Core Insights - Current market sentiment is rapidly warming, with investors showing increased confidence in the "cyclical style return" [1] - There is an emerging expectation that, with the clear mainline of anti-involution policies, the second half of the year may open a "transition window" into a deflation quadrant [1] - The rapid strengthening of this expectation is prompting a potential style shift in the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Over the past three years, bonds, as typical "deflation assets," have experienced a super bull market, leading many institutions and funds to heavily invest in bonds, bank stocks, and downgraded consumer goods, resulting in a highly concentrated position in deflation assets [1] - As the macro investment clock begins to turn, the market is collectively reducing positions in deflation assets and shifting towards non-deflation or even inflation assets [1] Group 2: Risks and Strategies - There is a warning that without strategic adjustments made in advance, investors may face liquidity shocks during the reallocation of funds [1] - The core risk facing the bond market is highlighted as the lack of buying power when the market collectively sells off, which may force investors to pay a negative feedback premium to exit [1] - Recent weakness in government bond futures prices subtly conveys this pressure [1]

Group 1 - The core task of the highest decision-making meeting has elevated the goal of anti-involution, which is expected to enhance market confidence through effective policy execution [2] - The current market sentiment is rapidly warming, with investors showing significant confidence in the return of "pro-cyclical style" as the anti-involution policy becomes clearer [4] - The annual investment in the childcare subsidy program has exceeded 100 billion, indicating strong fiscal support for young families and potential for stimulating domestic demand [3] Group 2 - The pro-cyclical sectors, which are highly represented in the A-share market, are expected to gain significant relative advantages as policies shift [2] - The institutionalization and circulation of data assets are seen as key directions for constructing a new factor system, which may drive the digital economy transformation [5] - High-end manufacturing, particularly in robotics and solid-state battery industries, is anticipated to achieve rapid breakthroughs in commercialization and industrialization [6] Group 3 - The current capital market in China is nurturing a "low wavelength flow" new bull market, driven by trust accumulation rather than emotional outbursts [7] - The market's main trend is determined by investor confidence and risk appetite, rather than sustained profit growth [7] - The expectation of a policy shift towards pro-cyclical assets may lead to a revaluation of the bond market as a "deflation asset" [4]