经济放缓周期，让中产陷入困境的，从来不是月薪从5万降到3万，生活品质就从5万降到3万的问题。 而是月薪5万时，就已经以5万为基准，透支了未来十年，二十年的收入。 由于债务的支出是刚性的，所以月薪下降后，现金流可能就转负数了，这时就只能卖房向全社会要流动性。 我们知道，在楼市，占比总房源1%的交易量，其边际交易价格，决定了整个楼市的市值，以及房价的涨跌。 所以，即使只是一小部分人收入下行，扛不住负向现金流，导致他们卖房回收流动性，就会引起房价的涨跌大周期。 因此，我们把居民收入，以及居民对自己收入的未来预期，称之为楼市的核心基本面。 核心基本面决定了楼市的涨跌，以及合理价格。 在合理价格之上，居民对楼市的涨跌预期，又决定了楼市在合理价格上的超涨或超跌。 比如，即使房价已经达到了居民收入匹配的水平，但如果所有人都认为房价会涨，那么价格就会超涨，反之，价格也会超跌。 大家知道，现在互联网上，大体都是同一种声音，也就是看涨，并且这种声音，已经影响到居民预期，所以超跌的可能性，已经不复存在。 那么根据我们统计的结果，沪深300和中证500在历经了从2021年开始的4年的营收增速持续下滑并转负后，在2025年三季度，我们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the apparent contradiction between nominal and real GDP growth rates and disposable income growth rates, highlighting the implications for inflation and housing prices in China [1][22]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected at 3.99%, while the real GDP growth rate is expected to be 5% [1]. - Disposable income growth rates show both nominal and real figures at 5% for 2025, indicating stable consumer prices [1]. - The difference between nominal GDP and real GDP is a critical indicator for determining inflation; when nominal GDP exceeds real GDP, it signals inflation [1][22]. Group 2: Inflation and Housing Market - The article emphasizes that the transition from deflation to inflation is indicated by the positive difference between nominal GDP and real GDP, which is essential for supporting consumer spending and housing prices [1][22]. - Historical data from Japan illustrates that a positive shift in the nominal GDP minus real GDP often precedes a rise in housing prices [3][22]. - Current trends show that the difference between nominal GDP and real GDP has turned negative but is narrowing, suggesting potential future inflation [4][24]. Group 3: Demographic Factors - The birth rate in 2025 is projected to be 7.92 million, which poses long-term implications for housing demand and prices [7][25]. - There is a noted negative correlation between housing prices and birth rates, indicating that higher housing costs may deter family growth [8][25]. - The article argues that stabilizing housing prices at levels affordable for young people is crucial for reversing declining birth rates [25]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The article suggests that maintaining affordable housing prices is essential for improving birth rates and that this can be achieved through careful economic policies, including the potential introduction of property taxes after a market stabilization [25].