今日A股与港股市场同步承压，呈现"成长退潮、周期防御"的结构性特征。A股三大指数全线回调，科 技与新能源赛道遭遇重挫，而顺周期板块逆势走强；港股则在科技权重股拖累下延续调整，恒生科技指 数创阶段性最大单日跌幅。资金避险情绪升温，板块轮动速度加快。 展望后市，当前市场处于震荡整固阶段，短期需关注三季报业绩验证与政策面变化。尽管科技成长赛道 遭遇回调，但"十五五"规划预热期临近，新质生产力、高端制造等政策支持方向的长期逻辑未改，叠加 全球流动性宽松预期，结构性机会仍值得布局。 主要指数表现 A股市场日内呈现"沪强深弱"分化格局。上证指数低开低走，收盘失守3900点整数关口，报3897.03点， 跌幅0.94%；深证成指受新能源板块拖累跌2.7%，创业板指大跌4.55%，科创50指数重挫5.61%，创年内 次大单日跌幅。全市场上涨个股2774家，下跌2536家，涨停72家，跌停15家，局部赚钱效应仍存。资金 面呈现大幅净流出态势，主力资金单日净流出929.6亿元，科技成长板块成为抛压主要方向。 行业热点与驱动逻辑 A股顺周期板块展现较强防御性。建筑材料板块领涨，受《建材行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026 年）》 ...

"AI带来巨大且持续生产力增长的预测可能无法实现。" 得益于人们对人工智能（AI）促进增长潜力的兴奋，科技行业正在蓬勃发展。 但如果科技行业未能达到预期，AI会不会重蹈互联网泡沫的覆辙？ 近期，各大国际机构、投行在观察到AI相关产品支出的增加提振全球经济和贸易的同时，也对AI带来 的资本热潮正推动科技股估值快速攀升发出警示。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格奥尔基耶娃近期表示，全球股价在对AI提升生产率潜力的乐观情绪推 动下飙升，但金融状况可能突然转向，当前估值"正逼近25年前互联网热潮的水平"，若市场发生剧烈回 调，将拖累全球增长。 德意志银行（下称"德银"）最近的研究报告显示，AI热潮正在帮助美国经济避免陷入衰退，但这种状况 无法无限期持续。 德银全球外汇研究主管萨拉韦洛斯（George Saravelos）表示，如果没有大型科技企业大量投资建设新 AI数据中心，美国今年将接近经济衰退。 牛津经济研究院也在最新报告中警示，科技行业一直是近期美国经济增长的主要驱动力，其股价飙升， 并在设备和软件方面投入巨资。"但如果科技行业遭遇衰退，美国将面临风险：如果没有科技投资，到 2025年上半年，美国国内生产总值（ ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTE Corporation (00763) has seen a significant stock price increase, reaching a historical high of 43.88 HKD, driven by positive market sentiment regarding its position in the DICT (Data, Information, Communication Technology) sector and anticipated benefits from AI development [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - ZTE's stock rose over 8% in early trading, peaking at 43.88 HKD, and is currently up 6.08% at 42.9 HKD with a trading volume of 28.55 billion HKD [1]. Group 2: Industry Position and Growth Potential - ZTE is recognized as a rare global provider of end-to-end DICT communication equipment solutions, with products spanning wireless, wired, cloud computing, terminal products, and professional communication services, serving over 160 countries and regions [1]. - The company aims to become a leader in network connectivity and intelligent computing power, positioning itself to benefit from the growth of AI [1]. - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase their capital expenditures (Capex) significantly, with a projected total exceeding 370 billion USD by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 60% [1]. - In China, leading companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu are anticipated to exceed 360 billion CNY in Capex, while China Mobile plans to invest 37.3 billion CNY in computing power by 2025, with China Telecom and China Unicom also increasing their investments by 22% and 28% year-on-year, respectively [1]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - ZTE holds a 21% market share in the telecom operator market for servers, ranking first [2]. - The company has nearly 30 years of experience in self-developed chips and is one of the few domestic companies to mass-produce 7nm and introduce 5nm chips, offering a one-stop design service from chip design to mass production [2]. - ZTE has developed its own 5nm process CPU chips and is planning the next generation of switching chips, leveraging its accumulated networking technology to create competitive data center supernode solutions compatible with various GPU/ASIC chips [2].

而令人意外的是，尽管外界首先关注62号公告，但其实惊喜藏在61号公告中：所有需使用14纳米以下逻 辑芯片、256层以上存储器或各类AI专用芯片的稀土，都必须经过逐项批准。这种举措对韩国公司三星 的高端存储产能造成直接影响。据传言，openAI已经几乎占领了三星的高速颗粒，若再遭遇原料短缺， 显卡和服务器等产品都将受到延误。 美国在经历大豆和高粱问题之后，又面临了另一波更为严峻的挑战：稀土。中国商务部于10月9日发布 了两份文件，其中最引人关注的是第62号公告：从采矿、冶炼到磁材加工所涉及的数据、软件、设备维 护全被列入"禁止出口"名单，以确保自主权掌握在中国手中。 公告还明确表示："未经允许，任何个人不得将实质性技术输出至海外，否则将面临处罚。"这不只是空 话。有企业私下打算向F/A-XX舰载机项目提供原料以加速产能，此举现在被明令禁止。 因此，华盛顿只能采取"多元供应+囤积"策略，但这一策略的执行效果如何？过去十年里，许多新的稀 土矿和项目要么停滞不前，要么预算高达天价，内部斗争是最大阻碍。换言之，"问题"可能不仅存在于 太平洋的彼岸，更可能隐藏在他们自家的办公室里。 通过此轮调整可以看出：稀土不仅是资源， ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 行业配置观点：成长占优有望延续，关注景气行业 近期市场表现出较强的结构性特征，热点集中在成长板块。 由于前期市场成交迅速放大、交易集中，8月底后A股市场进入盘整震荡期，但不乏结构亮 点。海外AI算力的强劲需求持续被印证，中国能源转型目标较为清晰，在全球产业链上的定位决定了中国以制造业大国的角色参与技术革命，我们认为推 动制造升级将是中长期趋势，正在催化股票市场的结构性机会。 市场有望延续稳健表现，关注"十五五"规划建议。 展望节后，十一假期期间港股表现和出行数据相对平稳，国内外AI产业进展密集发布、国内工业企业 利润增速回暖，节后"十五五"规划市场政策预期有望升温，我们认为去年924以来A股震荡上涨趋势有望延续。 分别看各大类行业的景气表现：1）能源及基础材料：有色金属延续涨势，其余周期品价格表现分化，钢铁、石化化工、建材等行业稳增长工作方案发 布，有望推动供给趋于理性。 9月动力煤、水泥指数、玻璃指数价格分别上涨1.3%、0.6%、2.4%，焦煤、焦炭、螺纹钢、铁矿石、化工指数分别下跌 2.2%、1.2%、2.0%、0.9%、1.3%，有色金属、钢铁、石化化工、建材等行业2025~2 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Macquarie analysts suggest that if the Federal Reserve makes a significant policy error under political pressure, gold prices could surge further, potentially achieving the best annual performance since the 1970s, with prices possibly reaching $4,000 [1] - TD Securities forecasts that gold prices may exceed $4,400 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by the Fed's easing policies and ongoing purchases by central banks and private funds, despite warnings of potential short-term corrections due to overbought conditions [2] - Citigroup indicates that the overall sentiment in the oil market remains bearish, with differing opinions on the extent of price declines, while geopolitical risks complicate large-scale short positions [3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Outlook - Rabobank maintains that despite challenges to the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset, it remains a primary choice for investors, supported by the depth of U.S. capital markets [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are unlikely to significantly impact the dollar's trajectory, as future economic data will play a more decisive role [5] - Danske Bank raises concerns about potential intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of Japan due to the significant depreciation of the yen [6] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - ANZ analysts report that recent supply disruptions have eroded market confidence, leading to a slight increase in copper prices, with Teck Resources lowering its production forecast [7] - Man Group warns that a weak dollar and high U.S. Treasury yields may deepen the trend of underperformance in the U.S. stock market, suggesting a rebalancing of asset allocations towards Europe and emerging markets [8] Group 4: Domestic Market Developments - Dongfang Jincheng anticipates that the central bank will conduct another six-month reverse repurchase operation in October, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [9] - CITIC Securities highlights that the A-share market is likely to maintain an upward trend, driven by stable economic fundamentals and continued inflows of capital [10] - CITIC Securities also notes the acceleration of domestic AI computing capabilities, recommending attention to leading firms in this sector [11]

中兴通讯（000063.SZ） 优于大市 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月09日 致力于"成为网络连接和智能算力的领导者"，有望受益 AI 发展。（1）算 力方面：大模型持续迭代，AI 需求持续增长，全球各大 CSP 云厂均加大 AI 算力基础设施投入，预计 2025 年，海外亚马逊、谷歌 、微软 、Meta、甲 骨文等厂商合计 Capex 超过 3700 亿美元，同比增幅超 60%；国内字节、腾讯、 阿里、百度等 Capex 有望超过 3600 亿元，中国移动预计 2025 年在算力领域 投入 373 亿元，电信和联通在算力领域投入同比分别增长 22%和 28%。根据 通信产业网数据，中兴通讯服务器在电信运营商市场份额占比 21%，名列第 一。此外公司已与字节、阿里、百度等云厂展开深度定制的服务器合作。（2） 连接方面：运营商持续布局 5G-A 网络，近期工信部给三大运营商发放卫星 通信牌照，未来面向 6G 通信网络蓄势待发。根据 Delloro 和 Omdia 咨询机 构数据，中兴通讯无线通信市场竞争力仍然位列全球头部（仅次于华为/爱 立信/诺基亚）。此外，5G 网络拉动的 FWA(Fixed Wire ...

"不沿江、不沿淮、不靠海"，没有禀赋资源，曾经的内陆"腹地"城市合肥，如今在互联网上是名副其实 的"网红城市"，"科里科气"、"芯屏汽合"、"集终生智"，网友们各种调侃背后，反映了合肥紧抓科技这 一"关键变量"、实现产业快速转型升级，在科技与产业深度融合中走出了一条高质量发展之路。 金秋时节，合肥市委网信办主办了"信心合肥"——长三角主流网络媒体调研行活动。扬子晚报/紫牛新 闻记者和长三角的数十家主流媒体记者一起，走进了合肥，几天时间里，记者实地探访了世界制造业大 会现场、合肥合翼航空、亿帆医药（002019）、派能科技等点位，深切感受到合肥以独特的产业投资方 式和科技创新模式，孕育出高质量发展"最大增量"，以科创之城姿态展示出强劲发展势头。 "低空翱翔" 经济新翼 "嗡……"，伴随一声呼啸，在世界最大的城市公园之一——合肥骆岗公园城市空中交通运营中心停机坪 上，电动垂直起降航空器（eVTOL）瞬间升空，旁边的"航站楼"大厅里，售票系统已经就绪，这意味着 普通市民很快将能够体验空中出行。 联想是"制造业皖军"的主力队员，2011年在合肥投资建设的制造基地已经成长为联想全球制造的重镇， 去年全年工业产值达到10 ...

科技专场-2025 研究框架线上培训 摘要 计算机板块经历了四个阶段，从 2013-2015 年的互联网+到 2018 年 底的低谷，再到信创产业的兴起，目前正处于第四段牛市行情，受政策 推动和市场预期带动，板块波动性大，涨跌幅度显著。 信创产业受益于国产替代政策，但发展与政府及国央企投资密切相关， 具有周期性。2022 年国务院 79 号文推动办公软件替换，计划 2027 年 前完成，为相关企业带来机会，同时也带来周期性波动。 软件行业高估值源于边际扩张成本低，但中国市场定制化需求导致毛利 率低于海外。纯产品化公司毛利率 70%-80%，解决方案类 40%- 60%，外包类 10%-20%，集成类低于 10%。 AI 应用和算力端发展趋势良好，日 TOKEN 调用量从 2024 年 1 月至今 增长 300 多倍。国产算力占比提升，预计将从 85%的英伟达下降到 40%-50%，国产算力具有高景气成长潜力。 全球 Token 消耗量仍在高速增长，各大厂商对 Token 消耗量的预期增 长仍然是 10 倍左右。AI 对传统应用软件的赋能推动了 Token 消耗量的 大幅增加，如炒股软件和谷歌生态体系。 Q&A ...

Core Insights - The communication equipment industry experienced a revenue growth of 12.7% year-on-year in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery that began in Q4 2023, with AI computing power emerging as a new growth engine [1][2] - The net profit for the communication equipment sector grew by 19.0% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reflecting strong profitability amid the transition of growth drivers [1][2] Financial Summary and Outlook - The overall revenue for communication equipment in Q2 2025 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, with growth accelerating from Q4 2023 to Q3 2024, indicating a successful transition between old and new growth drivers [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q2 2025 rose by 19.0% year-on-year, showing consistent growth in Q1 and Q2 2025 after a decline in Q4 2024 [2] Key Industry Segments to Watch - The optical device segment saw a remarkable revenue growth of 72.81% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with net profit growth of 133.5%, driven by increased global demand for AI and optical modules [3] - The Internet of Things (IoT) sector continued to show good revenue growth in Q2 2025, confirming the ongoing recovery trend, with companies benefiting from the long-term trend of interconnected devices [3] - The fiber optic cable sub-sector reported a revenue increase of 16.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, although net profit declined by 9.6% [4] - The main equipment sector reversed its downward trend in Q1 and Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for computing power, despite challenges in operator capital expenditures [5] - The satellite industry generated revenue of 1.12 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down 17.0% year-on-year, but is expected to enter a phase of regular launches following the establishment of satellite internet [5] - The Beidou and military communication sectors reported revenue of 5.31 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a decline of 7.1% year-on-year, but are anticipated to recover with new equipment entering service [5] Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on investment opportunities in "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" sectors, particularly in optical modules and devices, as well as domestic computing power lines [6] - Key recommendations include companies in the optical device sector such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication, and in the server and switch PCB sectors like Huadian Co. and ZTE [7] - The report highlights the potential of the satellite internet industry and encourages monitoring developments in this area [6][10]