes [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Shanxi Securities indicates that the price of all coal types for imports has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, with an expectation of performance improvement in the coal industry for Q4, and potential recovery in 2026 if prices remain high [1] - The trend of shrinking import coal volume continues to slow down, with a cumulative growth rate of -12.0% from January to November, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.88% in November, although there was a month-on-month increase of 5.53% [1] - In November, the import price of all coal types was $73 per ton, maintaining a year-on-year decline, but with a month-on-month increase of $1.42 per ton [1] Group 2 - The November coal import characteristics show a "reduction in volume and increase in price," suggesting a potential tightening of overseas supply and demand, although domestic coal prices have increased more significantly than overseas prices [2] - There is an expectation of continued reduction in Indonesian coal imports due to the planned imposition of an export tax by the Indonesian government, with rates expected to be between 1-5% starting next year [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Categories Price Information - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan is $567.50 per ton, down 0.70% from the previous value [1] - The price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia is $41.07 per ton, up 1.37% [1] - The ex - factory average price of ethane in East China is 5,800 yuan per ton, down 3.33% [1] - The spot price of methanol MA is 2,107.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The closing price of DCE EG's main contract is 3,882 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1] - The settlement price of DCE EG's main contract is 3,893 yuan per ton, up 0.57% [1] - The closing price of DCE EG's near - month contract is 3,850 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [1] - The settlement price of DCE EG's near - month contract is 3,819 yuan per ton, up 0.05% [1] - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China is 3,880 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol's domestic market is 3,885 yuan per ton, down 0.13% [1] - The price difference between near and far months is - 74 yuan per ton, a change of - 20 yuan [1] - The basis is 3 yuan per ton, a change of - 2 yuan [1] Production and Operation Conditions - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate is 63.81%, up 0.33% [1] - The operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol is 70.45%, unchanged [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol is 53.80%, up 0.84% [1] - The load rate of the polyester factory in the PTA industrial chain is 89.17%, down 0.02% [1] - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the PTA industrial chain is 71.59%, unchanged [1] Cash Flow - The after - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG is - 1,581.11 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [1] - The after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method is - 219.47 yuan per ton, a decrease of 64.16 yuan [1] Polyester Price - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY is 8,550 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY is 6,800.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber is 6,350 yuan per ton, up 0.79% [1] - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips is 5,740 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Device Information - A 900,000 - ton/year MEG device in East China has been restarted after a shutdown for maintenance in late October [1] - Another 1,000,000 - ton/year MEG device in East China is planned to shut down in early December for a relatively long time [1]

Group 1 - Shanxi Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in the coal sector for Q4, citing that coal prices are unlikely to drop significantly and there is an expectation of high operational levels [1] - The report indicates that Q4 performance may exceed that of Q3, suggesting the sector has investment value, with potential for substantial earnings recovery in 2026 if prices remain high [1] - The trend of shrinking imported coal volumes continues, with a cumulative decline of 11.0% from January to October, and October's imports showing a year-on-year decrease of 9.75% [1] Group 2 - In October, the significant reduction in imported coal volumes, particularly in thermal and lignite coal, is attributed to decreased imports from Mongolia and Indonesia, influenced by transportation issues and domestic production challenges in Mongolia [2] - The political turmoil in Mongolia and the impact of the rainy season in Indonesia have contributed to reduced coal supply, affecting China's procurement strategies [2] - There is a possibility of a rebound in Mongolian coal imports, as the Mongolian Prime Minister reiterated a target of 100 million tons of coal exports to China by 2025, although achieving this target may face challenges [3]

Core Viewpoint - The asset restructuring valued at 11.149 billion yuan is part of State Power Investment Corporation's strategy to build a coal-electricity-aluminum empire in Inner Mongolia, enhancing its operational efficiency and market position [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Restructuring Details - State Power Investment Corporation plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyinhu Coal Power Co., Ltd. from its controlling shareholder, Inner Mongolia Energy Co., Ltd., for a total price of 11.149 billion yuan [1]. - The acquisition will be financed through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, along with a fundraising plan of up to 4.5 billion yuan for ongoing projects and working capital [1][2]. - Post-acquisition, the coal production capacity will increase to 63 million tons per year, and aluminum production capacity will exceed 1.26 million tons [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The restructuring is part of a broader strategic adjustment by State Power Investment Corporation, focusing on specialized operations across its listed platforms [2]. - Other subsidiaries are also undergoing transformations, such as Yuanda Environmental Protection acquiring hydropower assets and shifting focus to nuclear power [2]. - The integration aims to create a closed-loop system where coal is converted to aluminum on-site, significantly reducing production costs by 2,300 yuan per ton compared to market prices [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Impact - The acquisition is expected to increase the total assets of State Power Investment Corporation from 54.979 billion yuan to 80.079 billion yuan, with projected revenue growth from 14.464 billion yuan to 19.942 billion yuan by mid-2025 [4]. - Analysts estimate that the transaction could enhance the annual net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately 1.867 billion yuan [5]. - However, Baiyinhu Coal Power Co., Ltd. has a high debt level, with total liabilities reaching 16.9 billion yuan and a debt ratio of 67% as of mid-2025, raising concerns about financial stability [5][6]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The merger reflects an accelerating trend of asset securitization in the power industry, with state-owned enterprises increasingly optimizing their asset structures [7]. - The focus has shifted from merely filling funding gaps to strategically enhancing asset structures, particularly in the renewable energy sector [7]. - The restructuring also indicates a renewed recognition of the value of traditional energy sources, as coal prices stabilize and the role of coal in the new power system is reassessed [7].