山西证券发布研报称，随着反内卷带来的政策转向，短期煤炭市场风险偏好提升，弹性标的排序靠前。 动力煤方面，随着长协价格倒挂解除，预计上半年因长协兑现率较差而导致的产销比恶化和累库现象将 在三季度实现改善。炼焦煤方面，金九银十需求预期不差，若有供给扰动，价格存在反弹预期。 价差有望继续拉动进口，关注海外价格走势 山西证券主要观点如下： 进口价格走势在一定程度上显示出国内需求带动海外价格提升，虽然8月的进口增量仍然没有带动进口 价格的提升，但该行注意到进口价格环比降价幅度有所减少，同时部分煤种环比回升。反内卷政策持续 发酵，若国内供应继续收缩，内贸煤和进口煤价差的背离或继续带动进口量回暖。 风险提示：国内需求不及预期，国内供给显著增加，国际煤价大幅下跌 进口煤量收缩趋势继续放缓，进口价下降 进口量方面，1-8月累计增速实现-12.2%，累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势;尽管8月当月同比连续6个月 保持负增速，但同比负增速持续边际放缓、环比呈现增长幅度扩大，其中8月进口煤同比降6.76%、环 比增20.02%。分煤种来看，所有煤种环比均为正增长，同比方面动力煤和炼焦煤维持负增长。动力煤 环比增量主要来印尼、澳大利亚、俄罗 ...

煤炭 煤炭进口数据拆解 领先大市-A(维持) 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 投资要点： 数据拆解： 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 进口煤量收缩趋势继续放缓，进口价下降。进口量方面，1-8 月累计增 速实现-12.2%，累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势；尽管 8 月当月同比连续 6 个月保持负增速，但同比负增速持续边际放缓、环比呈现增长幅度扩大，其 中 8 月进口煤同比降 6.76%、环比增 20.02%。分煤种来看，所有煤种环比均 为正增长，同比方面动力煤和炼焦煤维持负增长。动力煤环比增量主要来印 尼、澳大利亚、俄罗斯；炼焦煤环比增量主要来自外蒙古；褐煤环比增量主 要来自印度尼西亚；无烟煤环比增量主要来自俄罗斯。价格方面，8 月当月 全煤种进口价格实现 66 美元/吨，维持同比回落趋势，8 月当月环比降低-0.84 美元/吨。分煤种看，全煤种进口价格较去年同期均有较大幅度下降，8 月当 月炼焦煤进口价格环比小幅增加。 相关报告： 点评与投资建议： 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 8 月 ： 供 给 收 缩 ， 煤 价 超 预 期 上 涨 国内缺口继续提振进口需求。8 月内贸煤价格先涨后跌，国内原煤产量 同比维持收缩 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View - No information provided in the document. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/9/25 was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41% from the previous value [1]. - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on 2025/9/24 was $841.00 per ton, down 0.59% from the previous value [1]. - The ex - factory price of cycloethane in East China remained unchanged at 6300 yuan per ton [1]. - The spot price of methanol MA on 2025/9/25 was 2255 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - The tax - included pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on 2025/9/25 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of DCE EG主力合约 on 2025/9/25 was 4246 yuan per ton, up 0.28% [1]. - The settlement price of DCE EG主力合约 on 2025/9/25 was 4249 yuan per ton, up 0.52% [1]. - The closing price of DCE EG near - month contract on 2025/9/25 was 4175 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1]. - The settlement price of DCE EG near - month contract on 2025/9/25 was 4175 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1]. - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China on 2025/9/25 was 4300 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (MEG) inner - market on 2025/9/25 was 4305 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The near - far month price difference on 2025/9/25 was 74 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/9/25 was 8475 yuan per ton, down 0.59% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/9/25 was 6850 yuan per ton, down 0.72% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/9/25 was 665 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [1]. - The basis on 2025/9/25 was 59 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/9/25 was 5790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [1]. Operating Conditions - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol on 2025/9/25 was 62.6%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) on 2025/9/25 was 65.72%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of ethylene glycol (coal - based) on 2025/9/25 was 58.14%, unchanged [1]. - The load rate of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain on 2025/9/25 was 87.81%, up 0.08% [1]. - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the PTA industrial chain on 2025/9/25 was 69.19%, up 1.64% [1]. Gross Margin - The after - tax gross margin of MTO MEG on 2025/9/25 was 1519.03 yuan per ton, down 4.66 yuan from the previous value [1]. - The after - tax gross margin of the coal - based synthesis gas method device on 2025/9/25 was 293.81 yuan per ton, up 6.64 yuan from the previous value [1]. External Market - The external market price of naphtha - based ethylene glycol on 2025/9/24 was $130.86 per ton, up $10.40 from the previous value [1]. - The external market price of ethylene - based ethylene glycol on 2025/9/24 was $139.65 per ton, down $3.25 from the previous value [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $597.50 per ton, up 0.31% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 22, 2025, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $846.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 24, 2025, the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,300 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the spot price of methanol MA was 2,250 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's主力合约 was 4,212 yuan per ton, down 0.66% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,214 yuan per ton, down 0.82% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the closing price of DCE EG's near - month contract was 4,200 yuan per ton, down 3.18% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,139 yuan per ton, down 4.59% [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the market price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China was 4,280 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of MEG was 4,290 yuan per ton, down 1.04% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the near - far month price difference was 75 yuan per ton, down from 89 yuan per ton; the basis was 78 yuan per ton, down from 95 yuan per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,400 yuan per ton, down 0.23% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.35% from the previous value [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, with no change; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,900 yuan per ton, with no change [1]. Operating Conditions - As of September 23, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 62.62%, up 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 65.72%, up 0.72 percentage points; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 58.14%, with no change [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the load rate of polyester factories in the PTA industrial chain was 89.00%, with no change; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.55%, with no change [1]. Cash Flow - As of September 22, 2025, the external - market cash flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - $120.46 per ton, down from - $119.50 per ton; the external - market cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol was $137.90 per ton, up from $135.90 per ton [1]. - As of September 23, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of MTO - based MEG was 1,518.45 yuan per ton, up 46.46 yuan per ton; the after - tax gross profit of coal - based MEG was 278.32 yuan per ton, down 59.73 yuan per ton [1].

Group 1: Price Information - The spot price of bottle - grade chips is 5820 yuan/ton, with a - 1% change [1] - The CFR Japan naphtha price is 96.5 yuan/ton, with a - 980% change [1] - The Northeast Asia ethylene price is 46.8 yuan/ton, with a - 500% change [1] - The ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China is 6300 yuan/ton [1] - The methanol MA spot price is 4022 yuan/ton, with a - 4500% change [1] - The tax - included pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 90.2 yuan/ton, with a - 900% change [1] - The DCE EG主力合约收盘价 is 5042 yuan/ton, with a - 6000% change; the settlement price is 5042 yuan/ton, with a - 8000% change; the near - month contract closing price is 3043 yuan/ton, with a - 3000% change; the near - month contract settlement price is 3043 yuan/ton, with a - 3000% change [1] - The market intermediate price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China is 6043 yuan/ton, with a - 6000% change [1] - The CCFEI price index of MEG inner - plate is 4043 yuan/ton, with a - 400% change [1] - The near - far month price difference of MEG is 9.5 yuan/ton, with a change from 6.0 to 23.0 [1] - The basis of MEG is 8.7 yuan/ton, with a change from 7.0 to 10 [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY is 5085 yuan/ton, with a - 5000% change [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY is 5070 yuan/ton, with a - 0000% change [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber is 4064 yuan/ton, with a - 6000% change [1] Group 2: Operating Conditions - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate is 2.6%, with a change from 1.2 [1] - The operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol is 5.6%, with a change from 3.2 [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol is 8.5%, with a change from 8.4 [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories is 9.8%, with a change from 9.0 [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 7.6%, with a change from 7.5 [1] Group 3: Cash - flow Situation - The post - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG is 497 yuan/ton, with a change from 1402 [1] - The post - tax device gross profit of coal - based syngas method is 66.3 yuan/ton [1] - The external - plate price of naphtha - made ethylene glycol is 19.0 yuan/ton, with a change from - 12955 [1] - The external - plate price of ethylene - made ethylene glycol is 39.5 yuan/ton, with a change from 13150 [1]

Group 1: Price Information - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/9/18 was $599.38 per ton, down 1.56% from the previous value [1] - Price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia on 2025/9/17 was $851.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/9/19 was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/9/18 was 2,280 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Pit - mouth price (tax - included brown coal) of coal (Q3500 in Inner Mongolia) on 2025/9/18 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,268 yuan per ton, down 0.67% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,282 yuan per ton, down 0.16% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG in East China) on 2025/9/18 was 4,370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic on 2025/9/18 was 4,345 yuan per ton, down 0.80% from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/9/18 was 56 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan from the previous value [1] - Basis on 2025/9/18 was 77 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/9/18 was 8,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/9/18 was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/9/18 was 6,465 yuan per ton, down 0.08% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/9/18 was 5,820 yuan per ton, down 0.51% from the previous value [1] Group 2: Operating Conditions - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (comprehensive) on 2025/9/18 was 61.32%, down 0.88% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) on 2025/9/18 was 63.52%, down 1.48% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (coal - based) on 2025/9/18 was 58.14%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/9/18 was 89.00%, up 0.22% from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on 2025/9/18 was 67.55%, up 2.01% from the previous value [1] Group 3: Cash - flow and Gross - profit Situation - Cash - flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $126.19 per ton, down 0.69% from the previous value [1] - Cash - flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $139.15 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG on 2025/9/18 was - 1,485.02 yuan per ton, down 19.74% from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method device on 2025/9/18 was 382.30 yuan per ton, down 25.66 yuan from the previous value [1]

Commodity Price Information - Crude oil price on September 16, 2025, was $604.88 per ton, up 0.60% from the previous day [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price on September 16, 2025, was $851 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - East China ethylene oxide ex - factory price on September 16, 2025, was $6300 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Inner Mongolia brown coal price on September 16, 2025, was $290 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Main contract settlement price on September 16, 2025, was $4298 per ton, up 0.49% from the previous day [1] - Near - month contract closing price on September 16, 2025, was $4338 per ton, up 0.81% from the previous day [1] - Inner - market ethylene glycol price on September 16, 2025, was $4380 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Near - far month price difference on September 16, 2025, was - $21 per ton [1] - Ethylene glycol comprehensive price difference on September 16, 2025, was - $14 per ton [1] Operating Rate and Load Rate - Oil - based ethylene glycol operating rate on September 16, 2025, was 65% [1] - Coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate on September 16, 2025, was 8.14% [1] - PTA factory load rate on September 16, 2025, was 88.88% [1] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA textile machine industry load rate on September 16, 2025, was 65.54% [1] Other Information - Outer - market oil - based ethylene glycol price on September 16, 2025, was $126.89 per ton, a decrease of $5.64 from the previous day [1] - Outer - market ethylene price on September 16, 2025, was $141.11 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method on September 16, 2025, was $1511.08 per ton, a decrease of $13.8 from the previous day [1] - Polyester price index on September 16, 2025, was $8550 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Polyester staple fiber price index on September 16, 2025, was $640 per ton, up 0.8% from the previous day [1] - Bottle - grade chip price index on September 16, 2025, was $5850 per ton, up 0.34% from the previous day [1]

Economic Growth - Russia's GDP grew by 1.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] Natural Gas Production - Total natural gas production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year to 382.9 billion cubic meters [1] - Ural Federal District produced 303 billion cubic meters, down 4.6% [1] - Far Eastern Federal District produced 31.4 billion cubic meters, down 8.6% [1] - Siberian Federal District produced 27.4 billion cubic meters, up 26.7% [1] - Volga Federal District produced 11.2 billion cubic meters, down 2.4% [1] - Southern Federal District produced 7 billion cubic meters, down 11% [1] - Northwestern Federal District produced 2.8 billion cubic meters, down 6.1% [1] - North Caucasian Federal District produced 0.148 billion cubic meters, down 16.4% [1] Coal Production - Total coal production increased by 0.6% year-on-year to 248 million tons [1] - Anthracite production decreased by 2.1% to 12.6 million tons [1] - Coking coal production decreased by 8.6% to 59.5 million tons [1] - Lignite production increased by 7.9% to 56.7 million tons [1] - Other coal types increased by 2.7% to 119 million tons [1] Metallurgy - Gold production increased by 4.2% [1] - Aluminum production increased by 2.9% [1] - Steel production decreased by 6.1% [1] - Non-alloy steel ingots and semi-finished products decreased by 2.5% [1] - Pig iron production decreased by 0.7% [1] Fertilizer Production - Fertilizer production increased by 6% [2] - Ammonia production increased by 4.2% [2] Automotive Industry - Passenger car production increased by 0.5% [2] - Truck production decreased by 27.4% [2] Electricity Generation - Total electricity generation decreased by 2% to 692 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - Thermal power generation decreased by 0.7% to 448 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - Nuclear power generation increased by 1.7% to 123 billion kilowatt-hours [2] - Hydropower generation decreased by 10.1% to 116 billion kilowatt-hours [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal sector, indicating expected performance leading the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal import volume has shown a slowing trend of contraction, with a cumulative decrease of 13% from January to July 2025. Despite a continuous negative growth rate for five months, July saw a year-on-year decrease of 22.94% but a month-on-month increase of 7.78% [1][3]. - The overall import price for coal types averaged $67 per ton, continuing a downward trend year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of $6.23 in July [1]. - Domestic coal production has contracted both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to an increase in import demand due to a domestic supply gap [3]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - The report highlights that all coal types have shown negative year-on-year growth, with only anthracite coal experiencing a month-on-month decline. The increase in coking coal imports is primarily from Mongolia and Russia, while thermal coal imports are mainly from Australia, and lignite imports are from Indonesia [1][3]. Price Trends - The report notes that the import prices for all coal types have significantly decreased compared to the previous year, with July showing a downward trend across all categories [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while there is an increase in import volume, the prices have not risen correspondingly, indicating a potential imbalance in the overseas supply-demand structure. The future demand for coal remains uncertain due to domestic economic conditions and the impact of the "anti-involution" campaign [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal stocks that are expected to recover in performance due to rising coal prices, highlighting companies such as Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanxi Coking Coal as key investment targets [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the provided content. It mainly shows various commodity prices, price changes, and industrial load rates. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Prices and Changes - The current price of crude oil is $575.50 per ton on August 21, 2025, with a previous value of $574.50, a change of 0.1% [1]. - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene price index is $831.00 per ton on August 21, 2025, with a previous value of $826.00, a change of 0.61% [1]. - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is $6300.00 per ton on August 21, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of methanol is $2275.00 per ton on August 21, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia is $290.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity is $4452.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $4363.00, a change of 2.04% [1]. - The settlement price of the nearby contract of a certain commodity is $4400.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of ethylene glycol in the East China market is $4460.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts is $45.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $44.00, a difference of -$89.00 [1]. - The price difference of another commodity is $38.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $91.00, a difference of -$3.00 [1]. Industrial Load Rates - The plant load rate of the PTA industry is 83.0% on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The load rate of textile machines in the Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA industry is 57.80% on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. Other Information - The external price of ethylene glycol made from naphtha is $903.8 per ton on August 19, 2025, with a previous value of $903.5, a difference of -$0.62 [1]. - The cash - flow situation shows a value of $111.9 on August 19, 2025, with a previous value of $114.9, a difference of -$3.00 [1]. - The post - tax gross profit of a certain coal - based synthesis gas method is $1425.38 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $1422.83, a difference of -$2.55 [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber is $8650.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester is $7100.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $7125.00, a change of 0.3% [1]. - The price index of polyester staple fiber is $6490.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price index of bottle - grade chips is $5900.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $5920.00, a change of 0.34% [1].