相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 张知来 A0230125070002 zhangzl@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 略 研 究 2026 年 02 月 28 日 也谈谈"HALO 交易" ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(26/02/23-26/02/28) 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 策 一 周 回 顾 展 望 - ⚫ 一、也谈谈"HALO 交易"：市场开始集中推演，AI 时代产业组织形式可能发生的变化。 可能被 AI 替代的行业 + 在 AI 时代壁垒弱化，超额利润可能压缩的行业 + 在 AI 时代 可能 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of living in deflationary regions while investing in inflationary assets, highlighting the potential benefits of such a strategy [1][2][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - Inflation benefits asset prices, leading to capital gains, while deflation can lower living costs [1]. - The article contrasts the experiences of individuals in high inflation countries versus those in deflationary environments, emphasizing the advantages of the latter for investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 2: Case Studies - Switzerland and Japan are cited as examples where residents benefit from living in deflationary environments while investing in inflationary assets [5][7][8]. - Swiss residents have historically invested in USD assets or emerging market funds, capitalizing on the appreciation of the Swiss franc [7]. - Japanese high-net-worth individuals have shifted their wealth to overseas investments post-bubble, favoring US bonds and stocks [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Successful investment strategies require cross-border asset allocation, stable living costs, and detachment from local inflation [6][11]. - The article outlines seven categories of inflationary assets, including precious metals, commodities, high pricing power stocks, emerging market equities, inflation-linked bonds, rental real estate, and policy-driven assets like technology stocks in China [12][19][21]. Group 4: Inflation as an Investment Principle - Inflation is presented as a fundamental principle that underpins investment returns, with historical perspectives from notable investors like Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett emphasizing its significance [22].

Core Insights - Current market sentiment is rapidly warming, with investors showing increased confidence in the "cyclical style return" [1] - There is an emerging expectation that, with the clear mainline of anti-involution policies, the second half of the year may open a "transition window" into a deflation quadrant [1] - The rapid strengthening of this expectation is prompting a potential style shift in the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Over the past three years, bonds, as typical "deflation assets," have experienced a super bull market, leading many institutions and funds to heavily invest in bonds, bank stocks, and downgraded consumer goods, resulting in a highly concentrated position in deflation assets [1] - As the macro investment clock begins to turn, the market is collectively reducing positions in deflation assets and shifting towards non-deflation or even inflation assets [1] Group 2: Risks and Strategies - There is a warning that without strategic adjustments made in advance, investors may face liquidity shocks during the reallocation of funds [1] - The core risk facing the bond market is highlighted as the lack of buying power when the market collectively sells off, which may force investors to pay a negative feedback premium to exit [1] - Recent weakness in government bond futures prices subtly conveys this pressure [1]