煤炭 煤炭进口数据拆解 领先大市-A(维持) 【山证煤炭】7 月：供给收缩，反内卷或 带来"温和风暴"-煤炭月度供需数据点 评 2025.8.18 【山证煤炭】煤炭行业动态点评：长协 倒挂解除，煤价预期再次提升 2025.8.7 分析师： 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 25 年 7 月进口煤量收缩趋势放缓，未来增量有待观察 2025 年 8 月 26 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 投资要点： 数据拆解： 进口煤量收缩趋势放缓，进口价下降。进口量方面，1-7 月累计增速实现 -13%，累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势；尽管 7 月当月同比连续 5 个月保持负 增速，但同比负增速出现边际放缓走势、环比呈现正增长，其中 7 月进口煤同比 降 22.94%、环比增 7.78%。分煤种来看，所有煤种同比仍然呈现负增长，但环 比方面仅无烟煤呈现负增长。炼焦煤增量主要来自外蒙古和俄国；动力煤增量主 要来澳大利亚；褐煤增量主要来自印度尼西亚。价格方面，全煤种进口价格实现 67 美元/吨，维持同比回落趋势，7 月当月环比降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the provided content. It mainly shows various commodity prices, price changes, and industrial load rates. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Prices and Changes - The current price of crude oil is $575.50 per ton on August 21, 2025, with a previous value of $574.50, a change of 0.1% [1]. - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene price index is $831.00 per ton on August 21, 2025, with a previous value of $826.00, a change of 0.61% [1]. - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is $6300.00 per ton on August 21, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of methanol is $2275.00 per ton on August 21, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia is $290.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity is $4452.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $4363.00, a change of 2.04% [1]. - The settlement price of the nearby contract of a certain commodity is $4400.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of ethylene glycol in the East China market is $4460.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts is $45.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $44.00, a difference of -$89.00 [1]. - The price difference of another commodity is $38.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $91.00, a difference of -$3.00 [1]. Industrial Load Rates - The plant load rate of the PTA industry is 83.0% on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The load rate of textile machines in the Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA industry is 57.80% on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. Other Information - The external price of ethylene glycol made from naphtha is $903.8 per ton on August 19, 2025, with a previous value of $903.5, a difference of -$0.62 [1]. - The cash - flow situation shows a value of $111.9 on August 19, 2025, with a previous value of $114.9, a difference of -$3.00 [1]. - The post - tax gross profit of a certain coal - based synthesis gas method is $1425.38 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $1422.83, a difference of -$2.55 [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber is $8650.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester is $7100.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $7125.00, a change of 0.3% [1]. - The price index of polyester staple fiber is $6490.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price index of bottle - grade chips is $5900.00 per ton on August 20, 2025, with a previous value of $5920.00, a change of 0.34% [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3) Summary by Related Catalog - **Commodity Prices and Changes** - The CFR price of naphtha in Asia on August 20, 2022, was $557 per ton, up 0.66% from the previous day [1]. - The ethylene price index in North America on August 20, 2022, remained unchanged at $826 per ton [1]. - The average ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on August 20, 2022, was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity on August 19, 2022, was $436.3 per ton, up 0.23% [1]. - The price of methanol in the East China market on August 19, 2022, was 4,440 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The price of polyester staple fiber on August 19, 2022, was 6,495 yuan per ton, up 0.31% [1]. - **Production and Operation Conditions** - The comprehensive operating rate of coal - to - ethylene glycol on August 19, 2022, was 61.09%, up 1.27 percentage points from the previous day [1]. - The operating rate of the PTA industry chain on August 19, 2022, was 87.30%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of textile machinery in Zhejiang's PTA industry on August 19, 2022, was 80.57%, unchanged [1]. - **Profit Conditions** - The after - tax gross profit of a coal - based synthesis device on August 19, 2022, was 461.95 yuan per ton [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in trade volume and value at the Nanpan Port, with a 82% increase in cargo volume to 287,100 tons and a 178% increase in cargo value to 452 million yuan in the first seven months of the year [1][2] - The Nanpan Port is strategically located in Yunnan Province, serving as a historical gateway on the ancient Southern Silk Road, which has seen a resurgence in cross-border trade due to ongoing improvements in port infrastructure [1][2] - The implementation of the "Smart Logistics 2.0" system and the completion of the "two venues in one" construction by the end of 2024 will enhance customs supervision capabilities and cargo handling capacity, promoting the integration of general trade and border trade [1][2] Group 2 - The Kunming Customs, through the Nanpan Customs, is advancing the construction of a smart customs system, focusing on precise regulation, efficient clearance, and convenient services to enhance the port's operational efficiency [2] - In the first seven months, the import of mineral products reached 2.4279 million yuan, marking a 596.9% year-on-year increase, and the port also recorded its first import of lignite [2] - The customs authority plans to continue strengthening the synergy between smart customs and smart port construction, adapting regulatory models to local conditions to support the economic development of Yunnan's ports [2]

证券代码：600844，900921 证券简称：金煤科技，金煤 B 股 编号：临 2025－036 内蒙古金煤化工科技股份有限公司 | 主要原材料名称 | 2025 年二季度平 | 2025 年一季度平 | 变动幅度（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 均进价（元/吨） | 均进价（元/吨） | | | 褐煤 | 471.95 | 524.55 | -10.03 | | 高卡煤 | 726.43 | 843.75 | -13.90 | 本公告之经营数据未经审计，公司董事会提醒投资者审慎使用上述数据。 特此公告。 2025 年二季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 公司 2025 年第二季度主要经营数据披露如下： 二、主要产品的价格变动情况（含税） | 主要产品 | 2025 年二季度平 | 2025 | 年一季度平 | 变动幅度（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 均售价（元/吨） | 均售价（元/吨） | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - No relevant content provided Group 3: Price Summary - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/8/7 was $571.00 per ton, down 1.81% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on 2025/8/6 was $821.00 per ton, with no change [1] - Ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/8/8 was 6300.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/8/7 was 2387.50 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia (Q3500) on 2025/8/7 was 290.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - DCE EG main contract closing price on 2025/8/7 was 4396.00 yuan per ton, down 0.41% [1] - DCE EG main contract settlement price on 2025/8/7 was 4412.00 yuan per ton, up 0.02% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on 2025/8/7 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - DCE EG near - month contract settlement price on 2025/8/7 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Market intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China on 2025/8/7 was 4470.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol on 2025/8/7 was 4465.00 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/8/7 was - 5.00 yuan per ton, a change of - 1.00 [1] - Basis on 2025/8/7 was 69.00 yuan per ton, a change of - 7.00 [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/8/7 was 8600.00 yuan per ton, down 0.29% [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/8/7 was 7150.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/8/7 was 6480.00 yuan per ton, down 0.15% [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/8/7 was 5940.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Group 4: Operating Conditions Summary - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate on 2025/8/7 was 58.15%, down 1.39% [1] - The operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/7 was 59.39%, unchanged [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/7 was 56.36%, down 3.40% [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/8/7 was 87.09%, unchanged [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of weaving machines in Zhejiang on 2025/8/7 was 57.83%, unchanged [1] Group 5: Cash Flow and Gross Margin Summary - External market naphtha - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/6 had a value of - 96.02 dollars per ton, a change of - 4.54 [1] - External market ethylene - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/6 was - 108.65 dollars per ton, a change of - 3.00 [1] - MTO - made MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/8/7 was - 1531.01 yuan per ton, a change of - 7.05 [1] - Coal - based synthesis gas method after - tax device gross profit on 2025/8/7 was 559.29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.70 [1]

Group 1: Price Information - The current price of crude oil is $84.63 per ton, with a previous price of $83.88 and a change of 1.9% [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is $821 per ton, with no change [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China is $6300 per ton, with no change [1] - The price of methanol is $2377.5 per ton, with no change [1] - The price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia is $290 per ton, with no change [1] - The closing price of the main contract of a certain product is $4389 per ton, with a previous price of $4400 and a change of - 0.36% [1] - The settlement price of the main contract is $4375 per ton, with a previous price of $4406 and a change of 0% [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract is $4400 per ton, with no change [1] - The settlement price of the near - month contract is $4400 per ton, with no change [1] - The intermediate price of ethylene glycol in the domestic market is $4480 per ton, with no change [1] - The price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market is $4460 per ton, with a previous price of $4480 and a change of - 0.33% [1] - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts is $32 per ton, with a previous difference of $31 and a change of $1 [1] - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol is $76 per ton, with a previous price of $75 and a change of $1 [1] - The price index of polyester is $8625 per ton, with no change [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber is $6100 per ton, with a previous price of $6600 and a change of - 7.6% [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips is $5900 per ton, with a previous price of $5950 and a change of - 0.84% [1] Group 2: Production and Operation Information - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol is 59.42%, with no change [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol is 93%, with no change [1] - The production chain load rate of PTA factories is 86.1%, with no change [1] - The production chain load rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA industry is 57.83%, with no change [1] Group 3: External Market Information - The price of oil - based ethylene glycol in the external market is $1114.1 per ton, with a previous price of $1106.85 and a certain situation [1] - The price of ethylene in the external market is $111.6 per ton, with a previous price of $108.65 and a certain situation [1] Group 4: Profit Information - The post - tax gross profit of a certain coal - based synthetic gas method device is $1533.05 per ton, with a previous profit of $1545.27 and a change of - $12.22 [1]

Group 1: Upstream Costs - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/8/1 was $604.00 per ton, down 1.15% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on 2025/8/1 was $821.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of cycloethane in East China on 220//458 was 6300.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/8/1 was 2392.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Pit - mouth price of brown coal (tax - included) in Inner Mongolia (Q3500) on 2025/8/1 was 290.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Group 2: Futures and Spot Prices - DCE EG主力合约 closing price on 2025/8/1 was 4405.00 yuan per ton, down 0.20% [1] - DCE EG主力合约 settlement price on 2025/8/1 was 4406.00 yuan per ton, down 0.59% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on 2025/8/1 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, up 0.89% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract settlement price on 2025/8/1 was 4407.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Market mid - price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China on 2025/8/1 was 4480.00 yuan per ton, down 0.22% [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic market on 2025/8/1 was 4480.00 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/8/1 was 1.00 yuan per ton, down 26.00 yuan [1] - Basis on 2025/8/1 was 75.00 yuan per ton, up 4.00 yuan [1] Group 3: Operating Conditions - Comprehensive ethylene glycol operating rate on 220//158 was 518.8%, up 0.68% [1] - Operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/1 was 59.42%, up 0.44% [1] - Operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on 2025/8/1 was 57.93%, up 1.04% [1] - PTA industrial chain polyester factory load rate on 2025/8/1 was 86.15%, down 0.13% [1] - PTA industrial chain Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate on 2025/8/1 was 57.83%, unchanged [1] Group 4: Cash Flow and Polyester Prices - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made EG on 2025/8/1 was - 1545.27 yuan per ton, down 39.33 yuan [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - synthetic gas method device on 2025/8/1 was 610.18 yuan per ton, down 8.85 yuan [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/8/1 was 8625.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/8/1 was 7150.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 220//158 was 6560.00 yuan per ton, down 0.53% [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/8/1 was 5950.00 yuan per ton, down 0.67% [1]

Report Highlights - Since no investment rating for the industry is provided, this part is skipped. - As there is no clear core view presented, this part is skipped. Price and Market Information - On July 31, 2025, the price of refined naphtha was $608.30 per ton, up 3.23% from the previous day [1] - As of July 29, 2025, the price index of Northeast Asia ethylene was $821.00 per ton, showing no change [1] - On July 31, 2025, the ex - factory price of East China ethylene oxide was 6,450 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the spot price of methanol was 2,405 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the pit - mouth price of Inner Mongolia lignite (Q3500) was 290 yuan per ton, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of GD was 4,450 yuan per ton, down 0.38% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the settlement price of the main contract of GD was 4,465 yuan per ton, up 0.34% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the closing price of the nearby contract of GD was 4,423 yuan per ton, up 0.02% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the settlement price of the nearby contract of GD was 4,420 yuan per ton, up 0.07% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the mid - market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,520 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of ethylene glycol was 4,515 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the price difference between far and near months was - 45 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the basis was 65 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan [1] Operating Conditions - As of July 30, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 58.13%, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of ethylene glycol from naphtha was 58.98%, with no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the operating rate of ethylene glycol from coal was 56.89%, remaining unchanged [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the production load rate of polyester plants in the APT industry chain was 86.28%, showing no change [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the production load rate of textile machines in Zhejiang in the APT industry chain was 58.75%, with no change [1] Cash Flow and Profitability - As of July 29, 2025, the external market profit of ethylene glycol from naphtha was - $95.29 per ton, a decrease of $12.09 [1] - As of July 29, 2025, the external market profit of ethylene glycol from ethylene was - $103.65 per ton, an increase of $3.00 [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the post - tax gross profit of G produced by MMT was - 1,573.30 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.79 yuan [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the post - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas unit was 667.70 yuan per ton, with no change [1] Polyester Price Index - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of polyester yarn was 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.29% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of POY polyester yarn was 7,150 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,610 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,000 yuan per ton, showing no change [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of the coal industry with a "Recommended" investment rating, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coal International, and Datong Energy [7]. Core Insights - The coal industry is expected to undergo a new round of value reassessment due to an expanding supply-demand gap, which is likely to push coal prices upward [7][6]. - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, with significant contributions from Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, while Shanxi faces production declines due to regulatory constraints [3][4]. - The demand for coal remains relatively rigid, primarily driven by the power sector, which accounts for 55% of total coal consumption, alongside strong growth in chemical industry demand [4][6]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic raw coal production is projected to reach 4.76 billion tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, significantly lower than the five-year compound growth rate of 4.36% [3]. - Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are the main contributors to production increases, with expected increments of 8.1 million tons and 6.6 million tons respectively in 2024 [3][32]. - Shanxi's coal production is expected to decline by 6.9% in 2024 due to regulatory measures aimed at controlling overproduction [3][43]. Demand Side Summary - Total coal consumption in China is forecasted to reach 4.84 billion tons in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year, with the power sector's coal usage increasing by 2.64% to 2.65 billion tons [4][6]. - The chemical sector shows robust growth in coal demand, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%, while the construction materials sector is expected to see a decline of 5.05% [4][6]. - Coal exports are anticipated to rise significantly, with a projected increase of 49.1% year-on-year, reaching 6.66 million tons in 2024 [4]. Supply-Demand Outlook - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen over the next few years, with projected deficits of 0.63 million tons in 2025, 1.50 million tons in 2026, and 2.29 million tons in 2027 [6]. - Coal prices are likely to rise as domestic production growth is constrained by regulatory measures and the dual carbon goals of peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality [6][7]. Company Focus and Profit Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, with China Shenhua rated as "Buy" and others currently un-rated [9].