来源：天弘基金 （原标题：天弘基金张戈：通信设备指数为何大幅回调又快速反弹？） ...

Core Viewpoint - The communication equipment industry is experiencing strong growth driven by the deep integration with AI, with the communication equipment index showing a daily increase of over 8% as of 14:45 [3]. Group 1: Growth Drivers - The communication equipment sector has nearly doubled in value over the past year, primarily due to the explosive demand for AI computing power, which has created a "hardware infrastructure dividend" [6]. - The capital expenditure from internet and cloud companies is increasingly focused on upstream components such as optical modules, switches, and servers, with an estimated investment of hundreds of billions of dollars translating into orders and revenue for leading suppliers [6]. - The virtuous cycle of "investment - profit - reinvestment" is being reinforced by the anticipated rollout of various AI applications from 2024 to 2025, further strengthening market demand [6]. Group 2: Index Composition and Weighting - The communication equipment index consists of 50 upstream equipment manufacturers in the communication field, reflecting the industry's development comprehensively [7]. - Approximately 70% of the index's weight is concentrated in the optical communication sector, including optical modules, optical devices, and supporting chips, highlighting the core role of optical communication in current infrastructure [7]. - The index allocates about 10% to IoT terminals and modules, covering popular applications such as new energy vehicles and smart homes, while less than 10% is allocated to offshore wind cable segments [7]. Group 3: Valuation Analysis and Investment Outlook - The current valuation of the communication equipment index is at the 80th percentile over the past decade, indicating a high static valuation but not yet at a bubble level [8]. - It is expected that the valuation will be absorbed by performance over the next 2 to 3 quarters, suggesting significant growth potential for the industry [8]. - The government's "Artificial Intelligence + Action Plan" aims to accelerate the construction of intelligent networks and computing infrastructure, providing significant benefits to the communication sector and acting as a direct catalyst for the index's rise [8]. - Anticipation of new product launches from tech giants, such as Apple's upcoming fall event, is expected to drive demand for AI terminal applications and high-speed communication modules, benefiting leading companies in the optical module and equipment sectors [8].